If you are a favourite backer, the Melbourne Cup probably isn’t the race for you.
No favourite has won the ‘race that stops the nation’ since Fiorente in 2013 and in only three years since 2006 has the top-elect in the market finished in the first three.
In fact, in 162 editions of the great race, only 34 favourites have saluted at a strike rate of just under 21%.
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In 2021, Incentivise started a $2.90 favourite but could only manage second behind winner Verry Elleegant.
Last year, an international called Deauville Legend arrived on our shores all the rage. He began at $4.40 odds, but just missed the placings and finished fourth.
Fast forward to present day, and this year’s edition has the Willie Mullens-trained Vauban, who is set to begin favourite when the gates spring open on Tuesday around 3pm AEDT.
Vauban, has been labelled ‘as good a thing I’ve seen’ by rival owner Nick Williams, is rated a $4 chance by bookmakers as of Monday afternoon.
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With all the commentary and hype surrounding the horse, there’s every possibility Vauban is backed in further and could start closer to $3 as the big punters and those who like a flutter once a year finalise their bets today and tomorrow.
If Vauban does start at $3 or under, it will be the 19th instance in the race’s history that a horse has been that short in the market. Only three of those years have seen the favourite win.
Remarkably, champion horse Phar Lap in 1930 was the last horse to start at $3 or under and win the Melbourne Cup, beginning at a quote of $1.73.
The year prior, Phar Lap started $2 in the Cup but was beaten by all bar Nightmarch.
Those two years (1929, 1930) would see Phar Lap begin as the shortest-priced favourite in race history.
Archer, who claimed the first two Melbourne Cups (1861, 1862), won as a $3 favourite in the second of his victories. The only other horse to win when starting the race at $3 and under was Revenue in 1901.
EVERY CUP FAVOURITE AT $3 OR LESS
2021 – Incentivise ($2.90) 2nd
2010 – So You Think ($3) 3rd
1971 – Gay Icarus (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced
1969 – Tails (2/1 – $3) Unplaced
1956 – Redcraze (7/4 – $2.75) 2nd
1955 – Rising Fast (2/1 – $3) 2nd
1948 – Howe (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced
1940 – Beau Vite (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced
1930 – Phar Lap (8/11 – $1.73) WINNER
1929 – Phar Lap (Evens – $2) 3rd
1925 – Manfred (7/4 – $2.75) 2nd
1917 – Lanius (7/4 – $2.75) Unplaced
1912 – Duke Foote (6/4 – $2.50) Unplaced
1901 – Revenue (7/4 – $2.75) WINNER
1874 – Goldsborough (2/1 – $3) Unplaced
1869 – Circassian (2/1 – $3) Unplaced
1863 – Musidora (2/1 – $3) 2nd
1863 – Rose Of Denmark (2/1 – $3) 3rd
1862 – Archer (2/1 – $3) WINNER
So, it’s clear backing favourites isn’t necessarily the way to make a quid, and historically speaking, the fact he’s an international raider having his first start in Australia doesn’t help his case.
Since 2002, there have been 11 international horses who have started favourite in the Melbourne Cup, and none of those have finished in the top three.
Without trying to talk anyone out of Vauban, who was set for this race 18 months ago and has trained the house down since arriving in Australia, history is against him.
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