Just one more month to go before the NRL finals kick off, and the battle for a top eight spot is on in earnest.
While the top three teams (Raiders, Storm, Bulldogs) are assured of playing extra football this season, the rest of the eight is still to be determined.
FOX LEAGUE, available on Kayo Sports, is the only place to watch every game of every round in the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership, LIVE with no ad-breaks during play. New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.
Tigers and Dragons fans, your team’s finals hopes aren’t yet over but they’re hanging on by a thread and the Panthers and Warriors are all but certainly locked in without it being official.
The snapshot with four weeks to go shows that the Broncos, Sharks, Dolphins, Roosters and Sea Eagles are the teams fighting for the 6th-8th spots on the ladder.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (38 points, +168)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 35.9%
Remaining games: Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)
Analysis: A hiccup against the Dragons, but like top sides do, they were able to quickly right the ship the following week against the Sea Eagles. It was essentially a four-point win as a bye was waiting for them this weekend. That bye takes them to 40 competition points, an outstanding achievement by the club. However, the Fox Sports Lab rates the Storm as the most likely team to win the minor premiership. Canberra fans will be cheering hard for the Panthers and the Roosters in Round 24 as if both teams win (against Storm and Bulldogs respectively), a Raiders minor premiership becomes almost certain. While they take on the Panthers on the other side of their bye, Canberra finish with the Tigers and Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Storm and Bulldogs both face far more daunting runs home including a clash against each other.
2. MELBOURNE STORM (36 points, +248)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 99.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 48.8%
Remaining games: Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)
Analysis: Still predicted by the Fox Sports Lab to finish atop the table at season’s end, but for that to happen, they’ll need to get moving! A huge game tonight against the defending champs and a win would see their minor premiership percentage spike. Melbourne have a considerably better points differential than the Raiders and Bulldogs, which gives them a big edge, but a terribly tough run home awaits. All of the teams left on Melbourne’s docket, bar the ninth-placed Roosters, are sitting in the top six. The Storm will have to play at least one of those games without Ryan Papenhuyzen while star half Jahrome Hughes isn’t likely back until Round 27 at the earliest.
3. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (36 points, +140)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 99%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 15.1%
Remaining games: Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)
Analysis: The Bulldogs put to rest any doubts over their ability to perform in the wet weather, with a clinical 32-14 win over the Warriors. Enari Tuala jagged a double and Viliame Kikau and Stephen Crichton also got across the line. The victory was huge in the context of the top four. Canterbury have now put a six-point gap between themselves and the fifth-placed Warriors, meaning a top four finish for the Dogs is close to being locked in with only four rounds remaining. The road ahead is a difficult one though. They take on a Roosters side that’s running hot after thumping the Dolphins 64-12 in Round 23, and then face back-to-back games against top four opponents in the Storm and the Panthers. It means a top two finish may be out of reach, and they may have to settle for third position.
Dogs looking to secure top 4 spot | 02:16
4. PENRITH PANTHERS (31 points, +119)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 61.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.2%
Remaining games: Storm (H), Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)
Analysis: A nine-game winning streak has seen the Panthers catapult themselves into the top four. It’s a stunning turnaround, given they were in last spot after Round 12. Their latest victory was a nine-try 48-12 thrashing of the Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium. While their revival has been remarkable, Penrith has a horror run home, with their next three games against the only three teams above them on the ladder. They’re also five points behind the third-placed Bulldogs with only four rounds remaining. With all that in mind, the Panthers’ focus should just be on consolidating fourth spot at this stage.
5. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (30 points, +8)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 96.3%
Chance of finishing top four: 28.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: A 32-14 loss to the Bulldogs cost the Warriors their top four spot, with the Panthers jumping above them after their win over the Knights. The Warriors’ attack was a concern against Canterbury. Their only two tries, scored by Samuel Healey and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, came about as a result of a kick and an intercept respectively. The Warriors are missing the direction that injured halfback Luke Metcalf provided them earlier in the season. The good news is their run is a favourable one, with their remaining four games coming against teams who are all currently outside the top eight. But as for the top four, the horse might have bolted.
