‘There’s no hiding’: How Supercars finals shake-up would rock this year’s championship showdown

This weekend’s Adelaide 500 is the end of the Supercars as we know it — if you believe the doomsayers.

Will Brown will be the last driver in the championship’s history to head into the final round with as hefty a lead as his 180-point advantage over teammate Broc Feeney, the only other driver still mathematically in contention for the title.

From next year the sport will institute a NASCAR-style finals system designed to guarantee a four-car championship shootout at the final race.

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Such a change, arguably the biggest in the sport’s history and close to unique in the motorsport world, was always going to be controversial.

The only way to find out whether the criticisms hold water is to see the finals format in action.

Fox Sports has simulated the 2024 season according to next year’s rules to come up with the four drivers who would start the Adelaide Grand Final in championship contention.

To do so, however, we need to make some important modifications to this year’s calendar to fit into next year’s format.

The 2025 schedule will feature 13 rounds thanks to Ipswich’s reintroduction in the eight-round Sprint Cup season.

The Bend will displace Sandown as an endurance event for the two-round Enduro Cup.

The Sandown 500 will remain on the calendar as the middle event of a three-round ‘finals’ series, albeit now running to a regular two-race format.

To make up for the discrepancy in rounds and to ensure we have three events after the Bathurst 1000, we’ll copy and paste the results of the Tasmania SuperSprint, the race immediately before this year’s endurance rounds, and put them in what will be Sandown’s place next year.

To avoid confusion, we’ll call it Sandown Plains.

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SPRINT CUP

Sydney 500, Melbourne SuperSprint, Taupō Super400, Tasmania Super440, Perth Super440, Darwin Triple Crown, Townsville 500 and Ipswich Super440

Triple Eight controls the opening two weekends of the sprint campaign, with Will Brown taking back-to-back round victories ahead of teammate Broc Feeney.

What looks set to be single-team domination, however, quickly unravels.

On a wet and wild weekend and against the odds, Anton de Pasquale scores a crucial round victory in New Zealand, with Andre Heimgartner in second, briefly putting the Brad Jones Racing star into the top 10.

Slow starts by Chaz Mostert and Cam Waters put both on the back foot, but Walkinshaw Andretti United fires back with an overall victory in Perth ahead of his Tickford rival.

Both have poor rounds behind dominant winner Broc Feeney in Darwin, but Mostert and Waters split the last three rounds of the sprint season between then 2-3 to earn themselves a place in the top 10.

No-one has enough for Brown, however, whose consistency wins him the Sprint Cup and automatic entry into the finals.

Top 10 after the Sprint Cup

1. Will Brown: 1980 points

2. Chaz Mostert: 1899 points

3. Broc Feeney: 1782 points

4. Cameron Waters: 1630 points

5. Matthew Payne: 1419 points

6. Nick Percat: 1368 points

7. Will Davison: 1326 points

8. Thomas Randle: 1267 points

9. James Golding: 1256 points

10. Anton de Pasquale: 1213 points

(11. Jack Le Brocq: 1174 points)

ENDURO CUP

The Bend 500 and Bathurst 1000

The intrigue of the Enduro Cup now becomes twofold. The top three drivers have a big enough points buffer to ensure a spot in the finals. Cam Waters and Matt Payne are also just about safe. For them this part of the season is all about winning, in particular the Bathurst 1000.

An interesting quirk to this finals system is that the points leader will be more incentivised to take bigger risks at Bathurst knowing a mistake probably won’t take them out of contention for the finals.

Whereas today they might err on the side of caution to protect their points lead so close to the end of the season, from 2025 they can attack more freely knowing they only need to finish inside the top 10 on the table by the end of the round.

Brown storms to victory with co-driver Scott Pye at the Bend and finishes Bathurst third, moving him into the finals in top spot in our thought experiment, beating Feeney by six points.

He already has automatic entry to the finals by winning the Sprint Cup, meaning the same advantage for winning the Enduro Cup goes unused.

With the 10-round regular season complete, the bottom 14 drivers on the championship table are eliminated.

How does it compare to the standings after the Sprint Cup?

Interestingly, every driver in the top 10 kept their spot in only a slightly shuffled order.

Andre Heimgartner came within 31 points of taking De Pasquale’s place after the first endurance race, but 16th in Bathurst behind the DJR star’s seventh ensured no change among the finals qualifiers.

The gap between the top 10 and the rest stood at 86 points on the eve of the finals.

Top 10 after the Enduro Cup

1. Will Brown: 2538 points

2. Broc Feeney: 2334 points

3. Chaz Mostert: 2313 points

4. Cameron Waters: 2074 points

5. James Golding: 1718 points

6. Matthew Payne: 1659 points

7. Nick Percat: 1548 points

8. Thomas Randle: 1543 points

9. Anton de Pasquale: 1531 points

10. Will Davison: 1530 points

(11. Jack Le Brocq: 1444 points)

THE FINALS

Gold Coast 500, Sandown Plains 500, Adelaide Grand Final

The top 10 drivers arrive on the Gold Coast with their points reset — though they won’t be exactly even heading into the first race.

All 10 drivers will start with a baseline 3000 points.

The winner of the Sprint Cup and Endurance Cup will get a bonus 25 points each for the first round. Brown won both, so he gets a 50-point bump.

Every driver will then receive a bonus score based on where they finished the regular season, giving us the following order.

