Just eight teams are still standing in the race for the 2024 AFL premiership. And with the pre-finals bye formalities behind us, the real stuff beckons.
For those at the top, it’s pretty clear that nothing less than an appearance on Grand Final day – or lifting the cup – will be acceptable; while others have returned to September from the wilderness, and some would make their fans proud with just a win.
In foxfooty.com.au’s Finals Pressure Gauge, we rank the team facing the most pressure (1) to the least (8) and give a September pass mark.
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1. SYDNEY SWANS
Pass mark: Win the flag
It’s flag or bust for minor premier Sydney, to be frank. For John Longmire’s side has sat in pole position for the majority of the season, so it’s been Sydney’s flag to lose.
The Swans set the tone from the outset of their campaign. Aside from a vulnerable stretch between Rounds 18-22 — which appears to have been rectified following the players’ all-in after their massive loss to Port Adelaide — looked like world-beaters.
Put simply, their best footy has been better than anyone else’s. Not that it counts for anything now.
Thus, if Longmire’s troops aren’t at least playing on the last day of September, something will have gone wrong.
Injuries seem like the likeliest obstacle in between Sydney and its sixth VFL/AFL premiership. However both Tom Papley and Justin McInerney are set to return from injury for the club’s qualifying final clash with the Giants, meaning the Swans will be at full strength.
It’s also worth noting that Longmire has a 1-3 record in grand finals, with the club’s 2012 win over Sydney the last time it saluted.
There’s therefore an added element of the Swans being due to win one for all the success they’ve had in the modern era and atone for that disastrous showing against Geelong in the 2022 decider.
The only reason it’s not an even more pressure-filled September for the Swans is their youth; they should be really good for a while. But as they found out last year, what looks like perennial flag contention can change quickly.
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2. PORT ADELAIDE
Pass mark: Make the grand final
It’s all in front of Port Adelaide to make a grand final for the first under Ken Hinkley in the veteran coach’s best opportunity yet to capture an elusive premiership.
Anything less than a grand final would be a disappointment.
Six-straight wins in the lead into finals saw the Power surge into second place despite sitting outside the top eight after Round 19.
Hinkley was sensationally booed by his own team’s fans after that Round 15 loss to Brisbane as criticism came far and wide on the 12-year Power coach.
That’s the type of pressure that’s been on Hinkley, which is why it’s so important he delivers a deep finals run. No other first-time coach has lasted even 10 full seasons without winning a flag.
From that regard, Hinkley will come under scrutiny even if Port don’t go all the way, but an appearance in the decider should be the expectation.
While it could be argued the Power were better placed to win it all during their first and second placed finishes in 2020 and 2021 respectively – seasons when no finals were played in Victoria – the pathway to glory this year feels so achievable amid a wide open finals race.
Hinkley’s side hosts Geelong, who it beat in qualifying finals in both 2020 and 2021m in this Friday night’s clash – a Cats side that still has question marks on it going into the post-season.
Win that and the Power would host a preliminary final at Adelaide Oval against either Sydney, GWS, Brisbane or Carlton.
The Power will have to do it without dual All-Australian Dan Houston following his season-ending suspension in the Showdown, but their game is in great shape including an improved defence – the area that’s long been a weak point – in the back-end of the season.
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3. BRISBANE LIONS
Pass mark: Make the grand final
This might seem harsh given Brisbane sits outside the top four, but this was a team as well placed as any of winning the flag a few short weeks ago. Heck, there was a period hen the Lions moved past Sydney into premiership favouritism.
And from a broader perspective, the Lions, like Port Adelaide, nothing to show for what’s been such a successful era under Chris Fagan.
And so there’s a greater urgency on Brisbane to win with this current crop or risk it being a wasted period of multiple top four finishes, but no silverware.
Last year was the furthest the Lions has gotten in agonisingly falling a kick short of a premiership.
You felt like a it was a highly valuable experience the Lions would’ve matured from and held it in good stead for this year. Of course, they say you have to lose one before you win one.
So not only have Brisbane ticked that box, it’s also proven it can perform at the MCG – something other non-Victorian clubs can’t claim.
It’ll be a long road to just get to the grand final though. After this week’s home clash with a Carlton side set to be boosted by several stars, Brisbane would hit the road to face either GWS or Sydney followed by an away preliminary final against Port Adelaide or Geelong.
It’s proof that even with the pre-finals bye, the top four still holds tremendous value.
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4. GWS GIANTS
Pass mark: Make a preliminary final
A late-season charge saw the Giants sneak into the top four, setting up an epic qualifying final showdown with cross-town rival Sydney.
The Giants will need to defy history to even just make the grand final. For no team since 2000 has won the flag from fourth position including just three grand final appearances.
Adam Kingsley’s side won’t fear anyone in the finals and should rightfully travel to the SCG full of confidence of coming away with a win. That’s just the type of club GWS is.
Of course this is a Giants side that got within a kick of a grand final last year – a year it charged from outside the top eight in a deep finals run – and looked one of the flag frontrunners earlier this season.
So while they’re the underdogs in the opening week of finals – and there’s not necessarily pressure on the club this September in Kingley’s second season at the helm – a straight-sets finals exit would be a step backwards.
A preliminary final is the pass mark even though the Giants would have their sights set on bigger goals and qualifying for their second grand final in club history. And performing better on that stage than their 2019 efforts against Richmond.
The Giants, despite having a seven-game winning streak from Rounds 17 to 24, don’t seem to have the same momentum as last year, even if that can change quickly.
