Melbourne Cup icon Jim Cassidy’s verdict on every runner and predicted first 4

Jim Cassidy was revered as a master in the saddle, a champion jockey who won 103 Group 1s including two Melbourne Cups – on the barnstorming Kiwi in 1983 and the great front-running Might And Power in 1998.

Foxsports.com.au is thrilled to bring you this runner-by-runner Melbourne Cup guide from the legendary jockey they call the Pumper.

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FORM GUIDE: Expert verdict on every runner and predicted top 4

ULTIMATE GUIDE: How much winner gets and the horses punters are backing

Flemington, Tuesday, November 5

Race 7, 3.00pm

1. VAUBAN (Barrier 11)

Approx odds: $7/$2.70

Trainer: Willie Mullins; Jockey: William Buick

Here he is back again, last year’s favourite. He didn’t really distinguish himself in 2023, running 14th after having a good run in transit. But you can be a bit forgiving of these English/Irish horses sometimes. It was a hot day, and he was noticeably sweating up before the race. He still looked a little bit woolly in the coat too, which wouldn’t have helped. He’s got a master trainer in Irishman Willie Mullins, and my mail is he’s tried a few things different this time. He’s had his coat clipped, and he’s had two fairly recent runs, whereas last year he hadn’t raced in three months. He’s got a good gate and a great international jockey in William Buick. With that long 900m run to the first bend, you can jump out from a middle gate like his and have a bit of a look around before deciding what position you want. From an outside gate, there’s a lot more pressure to get sorted out. Also, last year’s experience will have done the horse good. His recent form is strong, with a win over 3319m at York two runs back, so providing everything’s been good with his preparation this time, he’s a definite chance.

2. BUCKAROO (21)

$5.50/$2.30

T: Chris Waller; J: Joao Moreira

This bloke’s a classy animal who’s been great this preparation, and looks like he’s really settled in Australia after a couple of preps here and is producing his best. Sometimes it can take them a while. He almost beat Via Sistina when second to her in the Turnbull Stakes, then she won like Phar Lap in the Cox Plate – by eight lengths! He also then finished second in the Caulfield Cup, and was by far the best of the rest after Harry Coffey pinched it with a beautiful ride on the pace on the winner Duke De Sessa. The Caulfield Cup is still the best guide to the Melbourne Cup, and if Harry’s ride won it, then Buckaroo’s was probably the run of the race. The horse hasn’t been past 2400m, which is a bit of a worry, but neither had Might And Power when he and I went from winning the Caulfield Cup to taking the Melbourne Cup 17 days later. I’m not sure this bloke is as good as Might And Power, but he does look classy, and Chris Waller is winning just about everything these days. He has drawn a sticky gate, which makes things tricky, but there are few better jockeys in the world than the Brazilian master Joao Moreira. He’s run second in this race twice, including being beaten a head on Heartbreak City in 2016 from gate 23, so he knows his way around. Class will take a horse a long way, and I reckon this one’s a good chance.

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3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (24)

$34/$9

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Mark Zahra

Speaking of tricky gates, this guy’s drawn in the car park. Again, he has one of the best on board in Mark Zahra, who’s won the past two of these things. But gee 24 is hard. You’ve got to work out whether you’re going to burn petrol to go up ahead, and maybe having nothing left for the finish, or sit back and hope to work home. This horse has gone back in some of his races, including the Caulfield Cup. But in Melbourne Cups, the big field strings out so much that you can find yourself a good 50 to 100 metres or more off the leaders if you go to the tail. Still, this horse is a very tough stayer. I was really impressed with his Sydney Cup win over this trip in April, when he sat wide for the trip and still won by two lengths. The worry is, his recent form hasn’t matched that form back when he was fresh off the boat from England. So you wonder what’s happened in the meantime. His run in the Caulfield Cup wasn’t flash, finishing 10th and beaten 14 lengths. One thing you know is Ciaron Maher knows how to train them, as with when he won this race with Gold Trip two years ago. But considering the gate, I’m looking elsewhere.

