Once again the AFL Draft’s big flaw was on display, as Gold Coast landed four first-round prospects for almost nothing.
Plus amid a flurry of trades, Essendon was praised for a “genius” top-10 move.
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SUNS EXPOSE DRAFT’S GREAT FLAW AS THREE-YEAR BONUS LOOMS
One of the AFL Draft’s greatest flaws was exposed yet again on Monday night – and it could see Gold Coast cashing in until 2025… and beyond.
A perennial problem with the bidding system for father-son and Academy players is how it forces one club to become the antagonist, and bid on a rival team’s prospects so they have to match.
In an ideal world, prospects would receive a bid based on their talent. But we don’t live in an ideal world. And just like Nick Daicos sliding to No.4 a couple of years ago, allowing Collingwood to save points, Gold Coast took advantage of Jed Walter sliding to No.3 (rather than No.2) in the 2023 draft.
We don’t know exactly why North Melbourne chose not to bid on Walter at No.2. But if they were willing to bid on him at No.3, there’s absolutely no reason (in that ideal world we spoke about) why they wouldn’t have done it at No.2, since it would’ve forced Gold Coast to pay more points. They were always going to match the bid, after all.
The whisper going around rival clubs was that it was linked to a trade back on October 11, when Gold Coast sent their future end-of-first-round assistance pick to the Kangaroos in exchange for pick 18.
The suggestion is there was a wink-wink element to the deal; whether the Suns explicitly asked the Roos not to bid on Walter with their first pick, or if it was an unspoken element of the deal, we’ll never know. But it’s very similar to GWS not bidding on Nick Daicos (2021) or Will Ashcroft (2022) – coincidentally having completed trades with Collingwood and Brisbane in the months prior to those drafts.
In the lead-up to last year’s draft, where the Giants chose to take Aaron Cadman at No.1 rather than bidding on Ashcroft, their list boss Adrian Caruso told AFL Media: “Will would be a worthy No.1 pick, there’s no doubt about that, whether we call his name out or we don’t, but we’ve got to factor in a whole range of things with that pick one, whether or not we did or we don’t bid.”
Why does this matter? Well, the Suns saved a couple hundred points when the bid for Walter came at No.3 rather than No.2 – and combined with a few pre-first round trades, had more than enough points to survive a whopping four first-round bids.
They successfully landed Walter (No.3), Ethan Read (No.9), Jake Rogers (No.14) and Will Graham (No.26), all of whom went around where the experts expected – with Walter’s drop from No.2 to No.3 the biggest (given the gap in points between those two picks).
In fact the Suns still have a whopping six picks left, five of them with a points value – 51, 54, 56, 61 and 69 – giving them options heading into day two of the draft.
While they could use the picks to draft more players, it would seem more likely they’d try and trade out into the 2024 draft. Even if they don’t get a lot out of it, a future third or fourth would help them… and they’re gonna need the help.
That’s because the pipeline of Suns Academy talents has grown stronger in recent years, peaking for now with the 2023 crop, but there’s plenty to get excited about over the next two years as well.
Next year, Gold Coast should land Leo Lombard, who a few months ago was good enough to play in their VFL Grand Final triumph – at just 16 years old.
But then comes another bumper crop. While there’s a long way to go until the 2025 Draft, a whopping five Suns Academy prospects were named in the AFL’s Under-16 All-Australian side this year – Kalani White, Zeke Uwland, Dylan Petterson, Jai Murray and Beau Addinsall.
If even a few of them are draft-worthy, the Suns will need to bank points just like they did for 2023’s quartet.
And this is where the flow-on effects from North Melbourne not bidding as early as possible on Walter come into play. By saving points this year, they could turn that into 2024 draft capital – which they can then turn into 2025 draft capital, should they so choose.
Maybe the Suns just end up passing on night two, but at the very least, they’ve shown the points system was absolutely no barrier between them and landing four first-round prospects… and surely it should be a bit harder than that.
Let’s use the Ethan Read as a quick example – they got him at pick 9, only having to pay picks 34 and 38 (with pick 48 turning into pick 49 as well). On paper, that’s two late second-round picks for a top-10 selection… a trade nobody would ever do, ever.
There’s the very real chance the Kangaroos’ late bid gives the Suns the draft capital they need in 2024 and 2025 to successfully nab even more talent. If it means they pay less for their prospects, that helps them get better for a lower price than the AFL intended. In turn, that hurts the other 17 clubs.
“A lot of work has gone into this year’s draft crop, both from a football sense in developing these players since they were 13, to also a strategy perspective over the last three years, planning how we could ensure we would be able to secure all four players through the draft,” Suns national recruiting manager Kall Burns said after the first round was completed.
Of course, in the end, they easily had enough points – 857 of them, to be exact.
Let’s be clear – the Suns aren’t doing anything wrong here. This is the system at fault, not them.
If a team is going to be forced to pay as much as possible, a rival club has to become an antagonist; but that works against the antagonistic club in all other circumstances, hurting the relationship if they need to make trades (as happened with the Kangaroos and Suns, and with the Giants and Magpies/Lions).
