Fox Footy’s Premiership Window has returned with three rounds remaining in the home-and-away season, and it still says four teams are best-placed for a premiership tilt — but there’s been one key change since Round 16.
Teams that rank in the top six for points for and points against have won 18 of the last 20 AFL premierships; all 20 have ranked in the top six for points against.
This is the basis of On the Couch’s Premiership Window. Last year, the Window said Brisbane was a leading flag contender heading into the finals, while excluding Sydney; showing its credentials as a predictive tool.
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Four teams were in the Window after Round 16, and four sides are in it following Round 21, but there’s been a key swap in that time — Hawthorn out, Gold Coast in.
The Hawks are still one of the stingiest units in the league, ranking third for points against, but they’ve dropped from sixth to eighth for scoring.
Gold Coast, meanwhile, is still the fourth-best offence, as it was five weeks ago, but it has crucially risen from seventh to fourth for defence.
Collingwood, Adelaide and Geelong have retained their place in the Window since Round 16. Meanwhile, the closest outsiders to the Window are, in order, the Western Bulldogs, GWS, Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley said of the comparison between the contenders and also-rans: “Look at that big divide between the haves and the have-nots there. The top nine and the bottom nine, that’s only gotten bigger.”
The reigning premier Lions have slid further away from the Window in the past five weeks, but club legend Jonathan Brown isn’t concerned with where Brisbane sits after a telling win over Collingwood.
“I’m a big supporter of the Window, don’t get me wrong … but their (the Lions’) form against big teams, when they come against good opposition — Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood, namely — they step up to the plate,” Brown said on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.
“They’re a chance to work their way back in, but it will be concerning for me if you ask me after Round 24 and they’re sitting outside the Window, that’s very concerning.”
See where every team sits in the Fox Footy Premiership Window below.
THE FOX FOOTY PREMIERSHIP WINDOW (After Round 21)
Qualifying teams (18 of the last 20 premiers)
Collingwood (5th for points scored, 1st for points allowed)
Adelaide Crows (3rd for points scored, 2nd for points allowed)
Gold Coast Suns (4th for points scored, 4th for points allowed)
Geelong (2nd for points scored, 5th for points allowed)
Qualifying via defence only (all 20 premiers)
Hawthorn (8th for points scored, 3rd for points allowed)
Fremantle (9th for points scored, 6th for points allowed)
Not qualifying
Western Bulldogs (1st for points scored, 7th for points allowed)
GWS Giants (7th for points scored, 8th for points allowed)
Brisbane Lions (6th for points scored, 9th for points allowed)
Carlton (13th for points scored, 10th for points allowed)
Sydney Swans (12th for points scored, 11th for points allowed)
Melbourne (10th for points scored, 12th for points allowed)
St Kilda (11th for points scored, 13th for points allowed)
Port Adelaide (15th for points scored, 14th for points allowed)
Essendon (16th for points scored, 15th for points allowed)
Richmond (18th for points scored, 16th for points allowed)
North Melbourne (14th for points scored, 17th for points allowed)
West Coast Eagles (17th for points scored, 18th for points allowed)
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