Australian Open 2025: Day 8 Talking Points analysis, Alex de Minaur vs Alex Michelsen preview, Novak Djokovic Tony Jones comments, uneven draw favours Sinner over Djokovic, Alcaraz

After reaching the second week of the Australian Open for the fourth year in succession, Alex de Minaur had bruises on his quadriceps and a warning for his rivals.

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“The legs are back,” he declared.

“They went on a vacation. They were tired of running from side-to-side. It was tough last year with the injury and getting through it.

“It’s been a long six months but, geez, it feels good now that I have my legs back.”

The injury de Minaur is referring to relates to an issue with tissue attaching his hips to his abdominal muscles and is one that forced him out of a Wimbledon quarterfinal.

It also caused him to miss some significant tournaments and hindered him in a US Open in which he still managed to reach the quarterfinals when beaten by England’s Jack Draper.

A statistical breakdown of de Minaur’s tough third round win over Argentinian Francisco Cerundolo provides evidence that matches the naked eye.

The Aussie’s zip around the court was sensational, but he was also forced to work overtime to stay in points in a match where he was far from his best form. Even on Sunday when practising at Melbourne Park with Lleyton Hewitt, he looked a little off peak form.

De Minaur’s court speed and coverage has long been a strength but he has covered far more territory than his opponent on Monday in Alex Michelsen.

According to the AO, de Minaur has covered more than 8km in his three matches to date, with nine percent near the peak of his speed. Michelsen, the emerging American who has been impressive throughout the first week in Melbourne, has run 5,881 metres in contrast, with six percent of that at top speed.

But if Australian great Pat Rafter had his way, de Minaur would not have to rely on his endurance quite as much and could instead use those legs, which have sprinted 119 times according to the AO statistical boffins, to shorten points.

Rafter, who was on Sunday named as the vice-captain of Team World for the Laver Cup which will be held in San Francisco in September, said the “Demon” should zip forward with more frequency.

“I’ve spoken to Alex a couple of times and I think there are some things that I can do to help him with his transition to the net. He’s very good. He’s getting better and better all the time,” he said.

“Alex is exciting and if I can help him in any way, I might get that one week. It might flow on somewhere else. He’s a kid who really wants to learn, really wants to develop his game … and I’ll be there if I can help him in any way.”

As several astute tennis minds including former tough Frenchman Gilles Simon told foxsports.com.au last year, a significant factor in de Minaur’s transition from being a top 20 talent to a top 10 power was his ability to hold the baseline and dictate points more regularly.

This was due to a lift in his speed and precision on serve, but also to the bulk he has added to his frame. But Rafter believes this speed can be used to get forward more often.

When it comes to points won at the net through the first week of the Australian Open, the world No.8 sits in a tie for 85th from the 128 men who started in the main draw.

The Aussie has won 62 percent of his points when approaching the net (38 of 61) which indicates there is vast room for improvement there.

His percentage when following his serve to the net is perfect, but there is a caveat.

A 100 percent strike rate means little when he has followed his serve into the net just once from 278 points.

Of the men to reach the last 16, Italian Lorenzo Sonego strikes 79 percent of the time he approaches the net (79 from 105 points).

Novak Djokovic, Tommy Paul, Michelsen, Carlos Alcaraz, Gael Monfils, Jack Draper, Holger Rune, Jiri Lehecka and Alexander Zverev sit above 70 percent.

Rafter, meanwhile, likes the manner with which Michelsen plays, noting the American has defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov already in Melbourne this major.

But he believes de Minaur, who fell to the 20-year-old in Mexico last February but thrashed him at Roland Garros in May, is favoured to progress.

“I back him against Michelsen. I know Michelsen has a really big game. Can he keep it up together against someone like Alex?” Rafter said.

“I think it’s a bad matchup for Michelsen personally, but this guy has a really big game. If he can keep it together, he can cause a lot of destruction, I think, Michelsen. But I like Alex there.”

ANOTHER DJOKER CONTROVERSY MAY JUST HELP HIM

Novak Djokovic might not be the only player ticked off by veteran Channel Nine sports presenter Tony Jones should the Serbian maintain the rage in Melbourne.

A feud burning behind the scenes became public on Sunday night in Melbourne when the 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic refused to talk to the Nine Network in response to an inferno sparked by Jones, who made some flippant remarks about the superstar a couple of days ago.

It sparked a frenzy on social media…

THE UNBALANCED DRAW THAT COULD SWING TITLE

Meanwhile Djokovic’s decision to focus on breaking the all-time slams record is about to come back to bite him, as the true difficulty of his Australian Open draw comes into view.

