AFL Rd 14 Talking Pts: Bizarre ladder proof that almost nobody out of finals race; post-bye blues hit hard

It was a weekend that seemed costly for would-be finals contenders – but one look at the ladder shows that’s wrong.

Plus the post-bye blues hit hard, the Richmond recruit surging into the Brownlow mix and the strange issue that’s easy to fix.

The big issues from Round 14 of the 2023 AFL season analysed in Talking Points!

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BIZARRE LADDER PROOF THAT ALMOST NOBODY OUT OF FINALS RACE

It was the same old story all weekend.

Geelong loses? Well, they’re done. Can’t play finals from here.

Sydney loses? Season over. Just book your holiday now.

Fremantle loses? Jeez, that’s SO costly. They won’t be making it back to September.

Gold Coast loses? More proof they can’t be trusted and will never play finals, ever, because they’re cursed.

And don’t forget Carlton, who were already done before their win over the aforementioned Suns.

Just hang on a bit. Because when everyone ‘can’t play finals’… maybe one of them still can?

The AFL ladder sits in a strange position after 14 rounds. A few more teams still need to have their bye, so it’s a bit jumbled, but there’s something clear – nobody outside the eight is in a great spot.

For the first time since 2016, every team outside the eight has a losing record at this point of the season. Richmond sits ninth, with six wins, seven losses and a draw, but they’ve had the advantage of an extra game.

Then you’ve got the morass of teams also on six wins – Geelong, Gold Coast and Fremantle, plus GWS having played an extra game), and the five-win sides Carlton and Sydney.

The slow race for the eight

8. Adelaide Crows (7-6, 116.5%)

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9. Richmond (6-7-1, 102.4%)

10. Geelong (6-7, 113.6%)

11. GWS Giants (6-8, 97%)

12. Gold Coast Suns (6-7, 94.7%)

13. Fremantle (6-7, 94.3%)

14. Carlton (5-8-1, 98.1%)

15. Sydney Swans (5-8, 98.3%)

Typically you don’t play finals from those sorts of records, because you need to finish with 12 or 13 wins to make the eight, and because you need to pass teams ahead of you on the ladder with more wins in the bank.

But this year, the latter isn’t that much of a problem (because nobody outside the eight has a winning record), and it should be easier to catch the team in eighth.

That’s currently Adelaide, who are 7-6 with a strong percentage of 116.5, but they play Collingwood away next week – a likely loss.

So that’s the target team the Cats, Suns, Dockers etc need to catch; a side that’s probably going to be 7-7 and famously inconsistent, especially away from home.

We can put some numbers on this. Between 1995 and 2019, just 30 per cent of 6-7 teams played finals, compared to 57 per cent of 7-6 teams – you’re almost doubling your chances with that extra win.

But the next game is massive. Just 11 per cent of 6-8 teams played finals, while 48 per cent of 7-7 teams played finals. (64 per cent of 8-6 teams played finals. Also, it’s worth pointing out these numbers are for a 22-game season, not 23.)

So yes, the Crows would be favourites to hang onto their current spot in the eight, but they’re certainly gettable. And the chasing pack is very compact.

This finals race is feeling very similar to 2021, when after 14 rounds everyone outside the eight except ninth-placed GWS had a losing record.

That year, the Giants (6-6-1) and Essendon (6-7) were ninth and 10th, but ended up making the eight… with just 11 wins apiece.

It is extremely uncommon to make the eight with 11 wins (and will be even more uncommon in the expanded 23-game seasons we’re now playing), but that just shows how when everyone is losing, the bar gets lowered.

So if you’re Geelong (6-7), you can absolutely still plot a path to September – beat Sydney (away), North Melbourne (home), Essendon (home), Fremantle (home), St Kilda (away) and the Bulldogs (home), and that’s 12 wins. That could well be enough.

You can plot a path to 12 for Fremantle – beat Essendon (home), Carlton (home), Sydney (home), West Coast, Hawthorn (away), and maybe one of the Bulldogs (away) or Brisbane (home).

Heck, there’s one for Gold Coast too – beat Hawthorn (home), St Kilda (home), GWS (away), Sydney (away), Carlton (home) and North Melbourne (away).

They aren’t easy paths, but they exist, especially because there’s not a lot of strong competition around or right above them.

IS THE POST-BYE HOODOO REAL?

Call it what you want, but clubs’ struggles after their bye have continued in 2023 (for now, at least).

So far five of the total six clubs coming off their bye – Brisbane, Fremantle, Sydney, Gold Coast and Geelong – lost in their next game.

The only side to win was St Kilda, who played a fellow post-bye team in Sydney, so one of them had to get up!

Whether it’s rust, teams being slightly off the boil, their opposition being more battle worn – or just pure chance and circumstantial – post-bye struggles appear to be a real thing … history suggests as much.

In numbers shown by AFL Media earlier this month based on data from the past 10 years, clubs had an overall winning percentage of 46.67 per cent immediately after their bye (83-95-1).

Through the three bye rounds in 2023, that winning percentage has now dropped to 45.68 per cent.

Only four clubs have a winning record after their bye – Hawthorn (7-4), Richmond (7-4), St Kilda (7-4) and Fremantle (6-5) – none of which are overly convincing.

