It’s precisely the run into finals Collingwood was aiming to avoid — and there’s now a considerable hole to dig itself out of with two home-and-away games left.
Losers of four of their past five matches, the Magpies have had their defensive woes laid glaringly bare and their on-ball shortcomings spotlighted — not to mention the recent underperformance of their forward line.
But how worrying is this mini-crisis? Aided by Champion Data, Foxfooty.com.au dives into where the issues lie and the key numbers underlining the Pies’ problems ahead of a gruelling September trial, in Champion Index.
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In damning evidence to send additional worries through the Collingwood camp, over the past 10 years, the teams that have gone on to win premierships — in the six games in their run home — have gone a combined 45-14-1; a 75 per cent win rate.
On average, premiers win at 4.5 of their final six home-and-away fixtures to ready themselves for a flag tilt.
Collingwood is 1-3 in its run home with two games left before September, meaning even if it managed to finish the final stretch at 3-3, it would still be well below that critical premiership benchmark.
And based on what we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s hard to make the case that a return to form is on the cards this Saturday against ladder-leading Adelaide — despite its pristine recent record against the Crows and at Adelaide Oval.
“It is evident that you need winning form and a level of confidence going into a finals series that means your game stacks up with the best,” four-time Hawthorn premiership star Jordan Lewis told Fox Footy’s On the Couch.
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The Pies’ ability to punish opponents from intercept, clearance and half-back has notably dissipated over the course of the past five weeks.
Across the season’s first 17 rounds, Collingwood ranked second in the competition for intercept-to-score rate, fifth for clearance-to-score rate, and first for half-back-to-score rate. But in the past five weeks, it’s slumped to 12th, 13th and 11th respectively, per Champion Data.
“We spoke about, when your game is in good shape, you can really hone in on one or two specific things for the last four rounds — (but) that is a lot to work on, and that is a huge drop-off,” Lewis said of the subpar punishment numbers.
“So, I think Craig McRae would be looking at this and going ‘where do I start?’ and that becomes a real problem coming into September.”
But to comprehend these shortcomings, it must first be understood that the absence of key personnel in crucial ‘system’ positions is severely hurting the way the Pies want to play.
Electric hybrid Beau McCreery, whose pressure game is elite and who plays an important forward-connector role, has played just one game since Round 15 amid repeat hamstring setbacks.
Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill, meanwhile, has also missed six of the past seven games as he’s battled both personal issues and illness. Both absences impact the centre-forward portion of the ground for the Pies.
Meanwhile, to make matters worse at the other end, integral intercept defender Jeremy Howe was concussed last Thursday against Hawthorn in his first game back after three weeks out.
Howe’s absence, compounded by Billy Frampton’s own recent injury struggles, has forced McRae to hastily reshuffle, including against the Hawks when the ex-Demon was felled in the opening minutes.
It’s meant certain players have been forced to play out of their natural positions — with big shoes to fill — and things certainly didn’t go to plan against the Hawks.
“They do have a lot of experience, though you’ve got to have the traits. I thought they were an unbalanced 23 (against Hawthorn). And (Jeremy) Howe went off for Ned Long; it was even worse,” former Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley said on Fox Footy.
“(Tom) Mitchell is playing as a high forward, who has to run all the way back to support that winger, and all the way forward — that is the Bobby Hill role, normally, and Mitchell doesn’t have those traits.
“Later on … Jamie Elliott’s taken out of his deepest forward role to try and get that run as a high forward, because they don’t have it with Hill out, with McCreery out, Sullivan injured.
“So, they take Elliott out of a preferred role, and they ask Ned Long to play as the deepest forward. (He’s) having a conversation with Mihocek about ‘where do I go’.”
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The recent lack of continuity and cohesion has been reflected most concerningly in the bookends.
In the past five weeks, the Pies have sat 15th for score-per-inside-50 rate for, and 14th for score-per-inside-50 rate against; spotlighting their newfound issues both in attack and defence.
