Just eight games to go before the NRL finals kick off, and the battle for a top eight spot has come down to the wire for the Roosters and Dolphins, while the top four race is still wide open.
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While the top seven teams are assured of playing finals this season, eighth spot is still up for grabs between the Roosters, Dolphins and the Sea Eagles.
Meanwhile, the Broncos, Sharks and Warriors are locked in a tense battle for fourth spot and a second chance in the finals.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (44 points, +186)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Remaining games: Dolphins (A)
Analysis: The Raiders locked up a first minor premiership in 35 years with a 24-10 win over the Tigers. Ricky Stuart has rested a number of stars for their final clash with the Dolphins to freshen up for the finals, which could backfire if they start slowly in their first final against the Broncos, Sharks or Warriors. However, the Raiders have earned top spot and two home finals at GIO Stadium and a second chance if they lose their first final. The Raiders may have an inexperienced backline when it comes to finals footy, but their pack is full of representative players and they will back themselves to go all the way in 2025.
2. MELBOURNE STORM (40 points, +228)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Remaining games: Broncos (A)
Analysis: The Storm were thrashed by the Roosters 40-10, but are guaranteed to finish the season in second place meaning they will host a home final against the Bulldogs in week one. Craig Bellamy was filthy at his players for conceding 40 second half points and they will be primed for a bounce back against the Broncos, who are looking to cement a top four spot. Jahrome Hughes is due back from a shoulder injury and the Storm will hold their breath he can get through the rest of the season because it will be difficult to win a title without him. However, if the Storm can stay healthy they have the best team on paper in the NRL and their 2024 Grand Final heartbreak will burn brightly.
3. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (38 points, +138)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Remaining games: Sharks (H)
Analysis: The Bulldogs beat a depleted Panthers side 28-4 to seal a top four berth and will take on the Storm in the first week of the finals at AAMI Park. There is no doubt the Bulldogs’ attack is still a work in progress with Lachlan Galvin at halfback and Bailey Hayward at hooker, but they have the defence to make a deep finals run. Cameron Ciraldo’s side can go into the finals with their tails up if they can beat the in form Sharks in their final regular season game and they will get a second chance and a home final in week two if they can’t get past the Storm.
4. BRISBANE BRONCOS (34 points, +156)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 65.7%
Remaining games: Storm (H)
Analysis: The Broncos were not convincing, but they got the job done in a 38-30 win over the Cowboys to move into the top four. Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt have been in great form in the absence of injured halves Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam. Reynolds is bidding to return for the first week of finals after a setback at training. However, Michael Maguire’s side still have to get past the Storm, who they have a horror record against in the final round to finish top four or hope the Sharks and Warriors falter. But with Payne Haas and Walsh in career best form, the Broncos are a real chance at a drought-breaking title.
5. CRONULLA SHARKS (34 points, +91)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 21.6%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The Sharks continued their strong finish to the season by beating the Knights 40-16 to move to fifth on the ladder and keep the pressure on the Broncos and Warriors for a top four finish. However, the Sharks face a tough clash with the Bulldogs in their final regular season game and then have to hope the Storm beat the Broncos to finish in the top four. Cronulla have had a soft run home and need a big scalp like the Bulldogs to prove they can beat the top teams in September, but they have beaten the Storm earlier this year. If not they will likely finish fifth or sixth and host the Panthers or Roosters in the first week of the finals. But with Nicho Hynes and Addin Fonua-Blake in the team, the Sharks are a real dark horse for the title and they are flying under the radar.
6. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (34 points, +22)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 12.7%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: The Warriors continued their late season form slump with an upset 26-22 loss to the Eels, which saw them knocked out of the top four. However, Andrew Webster’s side can still finish fourth if they beat the Sea Eagles and the Broncos and Sharks both lose their last games against the Storm and Bulldogs respectively. The Warriors have lost four of their last six games and desperately need to beat Manly to find some form heading into September and get a second chance and a home final if they make the four. The loss of Luke Metcalf to a season-ending knee injury has thrown their title charge off course and they will struggle to make an impact in the finals in this sort of form.
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7. PENRITH PANTHERS (31 points, +87)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Remaining games: Dragons (A)
Analysis: The Panthers were beaten by the Bulldogs 28-4 after resting 16 stars for their penultimate clash of the regular season. Ivan Cleary’s side stormed back into the top eight with a nine game winning streak, but have since lost two golden point games to the Storm and Raiders and to the Bulldogs, who are all leading contenders for the title. However, given they are coming off five grand finals and four straight titles, if anyone can be the first team to win a premiership from outside the four it is the Panthers. As long as Nathan Cleary is in the team they will give themselves a chance against any team. First they have to find some form in their final game against the Dragons, before a first round clash with the Broncos, Sharks or Warriors away from home.
8. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (30 points, +102)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 90.2%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Roosters are in the box seat to make the top eight after beating the Storm 40-10 courtesy of a 40-0 second half blitz at AAMI Park. However, they need to get past their arch rivals the Rabbitohs in the final round to cement a finals berth or rely on the Dolphins losing to the Raiders or having a worse points differential. Souths would love nothing more than to knock the Roosters out of the finals, but emotion alone won’t beat an in form Roosters side who have won four of their last five. James Tedesco is in Dally M Medal winning form and Sam Walker is back on deck. But the Roosters were tipped to make the top four this season, so if they can’t make finals it will be a massive failure of a season for Trent Robinson’s side.
9. DOLPHINS (28 points, +87)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 9.7%
Remaining games: Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Dolphins did it the hard way, but got the job done in a 36-30 win over the Titans to take their maiden finals bid down to the last round. First thing’s first the Dolphins must beat the Raiders by enough to make their points differential better than the Roosters, who must lose their final game to Souths. The Dolphins no longer have their destiny in their own hands, but Kristian Woolf’s team deserve to play finals given what they have produced this season ,especially given their injury woes. But with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Isaiya Katoa in the team, they can beat a depleted Raiders, who are resting some players, and hope the Roosters slip up.
10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (28 points, +20)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%
Remaining games: Warriors (H)
Analysis: The Sea Eagles kept their slim finals hopes alive with a 40-24 win over the Dragons, but will need a small miracle to advance to September footy. Firstly, the Sea Eagles need to upset the Warriors and improve their points differential by about 40 points. Then they need the Dolphins and the Roosters to lose, but they will need Souths to beat the Chooks by about 40 points. Any team with Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic in it are capable of piling on the points, especially at Brookvale and the Warriors are vulnerable, but it looks like Manly have left their finals charge too late after four straight losses prior to their two last wins.
ELIMINATED FROM FINALS CONTENTION
11. WESTS TIGERS (24 points, -127)
Remaining games: Titans (A)
Analysis: After bombing a late 28-16 lead over the Cowboys a fortnight ago, the Tigers’ top eight hopes were officially extinguished. They tried hard last week against Canberra in what was a gallant effort and perhaps showed their loyal legion of fans that they aren’t that far off where they need to be going forward. They end their season on the glitter strip with a win delivering a wooden spoon to their opponents.
12. PARRAMATTA EELS (24 points, -132)
Remaining games: Knights (H)
Analysis: Officially three straight seasons missing the top eight for the Eels, but there are so many positive signs heading into the off-season. The Eels have won four of their past six, including wins over the Roosters and Broncos. They have a terrific chance to end with three straight as they finish with Newcastle at home.
13. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (24 points, -151)
Remaining games: Roosters (A)
Analysis: A very strong finish to the season for the Rabbitohs, who have now won three straight games, including their 40-0 thrashing of the Dragons in Round 25 to lift themselves out of wooden spoon contention. Just the one game left for South Sydney. They will take on their fiercest of rivals in the Roosters. The red and green faithful would love nothing more than to knock their arch enemies out of the finals.
14. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (23 points, -146)
Remaining games: bye
Analysis: The Cowboys’ season ended last weekend with a 38-30 Queensland Derby loss to the Broncos. A very disappointing season in Townsville, but it appears coach Todd Payten has done enough to keep his job.
15. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (22 points, -110)
Remaining games: Panthers (H)
Analysis: It’s been a tough few weeks for the Dragons. Things only get harder this Saturday night, with a date against the four-peat Panthers to close out the second season of the Shane Flanagan reign.
16. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (18 points, -244)
Remaining games: Eels (A)
Analysis: Even though their opposition wasn’t at their best last week, they still managed to lose by a big margin in a 40-16 defeat at the hands of Cronulla. The Knights will know by their Sunday 4pm game if a wooden spoon is still possible. If the Titans lose to the Tigers on Saturday, Gold Coast will collect the unwanted prize.
17. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -207)
Remaining games: Tigers (H)
Analysis: To avoid the wooden spoon, they need to beat the Tigers and hope the Knights lose to the Eels. Given how poorly Newcastle have been of late, a Knights loss seems all but certain whereas the Titans are more than good enough to beat the Tigers on their day. If the Gold Coast can win, the wooden spoon will come down to the final match of the season.
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