Brownlow Medal 2023 top contenders: Five players can win. Here’s what’ll decide it

The AFL’s night of nights will see the 2023 Brownlow Medallist crowned – but who take the title of best and fairest?

Collingwood young gun Nick Daicos is expected to be the early leader before a knee injury leaves his Brownlow hopes hanging by a thread.

Fox Footy takes a look at the five favourites for this year’s title, including games expected to poll, the mystery games and what it all means for the final result. (All odds via Pointsbet.)

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Nick Daicos (Collingwood)

Odds: $2.75

Bank the three

-Round 2 W v Port Adelaide (32 disposals, two goals)

-Round 5 W v St Kilda (42 disposals, eight inside 50s, 846m gained)

-Round 6 W v Essendon (40 disposals, two goals)

-Round 9 W v GWS (41 disposals, nine score involvements)

-Round 12 W v West Coast (30 disposals, three goals)

-Round 15 W v Adelaide (37 disposals – 15 contested, nine clearances, one goal)

-Round 16 W v Gold Coast (36 disposals, 10 tackles, one goal)

-Round 17 W v Western Bulldogs (29 disposals, 11 clearances, two goals)

-Round 18 W v Fremantle (36 disposals, seven clearances, one goal)

Games that could go either way

-Round 1 W v Geelong (35 disposals, nine score involvements)

-Round 3 W v Richmond (33 disposals)

-Round 4 L v Brisbane (38 disposals – 16 contested, two goals)

-Round 11 W v North Melbourne (32 disposals, seven clearances, one goal)

-Round 20 L v Carlton (28 disposals, nine clearances, two behinds)

Verdict

There’s no doubt Nick Daicos is going to be an early runaway leader – but the question remains can he hold on? A serious knee injury ended his season early in Round 21 so the young Pie is going to have a nervous wait knowing he doesn’t poll again. The Pies certainly won enough games to give Daicos an edge on his rivals. The young gun remains equal favourite to create history and win the Brownlow Medal in just his second season.

Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)

Odds: $2.75

Bank the three

-Round 6 W v Fremantle (31 disposals – 18 contested, 10 tackles, eight clearances, two goals)

-Round 8 W v GWS (32 disposals – 26 contested, 14 clearances, one goal)

-Round 14 W v North Melbourne (32 disposals, 11 tackles, three goals)

-Round 21 W v Richmond (32 disposals, 10 clearances, three goals)

Games that could go either way

-Round 3 W v Brisbane (28 disposals, 8 clearances, six tackles)

-Round 4 W v Richmond (25 disposals – 17 contested, 11 clearances, 12 tackles)

-Round 10 W v Adelaide (30 disposals, one goal)

-Round 11 L v Gold Coast (27 disposals, 11 tackles, nine clearances)

-Round 16 W v Fremantle (27 disposals – 15 contested, nine clearances, one goal)

-Round 18 L v Sydney (31 disposals, 11 score involvements, two goals)

-Round 19 W v Essendon (29 disposals, two goals, 645 metres gained)

-Round 23 L v West Coast (32 disposals, one goal)

-Round 24 W v Geelong (31 disposals, 10 tackles)

Verdict

There’s no denying the ‘Bont’ had a brilliant season – but his biggest obstacle to claiming a first Brownlow Medal will come from teammates including Tom Liberatore and Adam Treloar. In matches where Bontempelli stood tall, his midfield partners in crime were right there alongside him. The Dogs’ win tally could also count against him as his side didn’t make finals. Bontempelli, the reigning Leigh Matthews Trophy holder as AFLPA MVP, is attempting to become the first Bulldog since Adam Cooney back in 2008 to win the coveted title. He’ll come charging late with some great end of year performances.

Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)

Odds: $5

Bank the three

-Round 5 W v Western Bulldogs (32 disposals, seven clearances, one goal)

-Round 9 W v North Melbourne (32 disposals, 495m gained)

-Round 10 W v Melbourne (41 disposals, 10 clearances, two goals)

-Round 23 W v Fremantle (31 disposals, five tackles, one goal)

Games that could go either way

-Round 4 W v Sydney (27 disposals, one goal)

-Round 8 W v Essendon (28 disposals, 615m gained, six clearances)

-Round 11 W v Richmond (32 disposals, one goal)

-Round 12 W v Hawthorn (26 disposals, seven tackles, one goal)

-Round 13 W v Western Bulldogs (31 disposals, one goal)

-Round 19 L v Collingwood (31 disposals, six clearances)

-Round 21 L v Geelong (30 disposals, seven inside 50s, one goal)

-Round 22 W v GWS (34 disposals, seven clearances)

-Round 24 W v Richmond (30 disposals, nine clearances)

Verdict

Like Bontempelli, Zak Butters is set to be cruelled by teammates including the likes of Connor Rozee when it comes to winning the big votes. Also working against Butters is the fact some of his best performances came in losing sides – making it harder to get the all-important three votes from umpires. The fact Butters’ form fluctuated greatly throughout the year could also cost him come the final count, with a few games this season of less than 20 disposals.

Christian Petracca (Melbourne)

Odds: $6.50

Bank the three

-Round 3 W v Sydney (33 disposals – 19 contested, nine inside 50s, six clearances)

-Round 7 W v North Melbourne (35 disposals, nine inside 50s, three goals)

-Round 12 W v Carlton (32 disposals, seven clearances, one goal)

-Round 15 L v Geelong (33 disposals, 10 clearances, one goal)

-Round 18 W v Brisbane (26 disposals, seven clearances, four goals)

Games that could go either way

-Round 1 W v Western Bulldogs (30 disposals, eight clearances, two behinds)

-Round 4 W v West Coast (29 disposals, three goals)

-Round 5 L v Essendon (27 disposals, 11 clearances, one goal)

-Round 8 W v Gold Coast (26 disposals, eight clearances, one goal)

-Round 11 L v Fremantle (30 disposals, eight clearances)

-Round 16 L v GWS (34 disposals, 685m gained, four behinds)

-Round 17 W v St Kilda (20 disposals, four goals)

-Round 20 W v Richmond (29 disposals, eight clearances, one goal)

-Round 21 W v North Melbourne (27 disposals, six clearances, two goals)

Verdict

The Melbourne premiership winner is set to come home strongly, at a time when midfield teammate Clayton Oliver was sidelined by a hamstring issue. Petracca is also expected to poll strongly in games where he was used forward to plug the Dees’ sinking attack end – including two games where he kicked four goals. Petracca performed strongly in losses to Geelong and GWS so it will be interesting to see how the umpires judge those matches.

Lachie Neale (Brisbane)

Odds: $13

Bank the three

-Round 5 W v North Melbourne (37 disposals, 13 clearances)

-Round 7 W v Fremantle (35 disposals, 13 clearances, seven tackles)

-Round 10 W v Gold Coast (35 disposals, 10 clearances)

-Round 16 W v Richmond (34 disposals, 10 clearances, two goals)

-Round 24 W v St Kilda (30 disposals, 10 clearances)

Games that could go either way

-Round 2 W v Melbourne (27 disposals, eight clearances)

-Round 3 L v Western Bulldogs (31 disposals, eight clearances, one goal)

-Round 9 W v Essendon (34 disposals, eight inside 50s)

-Round 11 L v Adelaide (26 disposals, 11 clearances, eight tackles)

-Round 14 W v Sydney (29 disposals, 10 clearances)

-Round 15 W v St Kilda (29 disposals, nine clearances)

-Round 17 W v West Coast (32 disposals, eight clearances, one behind)

-Round 23 W v Collingwood (31 disposals, 10 clearances)

Verdict

When Lachie Neale ran hot, he was unstoppable in season 2023. But hampered by a shoulder issue late, it seems last year’s Brownlow runner-up might fall short again. The Lions star also performed strongly in losing sides, meaning the three votes are unlikely. Expect Neale to poll in plenty of games.