4. WARP SPEED (3)

$26/$8

T: Noboru Takagi; J: Akira Sugawara

This Japanese stallion is a bit of a mystery bag. He’s got some great form in Japan over some very long trips, like 3600m, and the Japanese breed very tough stayers. But he looked pretty disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, when he was 13th and beaten more than 16 lengths. He did have gate 16 of 18 that day, so he settled at the back, and this time he has a perfect barrier and should get into a good spot, you’d hope in the front half of the field. That sets you up for a better attack in the straight. But since he’s a bit of an unknown quantity, you’d really have liked to have seen him do more at Caulfield. Can’t have him.

5. KOVALICA (17)

$21/$6

T:Chris Waller; J: Damian Lane

This is one of those horses you get sometimes who’s often threatening but finds it hard to win. He looked like he could be anything when he was a three-year-old, winning five out of six capped off by the Queensland Derby, over 2400m. So, everyone thought he was going to be a superstar, but he hasn’t won since, although the punters have kept backing him pretty often. He didn’t do much in the Cox Plate last start when he was sixth out of nine. Start before was OK when second at Rosehill over 1900m. Again, he’s got the Chris Waller touch, and Damian Lane is one of the best jockeys around. But there’s a few doubts about this bloke. You often get these horses who for some reason just find it hard to close the deal. Winning form is good form and, like I said, he doesn’t have it.

6. SHARP ’N’ SMART (15)

$71/$18

T: Graeme & Deborah Rogerson; J: Michael Dee

This is a classy gelding from the land of the stayers, my old homeland New Zealand. And he’s got an all-Kiwi team behind him in his trainers and jockey, and Graeme knows what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup, having won it with Efficient in 2007. However, it’s a bit hard to make a case for this guy, as the odds would suggest. His last run in the Moonee Valley Cup was a bit hot and cold, with his rider having to pull the whip well before the home turn. Sometimes you’ve got to get up ‘em a bit to wake them up. The horse then came on in the straight, but then died on his run a bit. That 2500m trip was the furthest he’s been, and this one’s 700m longer. Plus gate 15 is a bit sticky. I wish the Kiwis well, but I don’t think he’ll trouble them.

7. JUST FINE (13)

$34/$9

T: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott; J: Jye McNeil

Talk about hot and cold. This gelding looked good in leading all the way in The Bart Cummings but then put in a Barry Crocker in the Moonee Valley Cup, when he went to the front again and then stopped as if shot, finishing last of 10. Gai and Adrian like their horses to lead, so it’s likely he’ll do that again. Jye McNeil is a very good rider, and of course he won the Melbourne Cup in 2020 with a brilliant front-running ride on Twilight Payment. But gee it takes a tough horse to lead from go to whoa in the Melbourne Cup. I was lucky enough to do it on Might And Power, but he was one of the all time greats, and he only just fell in. I don’t think Just Fine is another Might And Power.

8. LAND LEGEND (18)

$15/$4.80

T: Chris Waller; J: Zac Purton

This is a decent horse, again trained by the master, and he has one of the best on board in Zac Purton, the Hong Kong champion who could win on a broomstick. This is a French-bred stayer and he looks pretty tough. I liked his run when he won The Metropolitan two starts back over 2400m, and he backed it up well with a strong effort in the Caulfield Cup, when he was up on the pace and came third. He did finish more than six lengths off the winner though, but he could be one of these European types who just drops into a great rhythm under you and bowls along and can keep going all day. Trouble is, again, he’s got a very wide gate in 18, and he’s generally liked to be up on the pace. So Zac probably goes forward and hopes he can get somewhere near the fence. But he’s a great rider so I wouldn’t put it past him. I’d give this bloke an each-way chance.

9. ABSURDE (7)

$10/$3.50

T: Willie Mullins; J: Kerrin McEvoy

Willie Mullins has come back with the same two horses he had in last year’s Cup, and this is the one who was most impressive then, even though he was less fancied than Vauban. He had to do it tough in the run, when he was caught a bit deep and came wide around the home turn, but he stuck on well to be just nutted out of sixth place. He’s got a great barrier, and Kerrin McEvoy has won three Melbourne Cups, so he certainly knows what he’s doing. He’s 43 now, Kerrin, and is still at the top of his game, showing the benefits of experience, and he’ll make the light weight (52.5kgs) very comfortably, which is important for keeping your wits about you on the big day. The horse comes here with great form, winning his last start over 2916m at Chester – and looking very good in the process. He also won a 3419m hurdle race three starts back, which is something Mullins likes to get his horses to do. I think this is a top chance.