Further, after sitting first for points against for the majority of the season, in the past five weeks, the Pies have sat ninth for opposition scoring and eighth for opposition points from turnover.
And don’t think those issues excuse the engine room, either. Since Round 9, Collingwood has sat 17th in the AFL for clearance differential.
Buckley added of the side’s instability: “Once Long came into that team (against Hawthorn), the 22 was unbalanced. At times, you had Mitchell and Long and Pendlebury (out there) …
“I think the system was in place early but was beaten, and then when you started flipping the magnets around, you actually had players that didn’t have the traits to play that specific role.”
Dan McStay’s shift behind the ball was a move made out of necessity that didn’t pay dividends, but with Howe ruled out of the Adelaide blockbuster, McRae’s coaching staff will have another crack at the same conundrum.
Alternatives at selection include recalling Charlie Dean, who’s also had his shaky moments in the Pies’ backline, as well as the potential to bring back Mason Cox — who’s been out of the side for the past three weeks — for some more height and another focal point in attack.
“I think they wanted to play Houston high, they wanted to play Josh Daicos through the middle so that Houston could play high to try and get him back into form. The choice to play McStay back, we haven’t seen that in a game yet,” Buckley said.
“There were plenty of new things we saw in Collingwood in the second half (against Hawthorn) that I believe would explain that lack of system, and potentially the lack of fight, and the lack of connection that has been so strong with Collingwood. And they need that, because they can’t afford the ball to get on the outside.”
As Buckley notes, the Magpies were, justifiably, trying to get their dual All-Australian back in form by getting the footy in his hands. But it’s painfully evident Houston hasn’t played like the man the Pies aggressively traded for last October.
Per Champion Data, Houston has been the 174th-ranked player across the past five weeks, down from 100th throughout the first 16 rounds of the season. And he’s not the only Pie who’s been in a slump.
Up until six weeks ago, the durable Jack Crisp was the 13th-ranked player in the competition. In the six weeks since, he’s dropped to 82nd.
Breakout midfielder Ned Long has been a revelation at Olympic Park in his second year at the club, playing 21 of his 33 AFL games this season and ranking 141st for player rating across the first 16 weeks of the campaign.
But in the past six rounds, he’s sat a lowly 295th as his fit alongside veteran Tom Mitchell in McRae’s side continues to be questioned. He’s had a combined 19 possessions in his past fortnight and looked out of place once he was inserted into the action last Thursday.
Elsewhere, in another stark drop, evergreen ball-winner Steele Sidebottom has gone from the 44th-ranked player to 228th in the same period.
And Jamie Elliott, who was early in the season in Coleman Medal calculations, has gone from being the 18th-ranked player in the AFL to the 308th-ranked (!) in the past five weeks. He’s kicked four combined goals across his past four games.
Buckley says it’ll “take some soul-searching” from the coaches to revitalise and recalibrate these Pies, but in terms of tangible change on the whiteboard, it’ll revolve largely around speed, and where on the ground they deploy it.
“In the end, I think gluing them back together is going to take some soul-searching from the coaching group,” Buckley assessed.
“Because without Hill, without McCreery, they don’t have the speed to play the way that we saw them play, without that speed.
“An option, potentially, is to say that ‘we don’t need that speed through our midfield, let’s go contested (with) strong bodies through the midfield and get all our run on the outside somewhere’.
“So, Josh Daicos goes outside, maybe Nick (Daicos) goes outside. Jack Crisp goes to a running position, rather than holding up a midfield position. Bigger bodies in the midfield, and get all of your run on the outside to be able to play those roles.”
Both Hill and McCreery, promisingly, have been labelled ‘tests’ going into team selection on Thursday night. If they’re out there against the Crows, and ‘Fly’ shifts a few more of his dynamic pieces from inside to outside the contest, look out for a vastly different outfit at Adelaide Oval.
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