6. BRISBANE BRONCOS (28 points, +104)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 83.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 6.8%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: The Broncos’ season has been turned on its head after a nightmare trip to Melbourne in Round 23. Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo all suffered hamstring injuries that will see them sidelined for an extended period. According to the Broncos, Reynolds is likely to miss four weeks, while Mam and Cobbo are both likely to be out for six or more weeks. On top of the loss of those three players, they also suffered a 22-2 defeat at the hands of the Storm. Next up is tough match up against the Dolphins and in Round 27, the Broncos have to play Melbourne again. There’s a very real possibility (16.9%) that Brisbane drop out of the eight altogether. Thankfully though, their run home is favourable. Three of the Broncos’ last four games are winnable, even without those players. But given the Panthers have now surged into the four, and with the Broncos’ injury toll, their top four hopes have dwindled down to just 6.8%.
7. CRONULLA SHARKS (28 points, +35)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 77.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 1.8%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Titans (H), bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: Expected to take care of business against the Dragons but failed to do so in what was a hit to their top four hopes. The Sharks are now in some danger of missing the eight given the eighth-placed Dolphins and ninth-placed Roosters are just two points behind with both teams boasting much better points differential than Cronulla. The Sharks’ top eight chances dropped from 89.6% to 77.8% after the loss to St. George-Illawarra. What’s in their favour is the cushy run home. As well as a bye, the Sharks have games against the struggling Knights and Titans to look forward to. However, another slip up against either of those sides could mean the Sharks may have to beat the Bulldogs in the final round just to make the eight!
8. DOLPHINS (26 points, +119)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 66.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 1.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: Will they fall short of a maiden finals berth for the third straight season? Four weeks ago, that would have been hard to fathom, but since the Dolphins have dropped two of four including a 52-point thumping at the hands of the Roosters. It has left their top eight hopes in limbo as the Roosters’ closed the massive points differential margin. They could drop out of the eight this weekend if they lose to the Broncos and the Roosters down the Bulldogs.
9. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (26 points, +72)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 66%
Chance of finishing top four: 1.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Tricolours are currently on the outside looking in, but the Fox Sports Lab are still fairly confident they’ll be playing finals football, with a top eight finish rated a 66% chance. It was a huge win from the Roosters last weekend in more ways than one. Thrashing the Dolphins by over 52 points had massive finals implications with those two sides sitting eight and nine on the ladder. Moreover, it resulted in a massive for and against swing. Before last week’s contest, the Dolphins’ points differential dropped from +171 to +119 while the Roosters’ went from +20 to +72. A true test awaits the Roosters this weekend with the Bulldogs coming to Allianz Stadium. With games against the Eels and Rabbitohs on the schedule, a win over the Dogs on Friday night will go a long way in locking in a top eight spot.
10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, -10)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 9.9%
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Analysis: It’s been a disappointing season for the Sea Eagles on several fronts. A team this talented really shouldn’t be sitting in 10th a month out from the finals. Yet, here they are and facing a steep uphill climb to progress to the postseason. In a huge boost for their late season push, rising star Lehi Hopoate returns from a shoulder injury. A tricky little test against a Tigers team with nothing to lose awaits Manly this weekend. Get through that, then matches against the Dolphins, Dragons and Warriors are next. Not a murderer’s row of opponents by any means, but the Sea Eagles haven’t given an indication this season that they will be able to catch fire and pull off four straight wins. If they win just three, there’s some hope they sneak into the eight, but will need to rely on other results as well.
11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (22 points, -50)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.7%
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)
Analysis: The giant killers! They’ve kept their super slim top eight hopes alive with impressive back-to-back wins over the Raiders and Sharks. A tough road trip awaits with the Warriors in New Zealand next before what should be a gimme against the Rabbitohs. Hot-and-cold Manly are their rivals in Round 26 and then Penrith to finish the regular season. If the Dragons can manage to win their next three, which is very doable, a date with a potentially weakened Panthers outfit is the final round assignment. If the Panthers are locked into a top four spot (they can’t finish higher than 4th) by Round 27, it’s near certain Ivan Cleary will rest his stars.
