Aus Open draw LIVE: Demon’s path to glory after 18-year Aussie first as dark horses loom

Sure, the tennis itself is pretty exciting, but there might be nothing more important to a grand slam than the draw itself.

The 128 men and women aiming for glory at Melbourne Park will learn their fate today, with all local eyes on the Aussies – and our highest-ranked man in almost 20 years.

Scroll down for live updates from the 2024 Australian Open men’s and women’s singles draws, from 1pm AEDT, plus a full preview and explainer.

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HOW DOES A GRAND SLAM SINGLES DRAW WORK?

The top 32 players in each singles draw are seeded, and placed throughout the bracket to ensure they cannot play each other until at least the third round (round of 32).

The draw ceremony begins with the qualifiers, wildcards and non-seeded main draw entrants being randomly placed throughout the draw, filling all spots which will not feature seeds.

The No.1 and No.2 seeds are placed on opposite sides of the draw, in the top left and bottom right of the bracket respectively.

The No.3 and No.4 seeds are randomly drawn into the other corners, to face the No.1 and/or No.2 in the semi-finals.

Then the No.5-8 seeds are placed, one in each quarter, to face a No.1-4 seed in the quarter-finals.

Then the No.9-12 seeds are placed, one in each section which features a No.5-8 seed, to face them in the fourth round.

Then the No.13-16 seeds are placed, one in each section which features a No.1-4 seed, to face them in the fourth round.

Then the No.17-24 seeds are placed, one in each mini-section which features a No.9-16 seed, to face them in the third round.

Finally the No.25-32 seeds are placed, one in each mini-section which features a No.1-8 seed, to face them in the third round.

You can watch the Australian Open draw from 1pm AEDT today via YouTube, and follow updates with analysis on Foxsports.com.au.

SO HOW DOES THIS WORK FOR, SAY, ALEX DE MINAUR?

Ah, you’re Australian. Allow us to explain the possibilities for the lone local seed at the 2024 Australian Open.

Alex de Minaur cracked the ATP top 10 for the first time with his brilliant United Cup campaign, which included wins over world No.1 Novak Djokovic, No.6 Alex Zverev and No.12 Taylor Fritz – plus a warm-up win over No.2 Carlos Alcaraz last night.

He was already set to be in the 9-12 set of seeds discussed above, but becoming the first Aussie man in the top 10 since Lleyton Hewitt in 2006 secured his position.

This gives de Minaur his best possible chance of making a second grand slam quarter-final, following his 2020 US Open berth, because he will not have to face a higher-ranked player until the fourth round – and even then it’ll be someone in the No.5-8 range, not one of the four favourites.

Obviously upsets can blow all of this up, but here are the highest-ranked players de Minaur can face in his run through the tournament.

Highest-ranked player Alex de Minaur can play in each round of Australian Open

Round 1: Unseeded player

Round 2: Unseeded player

Round 3: Seed 17 to 24 – One of Frances Tiafoe, Nicolas Jarry, Cam Norrie, Adrian Mannarino, Ugo Humbert, Francisco Cerundolo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Jan Lennard Struff

Round 4: Seed 5 to 8 – One of Andrey Rublev, Alex Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas or Holger Rune

Quarter-Final: Seed 1 to 4 – One of Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev or Jannik Sinner

Semi-Final: Seed 1 to 4 (but cannot be Djokovic if he played Alcaraz in QF, or vice versa)

Final: Seed 1 to 4

Unless an upset makes de Minaur the higher-ranked player (and the favourite), that fourth-round match will be tough but winnable.

Well, unless it’s against Tsitsipas, who he matches up poorly against – losing 12 of 13 meetings including all 10 on hard courts (de Minaur’s only win coming at a Challenger on grass in 2017). But he just beat Zverev, and is 3-2 against Rublev, and 2-2 against Rune.

So avoid the Greek star and de Minaur will have every hope of making the last eight… and then you have to consider the possibility he has actually made the leap from his previous level, ‘good but not great, and just not dangerous enough against the top contenders’.

The win over Djokovic wasn’t at a slam; it wasn’t even at a Masters 1000. It’s hard to know exactly how motivated Djokovic was.

But it was still a win over a guy who hadn’t lost in Australia in almost six years, and you can’t take that away from de Minaur, nor can you ignore how well he has been playing – he’s never going to have elite power given his size, but he has added some, and his existing speed and craft make him a tricky opponent for almost everyone on tour.

And remember, in a tournament this size, upsets are common. Last year the No.18 seed (Karen Khachanov) and an unseeded player (Tommy Paul) made the semi-finals; a qualifier, Aslan Karatsev, made the last four in 2021.

So the quarter-finals are an entirely realistic goal for de Minaur, and since Lleyton Hewitt’s run to the final in 2005, only one Aussie man (Nick Kyrgios in 2015, when he got to avoid Roger Federer thanks to a famous Andreas Seppi upset) has made it that far at Melbourne Park.

