The surprise victory by Rob Jetten’s D66 in the Dutch parliamentary election has been viewed as a rejection of the far right. Yet as Stijn van Kessel and Andrej Zaslove explain, far-right policies remain firmly in the mainstream of Dutch politics and it is increasingly difficult for the (liberal) centre to hold.
The Dutch parliamentary elections on 29 October followed a turbulent year for the politics of the Netherlands. The country was governed between July 2024 and June 2025 by a coalition including the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), the conservative liberals (VVD), the newly formed centre-right New Social Contract (NSC) and the agrarian Farmers-Citizens Party (BBB).
Due in part to the toxicity of PVV leader Geert Wilders, the coalition was held together by a technocratic Prime Minister, Dick Schoof. It was marred by disagreements, chaotic policymaking and ineffectiveness. Less than a year after its installation, Wilders instigated a cabinet crisis centred on his core issue of migration – asking for tougher measures his coalition partners were never likely to agree to. This led to the collapse of the government and the 29 October election.
A return to the centre?
The election results came as a relief to many centrist voters. The PVV paid a price after most other parties ruled out entering a new coalition with Wilders. The PVV leader’s campaign was lacklustre, and he was often forced on the defensive, being attacked for his party’s ineffectiveness in office.
The PVV’s share of 26 out of the 150 seats in the Dutch lower house meant a decline of 11 seats compared with the previous election of November 2023. Surprisingly, the social liberal party D66 managed to narrowly beat the PVV in terms of its vote share. Rob Jetten, the young and charismatic D66 leader, will hold the initiative to form a new coalition government.
However, it remains imperative not to read these elections as a triumphant “return of the centre”. With a share of around 17 per cent of the vote (down from around a quarter in 2023) in a highly fragmented landscape, the PVV is still the joint largest party in parliament.
What is more, Wilders’ loss did not mean that far-right parties have become any less present in the Netherlands. The more extreme-right Forum for Democracy (FvD) went from three to seven seats. The more “moderate” JA21 also mopped up a considerable share of former PVV (and other) voters and increased its seat share from one to nine.
Altogether, the far-right bloc in parliament has remained roughly the same size (42 seats versus 41 in 2023). And this is leaving out the BBB (4 seats), which also entered far-right territory with its increasingly vocal anti-immigration positions and concerns about radical Islam.
To put this in perspective, the “left-wing” bloc won no more than 30 seats (depending on specific classification decisions), marking its continuing decline. The main centre-left Green-Labour party alliance (GL-PvdA) lost 5 seats and ended up with a mere 20 seats in parliament.
The far right has entered the mainstream
The trend of mainstream politicians “accommodating the far right” by moving closer to its positions is a key reason for the enduring relevance of far-right politics.
Through an optimistic “catch all” message, D66 has been successful – at least for now – in attracting voters from the left as well as the right. In its campaign, the party placed less emphasis on the more progressive parts of the D66 agenda (concerning issues such as climate change, LGBT rights and EU integration) and took a stricter position on immigration.
D66 was hardly the only party to do the latter (and other parties did it with greater gusto). Parties on the centre-right deliberately chose to make the issue of immigration important in their campaigns, and it was by default framed as a “problem” that needed a solution.
And few have challenged the widespread perception that the housing shortage – another salient issue – is connected in large part to refugees receiving priority over native citizens. While no single issue dominated the final stages of the campaign, the core message of the far right has entered the mainstream of Dutch politics.
Coalition formation
The coalition formation process ahead is likely to be daunting. There are two outcomes that seem most obvious at the time of writing. The first is a very broad coalition through the centre that, besides D66, includes parties that historically represented opposite sides of socio-cultural and socio-economic cleavages: VVD, GL-PvdA and the Christian Democrats (CDA).
These three parties, or their predecessors, used to dominate Dutch politics in the second half of the 20th century. However, their support has dwindled to the extent that even their combined seat share is not enough for a parliamentary majority.
The other, more unmistakably right-wing option would be a coalition consisting of D66, VVD, CDA and JA21. This would mean Jetten’s D66, instead of GL-PvdA, ends up on the progressive edge of the coalition – not an enviable position. Another obstacle is that this coalition is one seat short of a parliamentary (lower house) majority.
The future of the next government remains uncertain. A key challenge for the new government will be to restore stability and trust in Dutch politics. However, an open question is whether such a government will be able to chart its own course, moving away from the influence of the far right on issues such as asylum and labour migration, and in turn solving important issues such as housing and climate, to name just two.
A turning point for the Netherlands?
A Jetten government could mark an important turning point, including in terms of making the Netherlands a serious partner again on the international stage. However, it could also cement the influence the far right has had on Dutch politics over the last 15 years, but with a more “palatable” tone. This scenario is particularly likely if JA21 joins a right-wing coalition (an option preferred by the increasingly right-wing VVD).
On the other hand, if the GL-PvdA joins a centrist grand coalition instead, the new government may serve as a perfect punchbag for the far right, which will not hesitate to claim traditional centrist parties are “all the same”. The main risk is the cultivation of a dominant cleavage that divides technocratic liberal centrism, on the one hand, and the illiberal far right, on the other, as the two main options.
This is a concerning trend that is visible beyond the Dutch borders as well. In such a constellation, it is the far right that has the clearest ideological message that has proven appealing to a considerable share of citizens across the West and beyond.
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Jeroen Meuwsen Fotografie / Shutterstock.com
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