UFC superstar Jon Jones is surprisingly being backed to lose his heavyweight crown, and GOAT status, in New York this Sunday — and one of Australia’s most promising UFC fighters has an answer to why.
Widely considered history’s greatest UFC fighter, Jones is looking to continue his storied Octagon run when he defends his heavyweight title against fellow American Stipe Miocic in Sunday’s UFC 309 blockbuster.
While ‘Bones’ is a heavy favourite for the stacked Madison Square Garden card, Fox Sports Australia can reveal Aussie punters have opened fight week by loading up on the upset – with more than 60 per cent of all money currently being wagered on $5.50 outsider Miocic.
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The surprise plunge comes as a host of UFC analysts and fighters have also warned against discounting Miocic, among them the likes of Michael Bisping, Chael Sonnen, Jorge Masvidal, Tom Aspinall, Gilbert Burns and Australia’s own flyweight contender Steve Erceg.
Both Sonnen and Bisping have dubbed Miocic a far tougher proposition than the bookmakers suggest, while the UFC heavyweight division’s interim champ Aspinall – who is also the headliner’s back up fighter – has declared the challenger capable of a shock KO win.
Bisping said this week that fans were “out of their minds” for suggesting Miocic has no chance, and tipped they were being swayed by the fact Miocic was stopped in his last outing by Francis Ngannou.
Erceg has also told Fox Sports Australia that he agrees with those punters backing Miocic, stressing the former world champ, while now 42, and three years removed from his last fight, is outstanding value at almost 5/1.
“I’ve been thinking about this fight and believe it’s going to be a really close,” Erceg said this week.
“Even though everyone is saying Jon Jones will destroy Stipe, I don’t see it.
“Because I just can’t see Jon taking Miocic down consistently.
“I think people are overlooking that.
“Jon Jones also isn’t known for his ridiculous knockout power, so to win he’ll have to beat Stipe through five rounds.
“And I can’t see him (Miocic) being picked apart for five rounds, either.
“When it comes to Stipe Miocic, I think most people know – or should know – that he isn’t someone to be trifled with.
“That’s why I think it’s going to be a barn burner.
“So while I’m probably still leaning towards Jon, if I was having a punt I’d go Stipe because in what I believe will be a close fight he’s great value.”
TAB spokesperson Rohan Welsh said: “The $5.50 is a big head-to-head price for any underdog, let alone someone of Miocic’s proven quality.
“And TAB punters clearly like the value in a boilover.
“Jon Jones is all class as we know
“But 62 per cent of the money is on a Miocic boilover and more big bets will flow as we close in on fight time.
“This will be one of the bouts of the year and could be a costly one for TAB if the early trend in market is correct.”
While Miocic is himself a former champion, and considered by many to be the greatest UFC heavyweight ever, his long odds come, in part, due to his age and not having fought since that 2021 Ngannou loss.
Jones, of course, has also had a lengthy absence himself, with a torn pectoral delaying a showdown that was supposed to take place between the two at this same New York venue a year ago.
Speaking on his Youtube channel, former UFC middleweight champ Bisping said: “I’m telling you right now, everyone’s overlooking Stipe Miocic, and these people are absolutely out of their minds.
“This guy is a massive underdog.
“He is being overlooked, disrespected, completely forgotten about in the heavyweight division.
“People are underestimating Stipe Miocic, and why is that?
“It’s because the last time we saw Stipe was UFC 260, when he went up against Francis Ngannou.
“We all know how that ended. It was a brutal punch, a vicious knockout.
“That’s what people remember.
“This sport is about ‘what have you done for me lately?’ and people forget everything Stipe did (before that fight).
“People forget that Stipe, on paper, is the greatest heavyweight to ever fight in the UFC’s octagon.
“He defended the belt three times, which is something nobody else has ever done.”
Elsewhere, Sonnen said of those suggesting Miocic deserved to be such long odds: “Do you believe that Jon can just go take Stipe down whenever he wants?
“If you do believe that, that’s something that Daniel Cormier couldn’t do.
“In one of (their previous) fights, there were two takedowns, and Stipe got them both.
“I’m just reminding you, do you believe that Jon can just take Stipe down?”
Then, he continued: “Do you think Stipe is the guy who will jump out of that window?
“I’m talking about the window of quitting.
“Do you think that’s going to happen to Stipe?
“If you don’t, we’re back in the stand-up realm.
“Do you think Jon Jones can knockout Stipe Miocic?
“That’s the one place where that size and power actually comes in … (and) it would move in Stipe’s favour. Am I wrong about that?”
Asked for how Miocic wins, Erceg said: “He needs to make it ugly, that’s his best path to victory.
“While Jones has the reach advantage with those abnormally long arms, I just don’t see Jon hurting him enough consistently to put him out.
“So I think Stipe will end up looking to walk him down, stick him in boxing range and then let his punches fly.”
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