10. ATHABASCAN (2)

$51/$14

T: John O’Shea and Tom Charlton; J: Zac Lloyd

One thing I love about this horse – he’s got barrier two! That’s where both my winners came from, with Kiwi coming from the back and Might And Power leading all the way. This horse won over 2600m at Randwick last start in the St Leger, running up on the pace, and from gate two should get a nice forward role easily, under a smart young rider in Zac Lloyd, who looks to be going places. The horse also ran second in the Sydney Cup over 3200m in April, so should be able to run out the trip, even though the Melbourne Cup is a tougher and classier affair. He’s French-bred, by a stallion in Almanzor who spends half his time standing as a sire in New Zealand, and has been having a lot of success lately. So, I probably wouldn’t have him in my top six, mostly because of the class factor, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of backing him.

11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (6)

$101/$24

T: John Symons and Shiela Laxon; J: Robbie Dolan

Not a lot you can say about this bloke, except maybe that she’s co-trained by another Kiwi in Sheila Laxon, who won the Cups double with Ethereal in 2001. Unfortunately this horse looked good earlier on when he won four on the trot as a three-year-old, but he hasn’t trained on. Sometimes that can happen. Sometimes a horse loses interest, or sometimes they’re just more developed as a young horse and the others take a while to hit their peak – a bit like a young teenage footballer who’s too skinny at 14 but goes great at 18. Maybe this bloke was like the star 14-year-old and then everyone else grew up. Not for me.

12. OKITA SOUSHI (10)

$23/$7

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Jamie Kah

I really liked this bloke’s win in the Moonee Valley Cup last start, when he put the race to bed early in the home straight, showing a good burst of acceleration near the end of the 2500m. You need that turn of foot to win a Melbourne Cup, plus a lot of stamina of course. His run in the Melbourne Cup last year was solid, coming home from the rear after having to drop back from gate 20. He finished 11th but was in the first division after the race basically split into two halves, and looked to be seeing out the trip. He’s got a much better barrier this year, so should get a more prominent spot in the run. He was also fresh off the boat from Europe last year but has been here a year now, giving him time to acclimatise and adapt to our way of racing. The Europeans can take a preparation or two to get used to things out here, whether it’s the style of racing, the heat, or even things like the feed and water. Once again, Ciaron Maher is a master trainer, and Jamie Kah’s a wonderful jockey who’s helped revolutionise our sport. It’s great to see so many female riders having success, and there’s four of them in the Cup this year! I love that about our sport – it’s pretty much the only one where men and women compete on an equal footing. I’d give this horse a solid top six chance, maybe even top three.

13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (12)

$8/$3

T: Brian Ellison; J: Craig Williams

This boy looks the goods, one of these Europeans who’ll stay all day. His win in the Geelong Cup was one of those “wow” moments. He sat wide throughout, then Craig Williams went wider from the 600m on, and he still just bolted away from what was a pretty good field to win by more than two lengths. Interpretation was second, and I rate that horse, and he looked far superior to him. Craig has won this race before, on Vow And Declare in 2019, so he knows what it takes. Plus he’s had a ride on this horse now, and that’s really important. A jockey gets to know a horse a bit, gets a feel for how they travel, gets to know what they like or don’t like. Winning can sometimes be all about relationships between horse and rider. Aside from that, this bloke won a decent race in England over 3319m three starts before Geelong, then ran second in the important Ebor Handicap at York over 2816m. Both times they were 20-horse fields. And that’s important with a view to the big 24-horse Melbourne Cup. A lot of the time, Europeans come here having beaten five and six horse fields, so it’s hard to be confident about how they’ll go in a big field at Flemington. Craig has a great middle gate to jump from, so I’ve got no worries at all about this horse. There’s always a chance the visitors could get worked up in the big Cup day atmosphere, but he’s a seven-year-old gelding – not a three-year-old colt – so he should be right. Top chance.