Leaderboard for the Gold Coast 500

1. Will Brown: 3200 points

2. Broc Feeney: 3120 points

3. Chaz Mostert: 3096 points

4. Cameron Waters: 3078 points

5. James Golding: 3066 points

6. Matthew Payne: 3057 points

7. Nick Percat: 3048 points

8. Thomas Randle: 3039 points

9. Anton de Pasquale: 3030 points

10. Will Davison: 3021 points

Brown therefore starts the finals with a handy but hardly insurmountable 80-point lead. The total spread is 179 points.

The bottom three drivers after the weekend will be eliminated from contention, putting Tom Randle, De Pasquale and Will Davison on the bubble.

Any driver who wins a race — assuming they’re in finals contention — will automatically progress to the next round.

We immediately get a sense of the added jeopardy when Brown crashes out of qualifying, leaving him 11th on the grid. A recovery to seventh preserves his lead, however.

Cam Waters claims a dominant victory, ensuring he’ll make it to ‘Sandown Plains’.

It’s bad news for James Golding and the DJR teammates, however, who all return low scores, leaving them in the bottom three heading into the final day of the event after Nick Percat rises from 19th on the grid to 12th to sneak into the top seven.

Sunday changes all that, however, with a first-lap crash ending De Pasquale’s race and title hopes on the spot. Percat and Davison are also caught up in the carnage, the former picking up damage and the latter being held up. Neither can score heavily, and both are eliminated. Golding sneaks into the seven.

Leaderboard for the Sandown Plains 500

1. Will Brown: 4150 points

2. Broc Feeney: 4120 points

3. Cameron Waters: 4096 points

4. Thomas Randle: 4078 points

5. Matthew Payne: 4066 points

6. Chaz Mostert: 4057 points

7. James Golding: 4048 points

The points are reset, this time without the Sprint Cup and Enduro Cup bonuses. Brown takes just a 30-point advantage into the penultimate round. Only 102 points will separate first from seventh.

There are some key changes compared to this year’s title table after 11 rounds.

Mostert has been far more harshly punished for the mistakes of the Gold Coast that saw him finish 10th and 11th. He’s now only just holding on inside the top seven rather than third, as he is today.

Waters and Randle, however, moved themselves into striking distance of top spot thanks to their Gold Coast Saturday domination.

At this point next year the sport will be heading to the two-race Sandown 500. Remember: to simulate that weekend, we’re using the results of the Tasmania SuperSprint — ‘Sandown Plains’ — the race immediately before the endurance rounds this year.

It delivers us an excess of jeopardy.

Erstwhile title leader Brown has a qualifying shocker thanks to red flags, leaving him 15th on the grid and scrambling to recover to seventh. Teammate Feeney takes top spot after finishing third behind Mostert, who edges back into the top four ahead of Randle.

Sunday is a heart-stopper.

Randle is on a charge through the field attempting to catch teammate Waters. A mistake drops him to fourth behind Feeney, but he still looks like he has the pace for at least second when he tags the Triple Eight car at the hairpin and hits him again as they both attempt to rejoin.

Feeney finishes an excruciating 15th. Randle, penalised, is classified 18th.

It completely flips the top four. Brown returns to top spot ahead of Waters and Mostert.

Feeney just clings on in fourth.

Randle, Golding and Payne are eliminated.

WHAT HAS THE FINALS SYSTEM CHANGED?

After two dramatic rounds, Brown would still lead heading into Adelaide but with his margin much reduced from the 180 points he enjoys today.

Leaderboard for the Adelaide Grand Final

1. Will Brown: 5050 points

2. Cameron Waters: 5030 points

3. Chaz Mostert: 5015 points

4. Broc Feeney: 5000 points

The finals system has had a few effects on the title battle.

The first is obviously the guarantee of having four drivers in close championship contention at the end of the year. Even Feeney, 50 points adrift, has a realistic chance of winning the championship.

But it’s also worked to benefit drivers in good form at the end of the season.

In 2024 Waters is the highest scoring driver on the grid over the last six rounds dating back to his Saturday victory in Townsville, but his slow start to the season, featuring just two podiums beforehand, meant he was never likely to make it into the championship mix.

Under the format, however, a slow start is forgiven if the driver-team combination can come good late. That will change the rhythm of the season, with early results simply less important.

Based on this single experiment, it’s also hard to argue that the finals system completely randomises the outcome in the way critics have probably feared.

While the odds of an upset are still much higher, the sliding scale of bonus points based on championship position appear to be just enough to give season-long consistency due recognition.

Brown only briefly loses top spot in our hypothetical after qualifying 15th on the penultimate Saturday, for example, but still recovered to head into Adelaide atop the standings with the best chance of sealing the deal.

What it does clearly prevent, however, is any driver cruising to the finish.

Brown could afford to be circumspect after his qualifying crash on the Gold Coast, for example, because he had a points buffer. Under this system he would be motivated to take more risks.

And this weekend at the Adelaide 500 he needs only a 14th and a 15th over the two races to secure the title. That wouldn’t cut it next year.

“At the moment you can have a good year for 85 per cent, 90 per cent of the way, then have a couple of bad races and probably still become the champion,” Mostert said.

“Here there’s no hiding.”

The new format will never satisfy everyone, and motorsport purists might never be won over by the American-style novelty of it.

But based on our experiment, if the finals format were used today, Brown would still be the championship favourite, but he’d be racing the season’s best four performers in an all-or-nothing three-race final weekend.

That hardly sounds like a lottery proposition some would have feared for the 64-year-old Australian Touring Car Championship.

Love it or hate it, you can’t deny the drama.