Two-man Brownlow thriller looms, but AFL’s stats gurus have a clear favourite… and shock dark horse

After back-to-back surprises on Brownlow night, normality should resume in 2024.

Well, we think so, anyway.

Patrick Cripps (2022) and Lachie Neale (2023) both went into their counts as contenders but not the favourites, with Cripps pipping Neale (thanks to having his suspension overturned at the AFL Appeals Board), and Neale pipping Nick Daicos (thanks to the Pie’s late-season injury).

Those three men are expected to top the leaderboard in 2024 in some order, with Cripps and Daicos heading into the night as the hot favourites.

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ULTIMATE GUIDE: Everything you need to know about the 2024 Brownlow

But it’s worth noting Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli had odds almost as short going into the 2023 count as Cripps and Daicos do now, and Neale became the most unlikely winner since Matt Priddis, so we really don’t know.

Throw in 2021, when Ollie Wines was the favourite but wasn’t exactly a sure thing, and this is the fourth straight count where there are no guarantees.

Does the Brownlow favourite usually win?

2024: Favourites Nick Daicos and Patrick Cripps ($2.50)

2023: Winner Lachie Neale ($13), favourites Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli ($2.75)

2022: Winner Patrick Cripps ($5.50), favourite Lachie Neale ($3)

2021: Winner and favourite Ollie Wines ($3.20)

2020: Winner and favourite Lachie Neale ($1.20)

2019: Winner Nat Fyfe ($7), favourite Patrick Dangerfield ($2.40)

2018: Winner and favourite Tom Mitchell ($1.50)

2017: Winner and favourite Dustin Martin ($1.05)

2016: Winner and favourite Patrick Dangerfield ($1.16)

2015: Winner and favourite Nat Fyfe ($2)

2014: Winner Matt Priddis ($17), favourite Joel Selwood ($2.50)

2013: Winner and favourite Gary Ablett ($1.90)

2012: Winner Jobe Watson* ($5.50), favourite Gary Ablett ($4)

2011: Winner Dane Swan ($11), favourite Chris Judd ($1.90)

2010: Winner Chris Judd ($17), favourite Dane Swan ($2.25)

So how do we pick a winner? We look to the numbers.

Foxfooty.com.au breaks down who the stats say will claim Charlie. All odds via Pointsbet and accurate as of 4pm Tuesday.

WHO IS CHAMPION DATA TIPPING TO WIN THE BROWNLOW?

Surprisingly, the AFL stats gurus Champion Data are tipping a runaway win on Brownlow Medal night, though the winner himself wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Champion Data Brownlow Tracker has Patrick Cripps claiming his second gong. Its system gives a projected vote total for each game based on player performance and is naturally pretty conservative – even the best games receive around 2.1 to 2.2 projected votes, to show how much variance can take place in the count.

It’s therefore telling that Cripps leads the way on 28.32 projected votes, well ahead of Nick Daicos (23.82 projected votes), with surprisingly Port Adelaide’s Jason Horne-Francis in third (23.06 projected votes).

Horne-Francis is a real roughie, sitting at $101 to win the award, but inarguably had a strong year averaging over 20 disposals and a goal, in a side that won a lot of games. He also polled reasonably well in 2023, with 16 votes in his second AFL campaign.

Champion Data is also low on Isaac Heeney, who is suspended and cannot win the award, but is widely expected to lead the count until at least midseason after a blistering start to the year.

They actually have Heeney finishing third at the Swans, behind Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, though the trio are extremely close together finishing within 1.5 votes of each other.

Champion Data’s Brownlow Tracker

1. Patrick Cripps (Carlton) – 28.32 votes

2. Nick Daicos (Collingwood) – 23.82

3. Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) – 23.06

4. Lachie Neale (Brisbane) – 22.58

5. Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) – 22.36

6. Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn) – 22.24

7. Errol Gulden (Sydney) – 20.62

8. Chad Warner (Sydney) – 19.93

9. Zach Merrett (Essendon) – 19.62

10. Isaac Heeney (Sydney) – 19.13

11. Caleb Serong (Fremantle) – 18.94

Champion Data has tipped six of the last nine Brownlow medallists though it missed on Lachie Neale last year, as almost everyone did.

Their numbers aren’t the only way to tip the award, though, with plenty of fan analysts having a crack.

THE MOST USEFUL STAT TO PREDICT THE BROWNLOW IS…

Coaches’ votes, according to data scientist @crow_data_sigh (aka Liam).

Between 2012 and 2023, they were the stat with the strongest link to Brownlow votes – which makes sense given they’re both given out by close observers who are trying to pick the best-on-ground.

Players who poll 10 coaches votes poll three Brownlow votes a little over two thirds of the time (67.12%), and poll at least one vote just over 90% of the time.

And in contrast, some 1.01% of players who polled a Brownlow vote did not receive a coaches vote in that game.

Coaches votes received – Chances of polling any Brownlow votes in that game

10 – 90.29%

9 – 81.69%

8 – 72.52%

7 – 61.43%

6 – 51.53%

5 – 42.10%

4 – 31.57%

3 – 22.84%

2 – 16.79%

1 – 11.10%

0 – 1.01%

In 2012 to 2023 home and away seasons, stats sourced from @crow_data_sigh

Keep in mind this isn’t exactly the same thing as saying “the winner of the coaches’ award wins the Brownlow”, because that has only happened once in the last six years, with Lachie Neale in 2020.

