Miracle run sparks top-four dream amid 12-team fight to stop the champs — AFLW Run Home after Round 10

Safe to say the AFLW finals race is a bit different to the men’s season we just witnessed.

Though it sure looks like we’ll get a back-to-back women’s premier, too.

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There’s no question what’s going on at the top. North Melbourne, having won 22 consecutive games, is the red-hot flag favourite. Unless they try a Ross Lyon-style mass resting of players over the next two weeks, they will head into the finals having broken Geelong’s V/AFL/W record of 23 consecutive wins (set in 1952-53).

The Kangaroos have won every game by at least 29 points – and that low mark came away to perennial contenders Brisbane. They are ridiculously, scarily and concerning-for-competitive-balance-ingly good.

The race to likely face them for the flag, and to make the eight altogether, is a lot more interesting.

With two rounds left in the 12-game season, there are still 13 teams mathematically alive in the finals race, while seven teams are battling it out for the last three spots in the top four.

It’s a lot closer than it may first look on the ladder, because with lower-scoring games (and fewer of them), percentages can change wildly based on one result.

And while just six clubs have ever made an AFLW Grand Final, there’s a real chance we’ll see a new face on the final day of the season in 2025.

Foxfooty.com.au runs through the finals scenarios and more in The Run Home!

AFLW RUN HOME CLUB-BY-CLUB BREAKDOWN

1. North Melbourne (10-0, 317.7%)

To play: St Kilda at North Hobart Oval, Hawthorn at Kinetic Stadium

That final-round test against the Hawks will not only shape the top four, and thus who the Kangaroos will play in the finals, but provides an interesting test. Do they rest players to prepare themselves for the post-season? Do they go all-out to protect the streak? Or, heck, are they good enough to beat a top-four rival WHILE resting players? A second straight flag has to be the priority for a team that’s becoming one of the greatest in modern footy history, so that will determine their decision.

2. Melbourne (8-2, 248.5%)

To play: Brisbane Lions at Brighton Home Arena, Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Their percentage suggests they’re pretty clearly the second-best team in it, but two narrow interstate defeats to Port Adelaide and Fremantle mean the Demons are no sure thing of making the top four. Especially because they cop the Lions this Saturday night, before a trip to face a Cats side potentially playing for its season. That percentage, built up in massive wins over St Kilda (74 points) and Gold Coast (87 points), should mean Melbourne gets the double chance with just one more win – and they can’t be caught for second if they win twice. Being in the second vs third qualifying final is kinda important since it’s the cleanest Kangaroo-less path to the Grand Final…

3. Hawthorn (8-2, 110.9%)

To play: Essendon at Windy Hill, North Melbourne at Frankston

Coming off a very disappointing loss to Port Adelaide the priority for the Hawks, oddly enough, should be preparing for Essendon and not North Melbourne. Sure, in an ideal world they’d love to beat the Kangaroos in the final round, but beating the Bombers by as much as possible to boost their percentage is their best path to a top-four finish. And, if Melbourne beats Brisbane this week, the Hawks would be very likely to finish third as long as they beat Essendon. There’s some logic to wanting to finish fourth and play North Melbourne in a qualifying final, because then you can’t get eliminated by them before the Grand Final, though it’s a stretch – you’d rather just finish second or third and try and win your way into a home prelim.

4. Brisbane Lions (7-3, 165.7%)

To play: Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena, Collingwood at Victoria Park

The Lions are still in a strong position to make the top four even if they lose at home to the Demons, because of their excellent percentage and the fact St Kilda has to face North Melbourne. Those factors mean one more win will likely earn the perennially-contending Lions a double chance, and should clinch the club the McClelland Trophy for combined men’s and women’s team performance. But if the Lions win both of their remaining games, they’re bound for the second vs third qualifying final – second is going to be very hard to reach unless they smash Melbourne (or Melbourne loses twice).