14. ZARDOZI (4)

$17/$5

T: James Cummings; J: Andrea Atzeni

Here’s a mare trained by Godolphin’s James Cummings, who used to work with his grandfather, the great Bart Cummings, who won a record 12 Melbourne Cups. He will have picked up a lot of intel from the great man, about what it takes to win this race. One of Bart’s things was to make sure your horse ran on the Saturday before the Cup. Zardozi raced on Saturday in the Empire Rose Stakes over 1600m, and turned in a great Cup trial in flying home to get fifth. This race is double that distance of course, but I know James is a great young trainer, and that might have been just the top-up run she needed. She’s won up to 2500m, and ran pretty well in coming fourth in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m. It can be a big ask to put a four-year-old mare into a Melbourne Cup though. The last one to win it was pretty special – Makybe Diva – when she won the first of her three, in 2003. And in fact, only one mare has won this race since her, and that was another special one in Verry Elleegant in 2001, as a six-year-old. So, I’d say this mare has a lot in front of her. But she has a great trainer and an excellent jockey – Hong Kong based Italian Andrea Atzeni – to give her her best possible chance, especially from an inside gate. I think she’s a decent top six chance.

15. SEA KING (1)

$9/$3.30

T: Harry Eustace; J: Hollie Doyle

Another British raider who donkey-licked them in the Bendigo Cup last Wednesday. His jockey made a bold move in letting the horse take off at the 900m mark and go wide, but it didn’t matter. The horse just went around them and powered away. It’s a great feeling underneath you when a horse just wants to charge into the race like that, and this boy’s obviously got a huge set of lungs and big heart to keep going. He won over 2639m in the UK, and was a solid sixth in the Ebor at York over 2816m, coming from the back like 3200m wouldn’t worry him. He’s got the inside marble, and from what I hear an outstanding rider in Hollie Doyle, plus he drops 4kg from his last run. The only slight doubt is it’s a fairly quick back-up from Bendigo, and not many Bendigo Cup winners have then won the Melbourne Cups double, but some have gone pretty well, like Interpretation running sixth at Flemington last year. This guy looks like one of these gun English stayers. He’s in with a tiny weight of 50.5kg, and I’d say he’s a big chance.

16. VALIANT KING (22)

$71/$18

T: Chris Waller; J: Craig Newitt

Here’s another from the Waller stable, but probably the worst of his five. He did make a little ground when he was ninth in the Caulfield Cup last start, but was beaten a long way. He hasn’t won past 2011m, back in Ireland before being imported out here, and from gate 22 I can’t see him threatening.

17. FANCY MAN (19)

$81/$20

T: Annabel Neasham and Rob Archibald; J: Ron Stewart

I was thinking this could have been one the better sneaky longshots, but then he went and drew gate 19. He turned in a good run when sixth in the Caulfield Cup, and it was one of those types of runs you like to see in that lead up race – just plodding along and working home quietly looking like he’d need a longer race. His trainers know what they’re doing, and Ronnie Stewart is a lightweight rider who’s been around the block and won’t let the occasion get to him. Like I say, he will have to pull some strings from the wide gate, but at least he’s only got 50kg on his back, and that makes a huge difference. It’s a lot easier as a jockey to manoeuvre a horse around with nothing on their backs than say 59kg. And one of the best Cup rides of modern times was Corey Brown on Shocking in 2009. He had barrier 21, and in the end Corey had to make do with being the only rider who was three-wide, and for the entire trip! But with only 51kg, the horse could do it, and he won by three-quarters of a length. Is this horse as good as Shocking, who went on to win another G1? Probably not. Could he sneak a place at big odds? Possibly, yes.

18. INTERPRETATION (14)

$15/$4.80

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Teo Nugent

I’ve mentioned this horse a couple of times already, after his good second in the Geelong Cup last start and his win in the Bendigo Cup last year which was followed by his sixth in the Melbourne Cup. He’s an Irish import by the all-time great sire Galileo, and he’s a really progressive stayer who’s lightly-raced for a seven-year-old, with four wins from 23 starts. If you follow his recent progress, it looks like Ciaron has brought him along nicely for this race. He’s had six runs this prep starting in June, all of them nicely spaced. He came home well for sixth in The Bart Cummings over 2520m, before his last start second at Geelong over 2400m. He came home well from the back both times, which is a great feeling for a jockey when you’re about to step up to 3200m. And he just looks like a classy animal, with a great action. One of the main measures, also, is that he came a super sixth in this race last year, so you know he’ll get the trip. His barrier isn’t single figures but it’s not too bad. Plenty of winners have come from there. And he’s got a promising young lightweight rider on him in Teo Nugent, who’s been here before. I’d give this bloke a strong each-way chance.