Meanwhile the two clubs that had the worst records after the break – the Cats and Suns – saw their woes continue, with the latter falling to an AFL-worst 2-9 overall – and a big blow to their 2023 finals hopes.

In saying this, there’s still 12 teams to come off a bye over the next fortnight where they’ll hope to go against the grain.

At least one of them will win next week, with Round 14 bye sides Collingwood and Adelaide facing each other, while Melbourne (vs Geelong), Essendon (vs Fremantle), West Coast (vs Sydney) and Hawthorn (vs Gold Coast) will try to buck the trend.

TARANTO PROVING MORE DOUBTERS WRONG WITH BROWNLOW SURGE

Has anyone won a Brownlow Medal while not being one of the 150 best players in the comp?

Richmond’s Tim Taranto just keeps building into a tremendous season, inspiring the Tigers to a third straight win on Saturday night.

And you could argue he’s now the AFL’s in-form player.

Taranto is averaging 35.2 disposals, 7.6 clearances, 6.4 tackles and 1.8 goals over his last five games, putting him in the top few Brownlow contenders according to oddsmakers.

Because he has played an extra game compared to Nick Daicos, he also leads the AFL in disposals overall, though just a standard game from the Magpies young gun would see him regain the lead.

Of course Taranto is much more of a contested player than Daicos; the Tigers midfielder has had around 30 more disposals than the next-ranked player of his type, GWS’ Tom Green.

While the actual damage of his disposals was questioned in the early stages of the season he has turned that around, hurting opponents where it counts including with one of the daggers in the final term on Saturday night against St Kilda.

“You reckon he’ll be up there, in the Brownlow Medal race?” champion forward Eddie Betts asked on Fox Footy post-game.

Brisbane great Jonathan Brown replied: “If they win games in the back end of the year, no doubt … he’s certainly been very good. And very consistent, most consistent Tigers performer this season.”

Taranto was of course excellent at times at the Giants, most notably in 2019 when he won a best and fairest in just his third season – and in a Grand Final year, no less. He also polled 15 Brownlow votes in 2021.

But it’s safe to say this is the year Taranto has emerged into the public consciousness as a genuine A-grader – partially because of Kane Cornes’ commentary, and partially because of Richmond being a more popular club than GWS… but also because he’s just been that damn good.

SIMPLE FIX TO AFL EPIDEMIC

AFL players have been urged to change their shoes so they can stop constantly slipping over during games.

In 2020 it was reiterated metal studs or screw-ins were banned after Collingwood’s Isaac Quaynor had to be stretchered off following severe cuts copped by impact with the boots of Sydney’s Sam Wicks.

A $40,000 fine can be handed out for wearing the illegal stops.

But Kane Cornes believes players are lazily opting for the most comfortable type of footwear rather than those with more grip, particularly in night games which can be slippery.

“I’ve absolutely had enough … I am sick of players slipping over, and it happens time, and time, and time again,” he said on Nine’s Sunday Footy Show.

“You could show 100 of these every week. Thursday night, it’s rained for a week in Adelaide and you’re playing at night. It’s across the board, it’s every week and it happens multiple times.

“So what has happened is, the players go, OK we can’t wear screw-in boots any more. This is a cop out. The molded soles every player wears – it’s not doing anything. That’s their preference, they want to wear them.

“What you can wear are these, the hybrid screw-in boots. There’s some rubber studs but there’s also the old screw-in versions. These are legal.

“Every player must get themselves a pair of these boots – you can’t find them, there’s very few players in the game who wear these types of boots. Everyone needs it because it’s costing teams and players when they lose their feet. The moldeds do nothing for you.

“The players love these (the molded ones) because it’s comfortable, but you can put up with a sore foot for a couple of hours if it stops you from slipping.”

MORE QUESTIONS FOR EAGLES WITH PICK 1 CALL

West Coast, and to a lesser extent North Melbourne, would’ve been watching closely as Harley Reid made a stellar start to his under-18 championships campaign.

The looming No.1 pick played his first game in 36 days after suffering a concussion last month, and kicked three goals in the opening nine minutes for Vic Country against South Australia.

Starting up forward, Reid then showed more flashes in the midfield during the final quarter, and remains the clear standout prospect in the 2023 draft pool.

With the Eagles anchored to the bottom of the ladder and effectively needing two more wins to pass the Kangaroos and avoid the wooden spoon, the talk continues to build around their decision with Pick 1.

The question is, should they select Victorian Reid and hope he becomes the type of superstar draftniks feel he can become, or trade out of the pick for multiple first-round selections to add bulk talent to their list?

Brisbane great Jonathan Brown believes the Eagles need to have another Chris Judd type on their hands if they’re going to stay at No.1.

“If you’re confident he’s a generational player, you take him. If you’ve got a Chris Judd there for the West Coast Eagles, you take him,” Brown said on Fox Footy.

“But if you’re not quite sure, I’d be willing to go down and have a couple of first-rounders and maybe a second-rounder as well.

“A team like West Coast obviously needs to get their talent levels up. One player is not going to fix that unless he’s a generational superstar.”