Sifting through the rubble of Red Bull’s ruined Australian Grand Prix, a throwaway comment from team boss Christian Horner still lingers.
“We’ve had a very fast, unemployed driver win today,” he noted.
The absurdity of the situation won’t be lost on anyone, and yet, we shouldn’t be surprised. This is F1, which is no stranger to illogical realities.
We’re now grappling with another as the dust settles on the Australian Grand Prix, where Ferrari castaway Carlos Sainz coldly ended Max Verstappen’s bid for a 10th-consecutive race win.
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Verstappen retired early, but not before Sainz had already passed him on-track and showed genuine, race-winning speed.
Sainz, fresh from two major blows in 2024 – the loss of his appendix and his Ferrari seat for next year – was in a league the Red Bulls couldn’t touch. Nor could his more-acclaimed teammate Charles Leclerc.
Sainz remains the only driver not in a Red Bull to win an F1 race in the past 16 months – and he’s now done that twice.
His teammate Leclerc hasn’t won a race since July 2022.
Lewis Hamilton, who will replace him at Ferrari in 2025, not since December 2021.
If the win alone isn’t enough to make you stand up and take notice, then maybe the nature of it, and the exceptional circumstances surrounding the build-up, are.
From being hit with a career crisis after losing his spot at Ferrari, to missing the Saudi Grand Prix due to his appendicitis, the recovery from which meant he still wasn’t 100 per cent fit in Melbourne.
No wonder that in victory, Sainz was philosophical.
“Life sometimes is crazy,” he said.
“What happened at the beginning of year, then the podium in Bahrain, then the appendix, the comeback, the win… it’s a rollercoaster but I loved it and I’m extremely happy.”
The ‘rollercoaster’ sentiment is surely one Hamilton can appreciate on Monday, even if he’s at the bottom of the run, not the top.
Sunday’s race saw the Briton’s season – and indeed his entire Mercedes stay – reach a shocking new low with an engine failure out of nowhere.
The sorry end was the final blow in what was already a disastrous weekend for Hamilton. The Mercedes superstar had lost all confidence in his W15 during Friday practice – he was P18 in FP2 – and failed to reach Q3 on Saturday.
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This, off the back of a poor middle-eastern swing where he came seventh in Bahrain and ninth in Saudi Arabia. Teammate George Russell has been quicker at all three races, finishing fifth and sixth, while he was in another fight for sixth in Australia before a crash at the death.
The only high point of Hamilton’s year came off the track when he penned a new deal with Ferrari, thus finally confirming a fairy tale move that had been rumoured for several years.
When he arrives at Maranello, it might be after the worst season the seven-time world champion has ever endured.
That is the damning trajectory, at least, with Mercedes struggling for pace and – most worryingly – no closer to knowing why.
“We don’t understand some of the behaviours of the car,” team boss Toto Wolff told reporters after the race. “What we see in the (wind) tunnel doesn’t correlate to what we see out on the track.
“There were times in the race where we massively lacked pace and then there were times when we were doing okay.
“On one side, I want to punch myself on the nose. But on the other side you can see that if you get things right you can turn it around. So you have to believe. But it is a very, very tough time.”
Apart from Wolff, the man feeling that pain most keenly is Hamilton, whose fresh start in red is still the better part of a year away.
Hamilton was blunt in his post-race assessment, telling the media: “This is the worst start to a season I’ve ever had.”
Asked if it is worse than his past two winless seasons, he said: “Oh, yeah, for sure. And it’s worse than 2009 I think.”
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He added: “Surprisingly, I feel pretty good. I’m trying to keep things in perspective, you know, this could be so much worse.”
That is true when you have a multi-generational, mega fortune waiting for you (reports vary dramatically on how much Hamilton will make at Ferrari, but a ballpark figure of A$150m-a-year has been widely rumoured).
And yet, it’s 29-year-old Sainz who will become a free agent at the end of the season.
That surely won’t be the case for long based on his soaring stocks, and the vacancies at Mercedes and Red Bull for 2025.
Meanwhile, you have to wonder what conversations will be had in the hallways of Marenello over the coming weeks after Sainz’s Melbourne marvel, and Hamilton’s despair.
Next season, Hamilton will arrive, potentially after 10 months of torture in a curiously slow Mercedes.
The elephant in the room now is that Hamilton could swiftly become disillusioned – 21 more races is no small figure when you’re lacking speed and can do little about it.
While it takes bravery to rule out a resurgence from Hamilton and Mercedes, the likelihood of him ending his race-win drought in 2023 is looking slimmer by the race.
And regardless of how many times he reiterates his commitment to Mercedes for 2024, there will be a mental toll of such long-standing disappointment.
Ferrari will desperately hope such a scenario doesn’t blunt the powers of Hamilton, who is already a risky buy given his price, form, and the fact he turns 40 in January.
The worry will be two-fold for Ferrari. Not only will it hope Hamilton doesn’t arrive as damaged goods but, more immediately, it will fear Sainz making them look silly to prefer him.
This is a delicate tight rope as Ferrari’s revival has ever-so-slightly opened the door to a surprise challenge of Red Bull in the constructors’ championship.
It will need Sainz to do well, but to not be left with egg on its face, Ferrari needs Leclerc to do better.
He hasn’t thus far. For all his speed, particularly over one lap, he has too often made mistakes from good positions over race weekends, while in Melbourne he was outgunned by Sainz in all departments.
Sainz’s success, while a welcome headache for Ferrari and its PR department, is a headache nonetheless.
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