It’s much easier for a club to just say sure, we won’t bid on your kid, because that suits them in that immediate circumstance. Why should they act on behalf of the entire league when they have their own issues to worry about first? Nobody is going to be selfless when there’s a chance to be selfish.
We’re not saying there’s an easy solution – a third-party panel determining the value of a prospect, for example, would run into its own issues of fairness – but it’s an exploit clubs with father-son and Academy ties keep using.
Demons bow out after Cats pounce | 03:16
‘HE’S DONE IT AGAIN’: DONS ‘GENIUS’ LAUDED FOR SHREWD TRADE
It wouldn’t be an AFL draft without some Adran Dodoro trade drama.
And although it wasn’t a massive, blockbuster move, the Bombers moved aggressively to ensure they picked up a power forward with a top-10 pick.
With Geelong on the clock at Monday night’s draft at Pick 10, the Bombers offered to move from their spot at Pick 11 up to the Cats’ selection, with Pick 31 the sweetener to get the deal done.
And the Cats accepted the deal, allowing Essendon to swoop on Northern Knights star Nate Caddy with the final selection of the top 10.
“You can say what you like about him, but he’s done it again Adrian Dodoro,” Fox Footy draft guru Mick Ablett told Fox Footy. “He is a genius when it comes to trade. He’s got up, he’s got his man, he’s basically swapped a pick next to each other and given up a second-rounder.
“Adrian Dodoro has done it again.”
Ablett said Caddy was a shrewd selection, considering the Bombers’ list demographic.
“It’s someone that gives them something different,” Ablett said. “Essendon have got to find a point of difference. If they’re going to take the next step with their list, they’ve got a very good midfield, they’ve got some nice talls – it’s got to be someone with a point of difference.
“Nate Caddy has got an exceptional work ethic and a desire to push through the midfield and can hit the scoreboard. The word power is what you associate with him.”
Caddy – the nephew of dual premiership Tiger Josh Caddy – is a unique goalkicker in that he has strong high-marking ability and plays with key-forward like power, dynamism and presence.
But he isn’t as tall as some of other key forwards in this year’s draft class. To make up for that, he shows ominous explosiveness when pinch-hitting at centre bounces. There were three Coates Talent League games this year where he kicked at least four goals from 20-plus disposals.
“They’re addressing their forward needs, Essendon,” Saints champion Leigh Montagna told Fox Footy.
“We know they’ve got Peter Wright as their big key forward, but now they’ve got a lot of those mid talls when you talk about Jake Stringer and Kyle Langford. They’ve got lots of options around that 191cm and 192cm mark to work with and find the best mix and combination.”
Crows crush Swans in march to prelim | 01:44
GIANTS SHOCK WITH ‘ABSOLUTE BOLTER’.. THEN GRAB SLIDER IN DOUBLE WIN
There had been whispers in the lead-up to Monday night’s draft that the Giants were planning a surprise with their first selection of the night.
Many thought that was just them being open to a trade.
But after doing a deal with the Crows, the Giants pulled off the biggest shock of the night, selecting Murray Bushrangers forward Phoenix Gothard with Pick 12 … and then still recruited the player they were most heavily linked to at their first selection in James Leake.
The Giants slid several spots down the draft order after striking a trade with Adelaide, which used the Giants’ selection to take WA star Daniel Curtin at Pick 8.
When it was the Giants’ turn to select at Pick 12, Tassie utility James Leake was still on the board.
Yet the Giants pulled off a big shock and selected Gothard, who really put himself on the radar during the national champs where he averaged one goal a game for the Allies.
Gothard was mobbed by his mates at Marvel Stadium when the Giants picked him.
“An absolute bolter,” AFL national talent ambassador Kevin Sheehan told Fox Footy.
“He invited himself down as a friend of Connor O’Sullivan and came down as his guest. He was a chance to go tonight, but more the second round. So what a great call.
“Two best mates have gone one after the other. It’s amazing outcome.”
Gothard had interest from North Melbourne and St Kilda later in the first round, while the Giants had been linked to him – but more with their second selection.
“There were certainly some clubs that really rated Phoenix Gothard highly,” Montagna told Fox Footy.
“He’s a player with talent in the front half. He can dazzle and weave and get out of trouble as well as anybody in this draft pool. He’s a player that will probably have low possessions, but maximum damage.
“He’s got some real tricks and I’m sure Adam Kingsley and the crew at the Giants have earmarked him as a player.”
When the Saints were on the clock at Pick 17, Leake was still up for grabs.
Anticipating St Kilda might draft Leake, the Giants struck a trade, swapping picks with the Saints to move ahead while also offering a future second-round selection.
“What’s interesting about the Giants’ selections is they got Gothard at 12 and were lucky to get Leake – and had to give up a future second rounder to get him at 17,” Montagna said. “You wonder whether they would’ve been able to get Gothard anyway at 17.
“But it doesn’t matter. I’m sure they’ve got the players they were after.”
Montagna said Leake was a “consistent, reliable player” who could play across any line.
“It’ll be interesting to see there the Giants think he can play, because they’re stacked in their back half with all their talent already. Do they think he’s that intercept defender type like Tom Doedee? Or do they think he can add class to their front half?”
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