The 24-time slam champion, who is trying to win a record-extending 11th title at Melbourne Park, played less tennis than many of his rivals did in 2024 while failing to win a slam. Instead they were split between Jannik Sinner (Australian, US) and Carlos Alcaraz (French, Wimbledon).

That saw Djokovic come into the 2025 Australian Open only seeded seventh, his lowest ranking in years, dating back to when he was returning from a career-threatening elbow injury.

And it means after downing Czech No.24 seed Jiri Lehecka in straight sets, he has earned an incredibly difficult quarter final against No.3 seed Alcaraz.

Alcaraz will be fresh for it too, having won the opening two sets against an exhausted Jack Draper before the Brit retired hurt on a hot day at Melbourne Park.

While Alcaraz vs Djokovic is a dream match-up for promoters, it’s something the Serb could have avoided if he had earned enough ranking points across the year to be placed in the top four, as he usually is.

The top four seeds cannot face each other until the semi-finals and Djokovic usually enjoys this benefit, having never been the lower seed in his 14 previous Australian Open quarter-finals.

Instead, for just the second time, Djokovic will face a player who had won a slam before they met. The other was 2009, when he retired hurt against Andy Roddick.

But given the American was years past his US Open title, it feels safe to say Djokovic’s 2025 quarter-final against Alcaraz will be his toughest one ever.

Djokovic is 11-3 in Australian Open quarter-finals all-time, only losing a pair of five-setters to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (2010) and Stan Wawrinka (2014).

Novak Djokovic’s Australian Open quarter-final opponents

2024: seeded 1st, def 12th seed Taylor Fritz in four sets

2023: seeded 4th, def 5th seed Andrey Rublev in straight sets

2021: seeded 1st, def 6th seed Alex Zverev in four sets

2020: seeded 2nd, def 32nd seed Milos Raonic in straight sets

2019: seeded 1st, def 8th seed Kei Nishikori when retiring hurt in second set

2016: seeded 1st, def 7th seed Kei Nishikori in straight sets

2015: seeded 1st, def 8th seed Milos Raonic in straight sets

2014: seeded 2nd, lost to 8th seed Stan Wawrinka in five sets

2013: seeded 1st, def 5th seed Tomas Berdych in four sets

2012: seeded 1st, def 5th seed David Ferrer in straight sets

2011: seeded 3rd, def 6th seed Tomas Berdych in straight sets

2010: seeded 3rd, lost to 10th seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in five sets

2009: seeded 3rd, lost to 7th seed Andy Roddick when retiring hurt in fourth set

2008: seeded 3rd, def 5th seed David Ferrer in straight sets

Of course, this also sucks for Carlos Alcaraz, who has to face a 24-time slam champion instead of literally any other player in men’s history who would have a weaker resume.

Compare Alcaraz’s task to that of Alex Zverev, the No.2 seed, who has a relatively standard path to the semi-finals. After beating No.14 Ugo Humbert in four sets on Sunday night, the German draws No.12 seed Tommy Paul – who’s in his third career grand slam quarter final.

The No.4 seed Taylor Fritz would’ve had an even easier path if he hadn’t lost. Having been upset by Gael Monfils in the third round, Fritz’s quarter is wide open, and now one of Monfils, Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Sonego or qualifier Learner Tien will make a shock run to the semi-finals.

The fact one of Monfils, Shelton, Sonego or Tien will be a semi-finalist, while one of Alcaraz or Djokovic won’t be, speaks to how naturally unfair tennis draws can be.

But the big winner out of the draw, as predicted by Foxsports.com.au on the day itself, was Jannik Sinner – with the defending champion facing few stumbling blocks on his path to the final.

Sinner faces Denmark’s No.13 seed Holger Rune in his fourth-round match on Monday, and then would face either No.8 seed Alex de Minaur or Alex Michelsen in a quarter-final. After that comes one of those surprise semi-finalists.

And look, far be it from us to talk down an Aussie. But de Minaur being the toughest possible opponent for Sinner between now and the Australian Open final is a massively fortunate draw.

In contrast Djokovic will probably need to beat the world No.3, world No.2 and world No.1 in order to win the Australian Open.

To an extent, if you’re the best player, you should end up holding up the trophy either way. And Sinner was the tournament favourite even before landing a favourable draw.

But that’s a simplistic view. Even a player like Sinner has some chance of being upset in any grand slam match; the incremental gain of drawing easier opponents really adds up.

There’s a reason why his betting odds to win the title got much shorter when the draw came out, after all.

RAFTER BACKS RETURN OF FAVOURED TACTIC

As a champion serve-and-volley exponent during the 1990s and early 2000s, Pat Rafter is well placed to comment on the importance of what is considered a fading tactic in tennis.

