AFL history says three teams are in 2024’s premiership window. None of them made the top four

Three AFL teams sit inside the history-backed ‘premiership window’ entering the 2024 finals series – and none of them are inside the top four.

It’s a simple equation: the last 19 premiers have all been in the top six for points allowed, while 17 of 19 have also been in the top six for points scored. The ‘window’ means sitting in the top six for both.

And after 25 rounds of footy the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane and Hawthorn are the three teams who tick the boxes for premiership contention.

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The problem, of course, is that at least one of those teams won’t even make the semi-finals given they all play elimination finals this coming weekend.

“For the first time for the year, Hawthorn – that’s right! The cameramen have fallen over – have gone into the premiership window,” Garry Lyon explained on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.

“And for the first time for the year, the Sydney Swans have dropped out, ever so slightly.

“Those in the window are all outside the top four … it’s a fair test of the window this year, boys.”

The only other team who can win the flag, according to this stat, is Port Adelaide who sit third for points allowed (but eighth for points scored).

Thanks to their massive loss to the Power, and a general form slide over the last third of the season, minor premiers Sydney aren’t in the premiership window. (It is worth noting however they sit seventh for points allowed, having conceded just one extra goal than sixth-placed Hawthorn.)

GWS sits outside the window both defensively and offensively, which is fitting given they have the worst percentage in the top eight.

Geelong and Carlton have good enough offences but their defences have been well below the mark all year. Both sides have had six games where they conceded 100 points or more.

All of this means history will be made regardless of the premiership result. Either:

– the Bulldogs, Brisbane or Hawthorn will make it 18 out of 20 premiers coming from inside the premiership window, and be the second team to win the flag from outside the top four this century;

– Port Adelaide will make it 20 of the last 20 premiers having a top-six defence, finally breaking through for a flag under Ken Hinkley;

– Or if Sydney, GWS, Geelong or Carlton wins the flag, the premiership window stat will finally be beaten.

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Qualifying teams

Western Bulldogs (1st for points allowed, 2nd for points scored)

Brisbane Lions (2nd for points allowed, 5th for points scored)

Hawthorn (6th for points allowed, 6th for points scored)

Qualifying via defence only

Port Adelaide (3rd for points allowed, 8th for points scored)

Not qualifying

Sydney Swans (7th for points allowed, 1st for points scored)

GWS Giants (9th for points allowed, 7th for points scored)

Geelong (11th for points allowed, 3rd for points scored)

Carlton (14th for points allowed, 4th for points scored)