19. MANZOICE (8)

$51/$14

T: Chris Waller; J: Tyler Schiller

There’s not much to recommend this one, except he’s trained by Chris Waller, but he’s definitely in his B-team. He won the VRC Derby two years ago, but hasn’t won since, and he flopped last start in the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m, when he was on the pace but got the stitch in the straight, finishing seventh. Prefer others.

20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (16)

$101/$24

T: Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young; J: Karis Teetan

Has been placed over 3200m in the Brisbane Cup, and ran sixth in the Sydney Cup over the trip, both this year. But they’re a fair way below this race, class-wise. Also he hasn’t raced since October 5 when he ran second-last The Bart Cummings over 2520m. You’ve got to wonder why he hasn’t raced since then, and often it’s because they’ve had some sort of setback or other. Karis Teetan is one of the best lightweight riders in Hong Kong, but will have to navigate from barrier 16. Looking elsewhere.

21. POSITIVITY (20)

$101/$24

T: Andrew Forsman; J: Winona Costin

Kiwi mare with a very good trainer in Andrew Forsman who looked good earlier on, running second in the Group 1 NZ Oaks over 2400m in March. Not sure she’s trained on though. She ran OK when seventh in The Bart Cummings over 2520m, just plugging away like she needed longer. But then looked pretty plain when eighth in the Moonee Valley Cup. Shocking gate as well, so I can’t see her among the chances.

22. SAINT GEORGE (9)

$34/$9

T: Ciaron Maher; J: Tyler Schiller

Probably isn’t Ciaron’s best hope but isn’t the worst horse in the race either, and has a light weight and good barrier. He ran a good race at Royal Ascot last year, when second over 2816m in a 14-horse field of three-year-olds. Didn’t look like much when he was a fading ninth in The Bart Cummings, but then turned in a fair run when fifth in the Moonee Valley Cup. Might not have been suited by Moonee Valley. It’s a tight and tricky little circuit, and this bloke looks the type who’ll like stretching out at Flemington. Has had four runs this preparation and again I’d say Ciaron has brought him along nicely. Just a slight class doubt, but I’d give him a place chance at odds.

23. THE MAP (23)

$41/$11

T: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray (Murray Bridge); J: Rachel King

There’ll be a big cheer go up from a lot of people if this one wins, as she’s a real born and bred Aussie, trained at Murray Bridge in South Australia. She’s a mare, but at least she’s a tough six-year-old mare, and has been around the block, with nine wins from 32 starts. She’s well proven over the distance, having been second in the Adelaide Cup over it, and I liked her run in the Geelong Cup at her last start, when she was sixth after being unlucky in the straight. That’s a jockey’s worst nightmare, when you’ve got a horse full of running but you’re just staring at backsides in front of you. She’s got a very wide gate and so will likely go back again, but at least in this 3200m marathon it’s a long straight and gaps usually appear as horses get tired – as I found in threading my way through on the mighty Kiwi when I was an apprentice. I think this is a really honest mare who doesn’t know how to run a bad race, and I think she’s a decent place chance at good odds.

24. TRUST IN YOU (5)

$101/$24

T: Bruce Wallace and Grant Cooksley; J: Mark Du Plessis

Another from my old homeland, so I wish them well, but not sure he’s going to threaten here. Wasn’t far off them over this trip in the Auckland Cup when sixth, and had a decent go two runs back when he made up some ground for fourth in Group 1 The Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick. Does have a good gate and a good and strong lightweight rider on him, but his form doesn’t really stack up against a lot of these.

TIPS: 1. Sea King; 2. Interpretation; 3. Onesmoothoperator; 4. Buckaroo.