A week into the Australian Open and it is evident players are reluctant to follow their serves to the net with any frequency, with the decline continuing what is now a decades long trend.

The improvement in racquets and strings, combined with the slowing of courts and the prevalence of hard and clay courts, has contributed to the tactic being used sparingly.

Only two percent of the points played at this Australian Open in the men’s event have been serve-and-volley, with the man following the serve in successful on 69 percent of the time.

Frenchman Lucas Pouille, who was beaten in the opening round by Alexander Zverev, approached the net on 16 percent of his serves and won 76 percent of those points.

Of the top 10 ranked players in the category — four of them are Aussies in Tristan Schoolkate, Li Tu, Jordan Thompson and Alexei Popyrin — Ben Shelton is the only player left alive.

The percentages are even lower in the women’s ranks, headed by Australian Olivia Gadecki, who followed her serve into the net three times in 37 points in her opening round loss.

Only 21 women have used the tactic at all during the Australian Open.

But the tactic clearly has value when used as a surprise, with players including Rune, Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Michelsen and Djokovic holding a 100 percent record.

But Rafter, a dual-US Open champion and dual-Wimbledon runner-up whose kick serve was a stunning weapon, believes there is still room for the skill to be deployed more regularly.

“There are certainly opportunities,” he said.

“I’m sort of screaming at the TV (when) I see these guys create the point and the opening, and the one guy gets stretched, and you go, ‘Mate, come to the net, come in’.

“(But) they won’t come in. So that’s one of the things I’ll be pushing for. As soon as you see the opportunity, you have to take advantage of it.

“Then so many of them … are not used to coming in that much, so they’re not comfortable hitting the volley. They prefer to hit another big forehand. They do that very well as well, but there’s an easier way to finish the point off.”

Patrick McEnroe, an Australian Open semifinalist and the younger brother of serve-and-volley legend John McEnroe, is handing the Laver Cup vice-captaincy to Rafter, who will serve as Andre Agassi’s deputy in the three day exhibition event.

He, too, believes there is room for players to attack more regularly but doubts there will ever be a man who relies solely on the tactic when serving.

“I think there’s still a place for it,” he said.

“I mean, the conditions would have to change a little bit with the balls and the speed of the courts, for example, (for it to happen) consistently, but I don’t think you’re going to see the type of serve and volley that Mr. Rafter played or (Stefan) Edberg played in his prime.

“But I think volleying is just as important in today’s game. Maybe not the serve and volley, but serving, setting up the point, being able to (have) fun at the net. I think volleying skills are still very important. You see it at the highest level of the game. In many instances it’s actually crucial to who wins a match between these great players. (But) as far as serve and volley, I don’t see that coming back to the way that it used to be in the past.”

WHY PAT IS STILL OUT THERE WINNING

While we are on Rafter, a nod should be given to his quality with a different type of racquet, and kudos should also be offered to the Italian Sara Errani for some cross code excellence.

The former world No.1 has served as Tennis Australia’s Padel ambassador for the past couple of years and has put his renowned skill at the net to the fore here and abroad.

Padel is a hybrid of tennis and squash and is played inside clear perspex walls. Popular in Europe and South America for decades, it is growing in Australia, the US and England.

Former England captain Michael Vaughan, who is now a Fox Cricket expert analyst, owns centres in the UK and plays regularly when in Australia with greats including Adam Gilchrist and Mike Hussey.

Rafter, meanwhile, represented Australia in the Padel Senior World Championships in Spain last year and has picked up titles around the nation in the 35-and-over age group this year.

Both the Aussie favourite and former Swedish star Jonas Bjorkman, who was ranked No.1 in singles and No.4 in doubles, have played in tournaments at Game4Padel at the Docklands and also in an exhibition event at Melbourne Park over the past couple of weeks.

But the deeds of Errani, a former Roland Garros finalist who remains a superb doubles player, deserve recognition given what is a relatively unorthodox approach to a major.

After failing to qualify for the ladies singles at the AO, Errani swapped her tennis racquets for her padel racquets and headed down to the Docklands to play the Melbourne Open with Tathiana Garbin, who reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2009.

Once that was complete, she was back at Melbourne Park for the AO doubles and partnered Jasmine Paolini to a tight loss against Russians Mirra Andreeva and Diana Schnaider on Sunday.

Given his Spanish background, de Minaur is among the tennis players to be spotted at the Docklands venue, while Andy and Jamie Murray both play and are invested in the sport.

Former Australian Open doubles champion Jason Kubler, who is once again on the comeback trail, regularly features in Padel tournaments on the Gold Coast when home.