5. St Kilda (7-3, 109.1%)

To play: North Melbourne at North Hobart Oval, Western Bulldogs at RSEA Park

An incredible six-game winning run has Nick Dal Santo’s side poised for a finals debut, even though just one of those wins (last week vs Carlton) came over a genuine top-eight contender. One more victory will clinch their place and while they’ll be dreaming of an upset over the Kangaroos, the more likely scenario is they’ll head into the final round against the Bulldogs needing a win to confirm their place – though they could also hang on with seven wins if other results fall their way. To make the top four they would probably require Brisbane to lose both remaining games and none of West Coast, Adelaide or Carlton to win their remaining two. (Because the Saints aren’t beating North… right?)

6. West Coast Eagles (6-4, 125.4%)

To play: Sydney Swans at Henson Park, Carlton at Sullivan Logistics Stadium

It turns out Daisy Pearce is kinda just good at everything in footy, because she’s threatening to lead her Eagles into a debut finals campaign – after sitting at the bottom ever since their introduction to the league. With a strong percentage, just one more win is likely to clinch them a finals place, though two will be needed to absolutely guarantee it. They could easily finish anywhere between fifth and eighth.

7. Adelaide Crows (6-4, 112.8%)

To play: Port Adelaide at Norwood Oval, Fremantle at Norwood Oval

The upset loss to Richmond a few weeks ago, combined with last round’s expected but still painful 40-point loss to North Melbourne, has the usually high-flying Crows needing at least one more win to clinch a finals place. And with both the Power and Dockers playing for their seasons, these won’t be easy games. It’s likely Adelaide qualifies with one more win because they’re effectively two games clear of everyone below them bar Carlton and Sydney, but it’d be nervy if they drop the Showdown.

8. Carlton (6-4, 103.4%)

To play: GWS Giants at Ikon Park, West Coast Eagles at Sullivan Logistics Stadium

They’ve cooled off since their 6-2 start to the season, and the loss to the Saints last weekend could really come back to hurt them, but they’re still right in this. It’s shaping as a three-team fight for the last two spots in the eight between the Blues, Swans and Eagles (since there are two losses to be spread across the three teams when the Eagles face both of the other two). Based on that logic, the Blues would love to see West Coast beat Sydney this weekend, as in combination with a victory over GWS they’d be almost locked into the finals.

9. Sydney Swans (5-5, 105.2%)

To play: West Coast at Henson Park, Essendon at C.ex Coffs International Stadium

Their 4-0 start looks a long time ago now, with the Swans’ mid-season losses to lowly Collingwood and GWS potentially costing them a spot in the finals. Their destiny is still somewhat in their hands as, if they beat both the Eagles and Bombers at home, they’d be very unlucky to miss out. Dropping one more game probably ends their campaign.

10. Fremantle (5-5, 72.3%)

To play: Richmond at Fremantle Oval, Adelaide at Norwood Oval

They’ve done well to crawl out of the hole they found themselves in early in the season, when those two massive losses to Brisbane and North Melbourne obliterated their percentage. Sitting 16th after Round 4, the Dockers are a sneaky chance of making the eight if they win their two remaining games, though they would need at least two of the Eagles, Crows, Blues and Swans to get stuck on six (or fewer) wins. The simplest scenario there would be Adelaide losing to Port Adelaide this week, and Sydney dropping one.

11. Western Bulldogs (4-6, 121.2%)

To play: Geelong at Mars Stadium, St Kilda at RSEA Park

12. Port Adelaide (4-6, 93.6%)

To play: Adelaide Crows at Norwood Oval, GWS Giants at Henson Park

13. Geelong (4-6, 92.1%)

To play: Western Bulldogs at Mars Stadium, Melbourne at GMHBA Stadium

All three of these teams need a lot of help to play finals, but it’s possible any of them could win a tie on six wins. The Bulldogs’ percentage gives them the best chance by far, because it gives them two extra teams to potentially catch (West Coast and Adelaide are within reach) though if either Port or Geelong finish 2-0 they could still pass all three of Carlton, Sydney and Fremantle and sneak in. Very unlikely any of this trio makes it, though.

Essendon, GWS, Richmond, Collingwood and Gold Coast cannot make the finals.