12. WESTS TIGERS (22 points, -121)
Predicted finish: 12th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.3%
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: In what may come as a surprise to many, the Tigers’ finals hopes haven’t been completely extinguished just yet. It’s less than 1%, but not impossible. In the penultimate round, they play the Raiders in Canberra which will be tough. Outside of that match up, Benji Marshall’s men have very winnable games against Manly, North Queensland and the Gold Coast. In addition, they are one of the healthier teams in the comp on the injury front. Win all four games and they give themselves a sniff, although they will have to win by some big margins to improve their points for and against.
13. PARRAMATTA EELS (20 points, -152)
Predicted finish: 13th
Chance of finishing in top eight: –
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)
Analysis: The Eels look like they’re improving week by week under rookie coach Jason Ryles and Mitchell Moses’ inclusion has been a major boost. The star halfback kicked a field goal that proved to be the difference against the Cowboys last week, leapfrogging them on the ladder into 13th place. Their run home will be a huge test of exactly how far they have come since their dreadful start to the 2025 campaign, facing two finals contenders and two teams sitting below them on the ladder. The Eels have already shown they can mix it with premiership contenders, but notching wins week in, week out proves to be the biggest ask for Ryles. Should Parramatta continue on their current trajectory there’s no reason why they shouldn’t win a minimum of two games to close out their year and with Isaiah Iongi yet to return, they will only get stronger.
Moses sprays Da Silva THREE times! | 00:34
14. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (19 points, -178)
Predicted finish: 14th
Chance of finishing in top eight: –
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye
Analysis: Heartbreak for the Cowboys in Round 23. Todd Payten’s outfit lost to a Mitchell Moses field goal in a game that had it all, even a try on the buzzer that was disallowed. North Queensland fought hard but ultimately weren’t good enough and will be hopeful of going two from two in their next pair of games. The Cowboys face the Knights and Tigers who sit around them on the ladder, before a Queensland Derby against the Broncos. Payten will be hopeful his side can build in their next two fixtures and deliver an upset in that game to close out their season with the bye in Round 27. Otherwise, there’s the future of Payten himself on the line for the Cowboys who have been disappointing overall this campaign.
15. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (18 points, -152)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing in top eight: –
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)
Analysis: It’s been a tough run for the Knights, whose last win came back in Round 16 against the Dolphins. However, a clash against a struggling Cowboys outfit comes at a perfect time for Newcastle who will be desperate to get back in the winner’s circle. Adam O’Brien’s side are only two points ahead of the Titans in the wooden spoon race, but have arguably an easier run home with fixtures against North Queensland the Eels. O’Brien has also made a big change to his backline in a bid to spark the Knights’ attack, bringing 19-year-old Connor Votano into the side for his NRL debut. Dane Gagai, after several valiant performances in the No. 1 jersey, have shifted back to the centres and O’Brien will be desperate to see his side change their fortunes this week.
16. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (18 points, -195)
Predicted finish: 16th
Chance of finishing in top eight: –
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Eels (H), Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)
Analysis: The return of Latrell Mitchell was a timely one for the Rabbitohs, who now have a small amount of breathing space as they attempt to avoid a wooden spoon. It would be the first of Wayne Bennett’s stellar, and long, career but now South Sydney have not only a two-point buffer, but also a bye in hand on the Titans. Their run home is also considerably easier and as it stands they don’t play a team inside the current top eight. Throw in the mix a host of players who could be set to return, such as Keaon Koloamatangi, Cody Walker, Mikaele Ravalawa, Jack Wighton and Campbell Graham and the Rabbitohs are in a strong position to potentially slide up the ladder on the run home.
17. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -155)
Predicted finish: 17th
Chance of finishing in top eight: –
Chance of finishing top four: –
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)
Analysis: The Titans had delivered two impressive performances prior to their crucial clash against the Rabbitohs. But now Des Hasler’s side are the frontrunners to win the spoon after losing a tight game 20-18, which has given South Sydney a two-point buffer to sit in 16th. What’s more is Wayne Bennett’s side have a bye in hand, while the Knights also sit one two points ahead. There’s still a heap to play for to close out this season, with skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui reportedly set to sit down with rivals at the season’s end. He is settled on the Gold Coast, and should the club get their coaching situation in order and fight to close out the year, that will give the Titans the best chance possible to retain their star enforcer. Looking ahead, there’s a tough run looming for Hasler’s side, who face three teams well and truly in the finals mix before the Tigers to close out their season.
Discussion about this post