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2026 Oscar Nominations Predictions and Analysis

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(Left) Leonardo Di Caprio as Bob Ferguson in ‘One Battle After Another.’ A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures. (Left Center) Jessie Buckley stars as Agnes in director Chloé Zhao’s ‘Hamnet’, a Focus Features release. Credit: Agata Grzybowska / © 2025 FOCUS FEATURES LLC. (Center Right) Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme’. Photo: A24. (Right) Michael B. Jordan as Smoke in Warner Bros. Pictures’ ‘Sinners,’ a Warner Bros. Pictures release. Photo Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures. Copyright: © 2025 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Now that the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes have been handed out, the official Oscar race is about to begin!

It will start on January 22nd when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announce the Oscar nominees, with the 98th Oscars Ceremony scheduled for March 15th.

At this point, we do have a confirmed frontrunner in the Best Picture race with ‘One Battle After Another‘, but don’t count out ‘Hamnet‘ or ‘Sinners‘ just yet.

Sinners

Release Date: Apr 18, 2025

Run Time: 2 hr 18 min

Budget: $90,000,000

While directors Paul Thomas Anders, Ryan Coogler, and Chloé Zhao are locks for Best Director nominations, the other two spots seem wide open with Josh Safdie and Guillermo del Toro fighting off foreign film directors Joachim Trier, Kleber Mendonça Filho, and Jafar Panahi for nominations.

In the Best Actor race, Timothée Chalamet seems to be the frontrunner, but will have some competition from Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and especially Wagner Moura, who recently won a Golden Globe. However, the academy might as well hand the Best Actress Oscar to Jessie Buckley right now, as she is about as solid a lock to win as you can have.

The Academy Awards will air live March 15th on ABC and Hulu.

The Academy Awards will air live March 15th on ABC and Hulu.

The supporting categories are much more wide open, with Amy Madigan and Teyana Taylor facing off in the Best Supporting Actress category, and it could be anyone’s win in the Best Supporting Actor category between ‘One Battle’s Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro, Stellan Skarsgård, Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal, who should all likely receive nominations.

Moviefone is making its Oscar nomination predictions for the major categories including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, ahead of the nominee announcements on January 22nd.

Let’s begin!

Related Article: ‘Hamnet’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ Win at the 2026 Golden Globes


BEST PICTURE

Leonardo Di Caprio as Bob Ferguson in 'One Battle After Another.' A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures.

Leonardo Di Caprio as Bob Ferguson in ‘One Battle After Another.’ A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Photo Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures.

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix:

BEST DIRECTOR

(L to R) Leonardo Di Caprio and Director/Writer/Producer Paul Thomas Anderson on the set of 'One Battle After Another.' A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Merrick Morton.

(L to R) Leonardo Di Caprio and Director/Writer/Producer Paul Thomas Anderson on the set of ‘One Battle After Another.’ A Warner Bros. Pictures Release. Photo Credit: Merrick Morton.

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix:

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet in 'Marty Supreme'. Photo: A24.

Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme’. Photo: A24.

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix:

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley stars as Agnes in director Chloé Zhao’s 'Hamnet', a Focus Features release. Credit: Agata Grzybowska / © 2025 FOCUS FEATURES LLC

Jessie Buckley stars as Agnes in director Chloé Zhao’s ‘Hamnet’, a Focus Features release. Credit: Agata Grzybowska / © 2025 FOCUS FEATURES LLC

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix: 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Stellan Skarsgård in 'Sentimental Value'. Photo: Kasper Tuxen Andersen.

Stellan Skarsgård in ‘Sentimental Value’. Photo: Kasper Tuxen Andersen.

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix: 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Madigan as Gladys in New Line Cinema’s 'Weapons,' a Warner Bros. Pictures release. Photo Credit: Quantrell Colbert. Copyright: © 2025 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Amy Madigan as Gladys in New Line Cinema’s ‘Weapons,’ a Warner Bros. Pictures release. Photo Credit: Quantrell Colbert. Copyright: © 2025 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Nominee Predictions:

In The Mix: 

Don’t forget to watch the 98th Academy Award ceremony Sunday, March 15th on ABC.

Oscars Logo Courtesy of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

Oscars Logo Courtesy of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.



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