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‘1 in 10,000 chance’: Dees’ unthinkable AFL nightmare laid bare… and ‘sin’ that caused it

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Melbourne’s devastating “one-in-10,000” loss to St Kilda has come under fresh scrutiny, as the AFL world continues to wrap its head around the inexplicable finish on Sunday evening

After leading the Saints by 46 points at three-quarter time, the Demons went on to concede the greatest final-quarter comeback in V/AFL history, with St Kilda booting nine unanswered majors to win by one goal.

At the centre of the extraordinary finish, was a 6-6-6 infringement which saw Melbourne accidentally place an extra player in defence with eight seconds remaining. Having previously breached the rule earlier in the quarter, the repeat offence gifted St Kilda a free kick — one that landed in the hands of superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, who slotted his fourth goal of the game to seal a stunning victory.

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Speaking to Fox Footy’s On the Couch, Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley suggested Simon Goodwin’s side were left shell-shocked in response to the Saints’ late charge.

“You talk about ‘fight or flight’; well there’s another one, and that’s freeze. That’s pretty much what Melbourne did,” Buckley said on Monday night.

“There’s about a dozen things that Melbourne needed to get wrong. If they got one of them right, they probably stop that bit of play. There’s about a dozen things that St Kilda needed to get right, and if they get one of them wrong, they wouldn’t have been able to finish that play.

“It was a one-in-10,000, and they were able to execute it — and Melbourne weren’t.”

Demons lick their wounds after collapse | 02:08

Earlier on in the night to AFL 360, Melbourne great Garry Lyon zeroed in on the club’s on-field leaders during the debacle as an almost-hapless Simon Goodwin stood sidelines on the bench while disaster unfolded.

“It’s a fundamental breakdown in leadership, of which he sits at the head of it. The questions will be asked of him, and he didn’t back away from them — and nor should he,” Lyon began.

“I’m looking at the playing group (though). They’re senior footballers, I don’t need to kick them. They’ve been kicked enough, but they just fundamentally panicked.

“There is no question in the world that at three-quarter time, they checked out. ‘We have done enough — 45 points is more than enough’. The sin is there; the complacency puts them in a position at the end that they panic themselves into an embarrassment.

“They thought they won. They absolutely boxed St Kilda’s ears off; forward of the ball, behind the footy and at clearance. And they just said ‘that is enough’, there’s the problem.”

‘Cardinal sin!’ Where did Dees go wrong? | 02:58

Ironically, the Demons on Monday held an already-scheduled board meeting between, which according to Nine’s Tom Morris, would have nothing off the table in regards to solutions around the club’s sub-par 2025 performance.

Goodwin’s tenure is believed to be safe until season’s end, however pressure on his role as head coach has risen throughout the year. He is contracted to the club until the end of 2026.

“I’m not sacking the coach, and all that sort of stuff. There is emotion out there, I get it. Everyone gets emotional when you see that unfold like that,” Lyon added.

“Ironically, it was as good a three quarters as they’ve played for a long time.”

Goodwin owns ‘unacceptable’ Dees loss | 04:45

Three-time premiership player Jack Riewoldt added to On The Couch: “This would have to go close to nearly the worst quarter in football from a Melbourne point of view.

“I don’t think there’d be any club in this competition that would’ve said: ‘Let’s practice giving a 6-6-6 infraction away, when the scores are level with eight seconds left — so let’s put that on the table.”

“But, they should’ve either gone in to save the game, or win the game … but even before that, they’ve got a midfielder on the wing, a defender who goes into the forward line. It was a mess.”

Melbourne’s season finishes with matches against West Coast, the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Collingwood.



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