‘Backed into a corner’: Eagles’ big trade gamble explained — as bold 12-month Swan raid looms

Only hours after West Coast split its Pick 3 with Carlton amid a mega three-club trade to acquire Liam Baker, the risk and reward of the deal caught the eye of pundits and Eagles fans alike.

The Western Australian side’s initial plans to trade Pick 14 in this year’s draft (via Hawthorn in a now non-trade with Hawthorn for Tom Barrass) went up in flames last Friday, and have forced the Eagles to get creative at the trade table to help land the two-time premiership Tiger.

But behind all the trading of players, draft picks and future capital, could lie a plan that would help swoop on a Sydney superstar with heavy ties to their state.

Watch the Trading Day Deadline Special live on Fox Footy from 7pm AEDT on Wednesday October 16. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >

Speaking on the Fox Footy Podcast, journalist Max Laughton firmly believes that the Eagles were well within their rights to work themselves down this year’s draft pecking order for Baker’s services – as well as that of former Blue Matt Owies and Pick 12.

“I genuinely don’t get why this is such a big fuss; I think it’s just people not understanding the equivalence between Pick 3 and Pick 12 – it’s not a huge slide,” Laughton said.

“I think you are splitting that pick over two drafts; which you can either take next year if the pick is tasty enough, or you can trade it out. There’s a certain Sydney midfielder that might want to come back to WA, and you need to build assets for Chad Warner.”

Fox Footy Podcast host and fellow journalist Ben Waterworth was quick to flag the risk of the Eagles putting all of their eggs in one uncertain basket however, given how Warner’s current ties to either West Coast and Fremantle are currently built on mostly speculation.

“That’s a risk though – 12 months ago, we thought Logan McDonald at this time might want to come back to Fremantle (and) he eventually re-signed with Sydney,” Waterworth replied.

And having spoken to several talent scouts earlier today, the draft expert revealed that there was a varying levels of surprise at West Coast’s splitting of Pick 3.

“I asked four scouts today for their opinion on the Eagles call. One said ‘bit surprised, but it’s all in the eye of the beholder – sounds like they got backed into a corner,” Waterworth continued.

“Second one said: ‘I don’t think the Eagles would be happy, but they committed to Baker, and had little choice after the Hawks deal fell through. Bold call but they’ll take the heat for now.’

Scout C (said): ‘Lots of moving parts with Owies and Baker, but Pick 3 is a big pick to give away in any draft. If they load up with future picks though, it could ease the rumblings.’

“Scout D said: ‘Wait until the end of the trade period to judge.”

THREE-WAY TRADE FOR LIAM BAKER

WEST COAST RECEIVED: Liam Baker, Matt Owies, Picks 12 & 73
CARLTON RECEIVED: Picks 3, 63 & 68
RICHMOND RECEIVED: Pick 14

Having taken Harley Reid with Pick 1 in the 2023 AFL Draft, the Eagles have been to thee very top of the draft pool in recent times – also holding Pick 9 in 2022 (used on Reuben Ginbey).

Hawthorn legend Dermott Brereton was of the belief that West Coast will no doubt get their hands on a good player with their newly-acquired Pick 12, but that history may suggest it’s harder to “build a club” around them.

“Let’s just say that the equivalent of that (2001) draft – if you’re outside the first three, you’ve probably got a good player, but not an all-time great,” Brereton explained.

“If you’re inside pick 3, you’re a chance to not only get a good player, but a chance to not only get a good player; you’re a chance to get an all-time great who you can build a club around. That’s what I reckon the Eagles supporters will be disappointed about.

“They probably should’ve taken Hawthorn’s (pick) 14 – when that goes in and out, it turns into Barrass for Baker … (and) you keep Pick 3, and a chance at one of the all-time greats.”

A potential deal between the Hawks and West Coast for wantaway star defender Tom Barrass has gone down to the final day of this year’s trade period; and as previously highlighted, both directly and indirectly the reason for the Eagles’ move to split Pick 3.

Waterworth believes that the Blues will now target the highly touted Finn O’Sullivan with Pick 3, who has drawn comparisons with Bulldogs superstar Marcus Bontempelli for his balanced inside and outside game.

“I get your point Maxy – but if you disregard AFL history and judge this draft crop purely on what we’ve seen over recent years, I think there’s a difference (between pick 3 and 12) for mine.” Waterworth added.

“Pick 3 and 12 – it’s probably 50/50 (maybe) leaning Pick 3’s way – over the last decade – which spot gets you a better player,” Laughton finished by saying.

“It’s a draft where no one else is really looking to trade up – that says to me, that the top end isn’t the star difference between (pick) 3 and 12 that West Coast would be fearing.”