Win-and-in stakes for Dockers, Lions to open Round 23 — Every AFL finals scenario explained

With three blockbusters between top-eight contenders, Round 23 is about to have a major impact on the shape of the finals race.

Fremantle and Brisbane play a virtual elimination final to begin the weekend, with the winner locked into September and the loser likely needing to win in Round 24 to make the eight.

Then on Saturday comes the highest-stakes Expansion Cup between Gold Coast and GWS ever, before the main event when Adelaide hosts Collingwood with the minor premiership within reach.

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FULL RUN HOME COLUMN: Every team’s best and worst-case scenarios heading into Round 23

Scroll down to see a brief state of play on the finals scenarios for the nine contenders. This article will be updated across the weekend. All times AEST.

Last updated: Before Round 23

ADELAIDE CROWS

Start of round: 1st, 16-5, 142.4%

Round 23 game: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

WIN: Top two spot guaranteed. Would clinch the minor premiership if Geelong loses on Sunday, would otherwise clinch it with a win over North Melbourne next week.

LOSE: Can still miss the top four with a loss next week and other results. Due to excellent percentage, extremely likely to still make the top two if they win next week.

Results they’d like to see: Sydney def Geelong (hands them the minor premiership if they beat Collingwood)

GEELONG

Start of round: 2nd, 15-6, 139.8%

Round 23 game: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Sunday 3:15pm

WIN: Virtually locked into top four and will claim a top-two spot if they beat Richmond next week. Can still claim the minor premiership if Adelaide loses a game.

LOSE: Still very likely to make the top four if they win next week, but could otherwise drop as low as 8th depending on other results across the final two rounds.

Results they’d like to see: Nothing critical, but Adelaide def Collingwood would make the Cats more likely to finish in the top two

COLLINGWOOD

Start of round: 3rd, 15-6, 124.2%

Round 23 game: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

WIN: Guaranteed of playing finals. Likely to make the top four and would clinch it with a win over Melbourne next week. Can finish top two if Adelaide loses again or if Geelong loses once.

LOSE: Can still sneak into top four by winning next week, but can still miss the eight if they lose to Melbourne with other results going against them.

Results they’d like to see: Gold Coast def GWS (Pies cannot realistically miss the eight if this happens), Melbourne def Hawthorn, West Coast def Western Bulldogs (both keep them safer in the eight/four)

FREMANTLE

Start of round: 4th, 15-6, 112.7%

Round 23 game: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:35pm

WIN: Guaranteed of playing finals and very likely to make the top four with a win over Western Bulldogs next week. With a loss next week would be likely to host an elimination final.

LOSE: Almost certainly can’t make the top four. Would need to win next week to be guaranteed a finals place, and with a loss, would be more likely than not to miss the finals entirely.

Results they’d like to see: Adelaide def Collingwood (means if Fremantle wins, they will be guaranteed top four with a Round 24 win as well), Gold Coast def GWS (if Dockers go 0-2, they need the Giants to lose at least once), Melbourne def Hawthorn, West Coast def Western Bulldogs (guaranteed finals if this happens regardless of the Friday night result)

BRISBANE LIONS

Start of round: 5th, 14-6-1, 111.3%

Round 23 game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:35pm

WIN: Guaranteed of playing finals and very likely to make the top four with a win over Hawthorn next week. With a loss next week would be likely to host an elimination final.

LOSE: Almost certainly can’t make the top four. Would need to win next week to be guaranteed a finals place, and with a loss, would be more likely than not to miss the finals entirely.

Results they’d like to see: Adelaide def Collingwood (means if Brisbane wins, they will be guaranteed top four with a Round 24 win as well), Gold Coast def GWS, West Coast def Western Bulldogs (if the Lions go 0-2, they need the Giants or Dogs to lose at least once)

GOLD COAST SUNS

Start of round: 6th, 14-6, 125.1%

Round 23 game: GWS Giants at People First Stadium, Saturday 12:35pm

WIN: Virtually clinch a finals spot due to their strong percentage. Would be favoured to make the top four with one more win over Port Adelaide or Essendon, and virtually guaranteed to make the top four if they win both. Could even sneak into the top two if Geelong drops a game. If they lose both Round 24 games, unless something crazy happens, they’d be heading into an elimination final which could still be at home.

LOSE: Still need a win in Round 24 to clinch a September debut but could yet sneak into the top four if they win both of their remaining games.

Results they’d like to see: Adelaide def Collingwood, Sydney def Geelong (both make them much more likely to make the top four or top two), Melbourne def Hawthorn, West Coast def Western Bulldogs (both keep them safer in the eight/four)

HAWTHORN

Start of round: 7th, 14-7, 121.2%

Round 23 game: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

WIN: Almost guaranteed a finals place though there are realistic scenarios where they’d miss out on percentage. Would be a slightly-better-than-even chance of making the top four if they also beat Brisbane.

LOSE: Still need to beat Brisbane next week otherwise very likely to miss the finals. Can’t make the top four.

Results they’d like to see: Brisbane def Fremantle (because they can then beat Brisbane next week and move above both teams, and because they’d stay in the eight if Freo loses in Round 24 with them), Gold Coast def GWS (keeps them safer in the eight, though less likely to make top four), West Coast def Western Bulldogs (locks them into the eight if they beat Melbourne)

GWS GIANTS

Start of round: 8th, 14-7, 114.1%

Round 23 game: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium, Saturday 12:35pm

WIN: Very likely to play finals but need a win over St Kilda next week to guarantee it. Small chance of making top four if they win next week.

LOSE: Almost certain to miss the finals if they lose next week. Would likely start Round 24 in ninth and need to win while other results go their way to guarantee a finals place; could still finish above the Bulldogs or the Fremantle/Brisbane loser. Can’t make the top four.

Results they’d like to see: Brisbane def Fremantle (means Giants should finish above the loser of Dogs-Freo next week, as long as they win once), Melbourne def Hawthorn (gives them a great chance of finishing above the Hawks), West Coast def Western Bulldogs (means they still play finals as long as they win once)

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Start of round: 9th, 13-8, 135.4%

Round 23 game: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadum, Sunday 4:40pm

WIN: Will play finals if they beat Fremantle next week (would finish above at least one of Freo, Brisbane or Hawthorn). Could even sneak into the top four if the Pies lose and the Suns lose a couple of times, though more realistically would be hoping for a home elimination final. If they lose next week would need one of Gold Coast, Hawthorn or GWS to lose all of their remaining games to make the eight.

LOSE: Can only play finals if at least one of Gold Coast, Hawthorn or GWS loses too. The Hawks losing would be the most important given they have the toughest Round 24 fixture.

Results they’d like to see: Adelaide def Collingwood (keeps very small top four hopes alive). Melbourne def Hawthorn, Gold Coast def GWS (either would keep them alive into Round 24 and/or make them much more likely to earn a home elimination final)