But the current flag race feels more open and a legit opportunity for an outsider to pinch one.
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5. CARLTON
Pass mark: Win a final
Why not Carlton? That’s what it’ll be thinking.
For if you took away the seedings, the Blues would be considered as good a chance as any finalist given the starpower on their list. After all, this is a period the club was supposed to be very much contending for flags after being starved of success for some time.
It makes Carlton a tricky team to assess given it has the clearest finals exit of any of the top eight teams ahead of a daunting trip to the Gabba.
And the Blues only just stuck into the finals in the end amid underwhelming form late in the season – winning just one of their last five games amid widespread injuries.
From that regard, it goes into the finals in the worst form of any of the eight sides. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t pressure on Michael Voss’ team.
Plus, the Blues will line up vastly differently to how they did in Round 24, set to regain a host of stars including Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow as well as a potential fairytale return from a third ACL injury for Sam Docherty.
The last time Carlton went to the Gabba was in that Opening Round win over the Lions when Docherty was struck down, so it’ll have belief it can get the job done against a Brisbane side that’s stuttered late in the campaign.
While the Blues don’t have nearly the same momentum as last year, they showed how the new finals format has made the double chance less of an advantage.
A loss to Brisbane this weekend and 2024 will feel like a wasted year for Carlton.
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6. GEELONG
Pass mark: Win a final
The Cats could go out in straight sets and you feel like there wouldn’t be massive blowback.
They’ve almost already hit their pass mark after exceeding expectations in 2024, with many believing the club had reached the end of an era after climbing the mountain in 2022 with a veteran list and was set for some pain in the years that followed.
But not this Geelong team – it doesn’t know how to not be successful under the wily Chris Scott’s lead.
While the Cats face the tough task against Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in week one, finishing in the top four and thus getting the double chance naturally increases a level of expectation.
As mentioned, Scott already guided the Cats to a flag just two years ago in a crucial monkey off the back after a period of deep finals runs with nothing to show for it.
In some ways, you trust this Geelong team more than some of the other contenders in a wide open flag race given we’ve seen it win big finals before.
The most likely outcome is the Cats lose to Port (though you wouldn’t put it past them) then face either the Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn in a cutthroat semi-final at the MCG.
Even if the winner of the Dogs-Hawks match would continue a scintillating run from one of those red-hot sides, the pass mark for Geelong would be to win that match.
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7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Pass mark: Win a final
After being made to sit in the hot seat in the early part of the season, Luke Beveridge’s stellar guidance of this side must be commended. Beveridge had to steer this club to September, otherwise his job was likely in peril — and he did.
Sitting with three wins and five losses at the end of Round 8, the Bulldogs’ finals chances were looking as bleak as ever – with a seven-point loss to the then-17th-placed Hawthorn a lowlight.
Fittingly though, they now match up against them again to keep their season alive; and they’re arguably the side best placed to beat a rampant Hawks outfit this September given their fleeting similarities in both game play and raw talent.
The obvious comparison here is that Beveridge has been here before in his infamous 2016 premiership year.
Without the double chance and once without a hope of being a flag favourite, the Dogs have scraped themselves back into contention in true style.
Emerging star Sam Darcy has added a dimension to The Kennel’s forward line, but it’s impossible to look past Marcus Bontempelli as the number one guy that can get them their second piece of silverware in eight years.
If they can get past Sam Mitchell’s brown and gold, they’ll either travel to the Adelaide Oval or face the Cats at the MCG – with the opposition far more likely to fear the matchup than the Dogs.
They’ve come from so far back to make it this finals series, but if we’re holding firm on the most part from our pre-season expectations of them, a win this Saturday would void them of any criticism that this year has been a failed one.
A loss would blur the lines, but nonetheless Beveridge will certainly be at the helm again in 2025 – despite early season speculation he may not be.
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8. HAWTHORN
Pass mark: Already passed (but if we must set one, win a final)
One of the most dangerous prospects about Hawthorn for its opponents — aside from its tantalising and destructive transition ball movement — is that there are no expectations on this team.
The Hawks came from the clouds to storm into September, with absolutely nobody expecting such an ascent from their lowly 0-5 start to the season.
It’s clear to everyone that they have well and truly surpassed any expectations placed on them before the start of the 2024 season, so we certainly can’t change that since they’ve found their way into the eight.
But, that’s not to say that they won’t be disappointed should they fall short at the first finals hurdle this Friday night.
Their forward line of Jack Ginnivan, Dylan Moore, veteran Jack Gunston and the slowly rising Nick Watson have proven themselves a deadly force to be reckoned with; particularly the former three given Watson’s inexperience.
Will Day is certainly a big out for the Hawks’ midfield this weekend, but again – they’ve proven time and time again they can defy expectations, so what’s one injury to them?
It’s a shame the Hawks and Dogs are placed against each other in the opening weekend of finals, but in reality it’s hardly a (truly) failed season for either should they bow out first up.
Should they win, they’ll face one of Geelong (MCG) or Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval) in the semi’s – and could well go in as favourites for either match depending on how convincing they would look in an elimination final win.
Outside of Day, they have a very healthy looking injury list – and are far more primed than the likes of Carlton or Brisbane in the facet that can often matter so much come September.
‘Hok-ball’ has taken the AFL community by storm since May this year, and whether they progress or bow out at the MCG this weekend, it’s been one massive tick for Sam Mitchell and his men this season.
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