We’ll be watching closely to see where the Sydneysider falls in the draw. With Rafael Nadal injured and out, there aren’t too many dangerous names who can seriously outplay their ranking – Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic are in on protected rankings, and you’d rather avoid the likes of Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka – so it would take some proper bad luck to cop a horror early run in the tournament.

Knock on wood.

WHAT ELSE SHOULD I LOOK OUT FOR IN THE MEN’S SINGLES DRAW?

The aforementioned big names who don’t have the protection of a seeding – Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic. Marin Cilic, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka – are certainly worth tracking since they could create some big early-round match-ups.

But most experts believe the singles title is a three-man race, which means one of the trio is about to get a major headstart.

Novak Djokovic, the perennial Melbourne Park favourite, and his Wimbledon conqueror Carlos Alcaraz will be on opposite sides of the draw as the top two seeds. But then all eyes will be on Italy’s Jannik Sinner, who has joined Alcaraz in rising from a member of the next-gen who’ll be good some day… to a member of the next-gen who’s good now.

Since his five-set loss in the fourth round of the US Open against Alex Zverev, Sinner has lost just two of the 22 matches he actually completed (since de Minaur had a walkover over him in Paris), winning titles in Beijing and Vienna.

That streak has included two wins over Djokovic, in the ATP Finals group stage (before a loss to the Serbian in the final) and the Davis Cup semis, plus three wins over world No.3 Daniil Medvedev, and defeats of Alcaraz and de Minaur, plus world No.5 Andrey Rublev, world No.7 Stefanos Tsitsipas, world No.8 Holger Rune and world No.13 Grigor Dimitrov.

At just 22 years old, and with quarter-final appearances at every slam plus a semi-final berth at Wimbledon last year, it appears inevitable Sinner will be the next player to break through for a first slam crown; it’s just a matter of when.

So, while we’re not taking anything away from No.3 seed Medvedev, he has lost six of his last 13 matches… and Sinner hasn’t.

Djokovic and Alcaraz would prefer to be on Medvedev’s side of the draw; the former is the Australian Open favourite, but Djokovic’s odds will lengthen if he’s going to have to beat both Sinner and Alcaraz to win the tournament, instead of just one of them.

WHAT ABOUT ON THE WOMEN’S SIDE?

Two things will be certain going into most grand slams in 2024 – Iga Swiatek will be the women’s favourite, and it’ll be impossible to tip her with confidence.

While the world No.1 and renowned baker has won 20 of her last 22 matches, knocking off five of the women ranked between 2nd and 7th in the world in the process, hard and grass grand slams are simply too open in the current women’s game.

Just look at Swiatek’s results last year; a fourth-round exit at Melbourne Park (to eventual runner-up Elena Rybakina), a quarter-final exit at Wimbledon (to Elina Svitolina) and a fourth-round exit at the US Open (to Jelena Ostapenko), plus the somewhat inevitable French Open title.

Across the course of the season she was dominant, especially at the WTA Finals where she didn’t drop a set – against the absolute best on tour, mind you – and in fact only lost more than three games in a set twice. But there’s always enough talent for someone to stop her over the two weeks of a slam.

The top four seeds are fairly reflective of the four biggest threats, with the aforementioned Rybakina, US Open champ Coco Gauff and reigning Aussie champ Aryna Sabalenka all big chances of making the semis at least. There’s no quarter of the draw you want to be in or out of.

But there are lower-ranked players who you’d love to dodge.

There’s 21-year-old Zheng Qinwen, China’s next great hope, who won her first two WTA titles last year and made the US Open quarter-finals thanks to an upset over 2022 finalist Ons Jabeur, on route to a career-best world No.13 ranking.

That rise has really paid off for her, as thanks to Karolina Muchova’s absence, Zheng luckily sneaks into the No.12 seed spot – so, like de Minaur, she’ll be lined up to face one of the No.5-8 seeds in the fourth round instead of one of the No.1-4 seeds. A quarter-final is well and truly on the cards for the woman who Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings suggest is the most in-form hard-court player on tour outside of the top five.

Speaking of luck, former US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez earned a seed (No.32) thanks to four women ranked higher than her not attending the event; and it should give a woman who showed some much-improved form over the back half of 2023 a solid chance to impress.

The Canadian hasn’t gone past the second round of a hard-court major since her loss to Emma Raducanu in Flushing Meadows, but she has won 13 of her past 15 matches (all on hard) and challenged No.8 seed Maria Sakkari in the United Cup.

She’ll be drawn to face a top-eight seed in the third round, and while she’d be the underdog, Fernandez is a more dangerous opponent than her ranking suggests.

Outside of the seeds, few will want to draw uber-impressive 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who made a run to the fourth round of Wimbledon as a qualifier last year, and has hard-court wins over No.9 seed Barbora Krejcikova and No.13 seed Liudmila Samsonova in the last three months.

Another teenager, Czech Linda Noskova, beat Andreeva in the quarter-finals in Brisbane earlier this month, also downing No.22 seed Sorana Cirstea earlier in the tournament. Last year she recorded three wins over top-10 opponents, all on hard courts, showing her immense potential.

AUSTRALIANS IN THE MAIN DRAW