But it certainly doesn’t hurt to know that Nick Daicos (117 votes) won from Patrick Cripps (113) and Isaac Heeney (112), with Marcus Bontempelli (93) well down the order in sixth.

Daicos polled 10 votes five times this year (Rounds 8, 9, 10, 20 and 24), Cripps four times (Rounds 6, 11, 16 and 23), Bontempelli four times (Rounds 12, 14, 16 and 21) and Heeney twice (Rounds 22 and 23).

That points to the bigger story of Brownlow night – Daicos heads in with the most obvious three-vote games, while Cripps is relying more on picking up minor votes consistently.

SO WHO ARE THE COMPUTER MODELS TIPPING TO WIN IT?

We’ve looked at a few publicly-available models, which all run thousands of simulations based on previous award winners and the stats they starred in, and they’re all pretty unanimous about this being a two-horse race.

Stats Insider has Patrick Cripps as a 53.9% chance to win, with Nick Daicos at 48.7% – the percentages aren’t going to add up to 100, because of the chances of ties – with both men projected to poll just over 32 votes.

They have Lachie Neale at 4.4% to win, less than half of the chance they gave him in 2023 when he claimed Charlie, with Marcus Bontempelli at 2.7% and nobody else above 1%.

Some of the fan-run models, made by footy-watchers much smarter than us, are even stronger on Cripps and Daicos being the top two.

Wheelo Ratings projects Daicos at 34.4 votes, with a 63.5% chance of winning, with Cripps at 33 votes and a 41.4% chance of winning. Neale is a distant third at 2.4%.

This model gives plenty of juicy details including 95% confidence intervals (saying there’s a 95% chance the player’s vote total falls within a certain range); this helps explain why Neale, Bontempelli and the like are so unlikely to win.

The high-end projection in their range is 33 votes, which is where Daicos and Cripps should get to on average; so for Neale or Bontempelli to win, they would need to overachieve on what’s expected, while Daicos and/or Cripps likely underachieve.

The Wheelo Ratings guide has plenty of strong intel along these lines, including the probability of each player leading after a certain round; there is a clear trend where Isaac Heeney is very likely to lead until about Round 11, when Daicos should take over after a streak of potential three-vote games, before Cripps charges after Carlton’s Round 14 bye. Daicos then finishes the slightly stronger of the pair.

Chew The Stat has a similar view to the Wheelo model but flips the favourite, with Cripps given 34.4 expected votes (59% chance to win) ahead of Daicos on 33.3 expected votes (40% chance to win) – and nobody eligible for the medal within seven votes of them (Heeney is third on 27.1 expected votes).

You can get bogged down in the details of all of these models, but the key point is obvious – either Cripps or Daicos should win the Brownlow, maybe both together (for the first on-the-night tie since 2003), and it would be a massive surprise if neither man did.

Bigger even than Neale winning it last year. (Unless he wins it again.)

CLUB-BY-CLUB BROWNLOW FAVOURITES

via Champion Data’s Brownlow Tracker

Adelaide Crows: Jordan Dawson 11.58 votes (51.4% chance to lead club from Rory Laird, 10.39 votes)

Brisbane Lions: Lachie Neale 22.58 votes (76.9% chance to lead club from Dayne Zorko, 10.25 votes)

Carlton: Patrick Cripps 28.32 votes (84.4% chance to lead club from Sam Walsh, 15.20 votes)

Collingwood: Nick Daicos 23.82 votes (93.9% chance to lead club from Josh Daicos, 6.32 votes)

Essendon: Zach Merrett 19.62 votes (73.3% chance to lead club from Nic Martin, 12.24 votes)

Fremantle: Caleb Serong 18.94 votes (47.1% chance to lead club from Andrew Brayshaw, 17.99 votes)

Geelong: Jeremy Cameron 11.47 votes (42.6% chance to lead club from Max Holmes, 11.26 votes)

Gold Coast Suns: Noah Anderson 18.16 votes (67.4% chance to lead club from Matt Rowell, 12.82 votes)

GWS Giants: Lachie Whitfield 17.24 votes (43.6% chance to lead club from Tom Green, 16.19 votes)

Hawthorn: Jai Newcombe 22.24 votes (75.2% chance to lead club from James Sicily, 10.29 votes)

Melbourne: Max Gawn 13.42 votes (46.4% chance to lead club from Christian Petracca, 9.19 votes)

North Melbourne: Luke Davies-Uniacke 8.61 votes (43% chance to lead club from Harry Sheezel, 8.19 votes)

Port Adelaide: Jason Horne-Francis 23.06 votes (67.9% chance to lead club from Zak Butters, 16.32 votes)

Richmond: Liam Baker 4 votes (20.8% chance to lead club from Shai Bolton, 3.68 votes)

St Kilda: Jack Steele 14.37 votes (38.9% chance to lead club from Rowan Marshall, 14.23 votes)

Sydney Swans: Errol Gulden 20.62 votes (43.5% chance to lead club from Chad Warner, 19.93 votes)

West Coast Eagles: Elliot Yeo 7.42 votes (32.2% chance to lead club from Tim Kelly, 7.19 votes)

Western Bulldogs: Marcus Bontempelli 22.36 votes (70% chance to lead club from Adam Treloar, 17.02 votes)