AFL 2024: Clubs in premiership window, contender rankings, offence, defence, points for, points against, surprises, analysis On the Couch

Only two sides — Port Adelaide and Geelong — are sitting in the sweet spot of the premiership window after five rounds.

Sixteen of the last 18 premiers have been in the flag window — ranked top six in the AFL for offence and defence — which only the Power and Cats currently are, while every premier in the last 18 years has sat top six for defence.

GWS, though only just outside the premiership window, is alarming ranked seventh in points against, meaning, as things stand, Adam Kingsley’s side would need to buck a trend of the last 18 premiers.

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“We understand this is factored against your direct opponent. You might have had an easier draw or harder draw in the early stages. It’s going to make more sense as we go through the year,” former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley acknowledged on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.

“Already you can see Port Adelaide and Geelong in that window. We thought Port Adelaide had to improve their defensive profile — and they have in the early stages — and Geelong continue to surprise.”

Port Adelaide’s transition from having the 12th best defence to the third best would bring “great joy” to the club, according to Demons legend Garry Lyon, in the key area it needed to improve in including adding Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher.

“They were attentive of the fact they were 12th for points against last year. In this short period of time — it’s an early snapshot — them and Cats find themselves where you need to be,” Lyon said.

Next closest to the premiership window are Brisbane, Sydney, and most surprisingly, the under fire Western Bulldogs.

“The surprise for me was the Bulldogs and how close they were to that window,” triple premiership Lion Jonathan Brown noted.

“They had a big win against West Coast and got Gold Coast on a windy day in Ballarat, so very surprised they were close by because they’re the team under the most pressure.”

At the other end of the table, to no great surprise, are Hawthorn, West Coast and North Melbourne, with Richmond not far ahead.

Of the contenders, there’s concerns for Collingwood (13th ranked defence, 11th ranked offence) even the 4-1 Blues (12th ranked defence).

Though Carlton is ranked fifth offensively, history suggests it’d need to improve defensively if it’s to be a serious contender.

Brown posed whether the Blues’ shock loss to Adelaide on the weekend will “come back to the haunt them”, saying he’s “a bit concerned” about Michael Voss’ side.

It comes ahead of a tough fixture for Carlton where it faces GWS (Marvel Stadium), Geelong, Collingwood, Melbourne (all MCG) and Sydney (SCG) over the next few weeks in a testing period.

“They weren’t going as a 4-0 team and I think they got lucky on occasion,” Brown added.

“Yes, there was some good management in games. But if you actually look at their tough stretch ahead … jeez, that’s strong opposition.”

Additionally, the Blues face tough double ups against the Giants (Rounds 6 and 17), Geelong (Rounds 7 and 15), Collingwood (Rounds 8 and 21) and Port Adelaide (Rounds 12 and 20) in a challenging fixture overall.

“That’s where I think this loss (to Adelaide) will come back to haunt them. Three of the top four teams they play twice again and of course the reigning premier,” Brown added.

“You’ve got to be careful, and I’m not saying the players are getting complacent. But I just think late in the game (against Adelaide) when they were 16 points up, I’m not sure where the senior players’ mindset was.

PREMIERSHIP WINDOW RANKINGS AFTER FIVE ROUNDS

Almost all AFL premiers ranked in top six in both categories