Nine doesn’t go into eight.
It’s been one of the closest roads to the AFL finals we’ve ever seen in a race of nine teams. And it all comes down to Round 24.
A mouth-watering clash between the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle at Marvel Stadium on Sunday will decide who finishes eighth and who will miss, barring a Giants catastrophe.
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SEE ALSO: Every finals scenario explained — Magpies, Suns in crucial games for top-four hopes
Fox Footy’s Sunday Ticket will also feature an epic clash between Brisbane and Hawthorn at the Gabba that will dictate the top four.
Assuming there’s no major upsets, the Lions-Hawks clash is one of three games that will decide the make-up of the top four in a race between Hawthorn, Collingwood and Gold Coast.
With insights from Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley, foxfooty.com.au breaks down the four matches set to decide the top eight.
‘We could’ve given the season away’ | 14:57
COLLINGWOOD v MELBOURNE
Friday August 22, 7.10pm at the MCG
How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6.30pm on Channel 504, hosted by Garry Lyon, Nathan Buckley & Jordan Lewis, with commentary from Anthony Hudson, Gerard Whateley, Jason Dunstall, Brad Johnson, Eddie Betts & Jon Ralph.
The Magpies are somehow fighting for their spot in the top four, despite being the ladder leaders for the majority of this season.
Craig McRae’s side has suddenly lost five of its past six games to sit just percentage inside the top four as their flag hopes have faded. And they might need to win big against Melbourne, who will play its third and final game under interim coach Troy Chaplin, for Collingwood to clinch the double chance.
Jeremy Howe returns to bolster the Magpies’ defence, but Bobby Hill remains out.
Collingwood did get its game moving back in the right direction against Adelaide on the road including dominating the inside 50 battle 71-37 but failing to maximise those entries.
In many ways it didn’t matter how the Pies played, they just needed to bank the four points. Instead, they didn’t get the win but put in a strong performance that would help build belief again for a side that was low on confidence.
Buckley said Collingwood just needs to tidy up its forward 50 connection, but should otherwise be feeling better about itself.
“They’d be encouraged by their performance against a team sitting on top of the ladder,” he said.
“All going to plan there’s a very real possibility they’ll head over there again in two weeks.
“Getting that double chance is obviously what you’re looking for. Collingwood’s best outcome is to beat Melbourne, get into a qualifying final and back themselves and win that one. Then you’re back in the hunt.
“They’re not far away, definitely not as far away as everyone thinks.”
Buckley thinks McRae’s troops are capable of winning the flag from outside the top four. However Buckley noted their lack of momentum made it a harder task, compared to other teams in the bottom half of the top eight in better nick.
“Anyone can (win the flag from outside the top four). But I think you want to be going in with a bit more momentum,” he said.
“The Pies are going to have to manufacture it in some shape or form. They’ve dropped five of six games and aren’t going in with huge momentum, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have confidence and belief.
“The double chance is probably more valuable to a side like Collingwood that’s probably trying to kickstart themselves again late in the year, compared to a side coming in with mass momentum. Like Hawthorn, even the Bulldogs and maybe even the Giants.”
PORT ADELAIDE v GOLD COAST SUNS
Friday August 22, 8.10pm at Adelaide Oval
How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6.30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Dwayne Russell, Jonathan Brown, Mark Ricciuto, Cameron Mooney, Ben Dixon & Jon Ralph.
How weary should the Suns be of a souped-up opponent won emotion in front of a raucous fan base?
Gold Coast has everything to play for in Round 24 with a game against Essendon next Wednesday night to follow.
The equation is simple for the Suns, who were shown up by GWS last week. Win one and Gold Coast is guaranteed to play finals for the first time in club history. Win both and they’re a good chance to make top four.
Given how injury depleted the Bombers are, you could almost pencil in that win for the Suns in a game they could get a nice percentage booster.
But Friday night’s trip to Adelaide Oval to face the Power in Ken Hinkley and Travis Boak’s farewell match presents a tougher task, at least on paper, despite Port missing some key soldiers.
Buckley, whose Magpies produced an inspiring win over ladder leaders Melbourne against the odds in his farewell match in 2021, thinks the connection Hinkley and Boak have to the rest of the club will show on Friday night.
“I think endings in all their forms, you get a chance to reflect on relationships, the journeys, the ups, the downs, everything in between,” he said.
“The finality of that for Ken’s tenure and Travis’ career makes it a great week. It seems to me from the outside they’re revered figures internally and have really strong connections with the club, playing group and staff.
“That carries an emotion with it and you definitely do want to help those people go out on a high and with a bang. The emotion is one thing, but then you’ve still got to have the ability to follow through on it.”
However Buckley pointed out that the drawn-out nature of Hinkley’s departure from the Power made it “different circumstances” to other farewell games.
“This has been a slow burn and a grind. You have to say it’s been a painful watch and it must have been a painful existence, in some senses. And Ken has said as much recently.
“If Ken is feeling that, there’s no doubt there’s elements of the club feeling that as well. He’s probably reflecting them as much as his own thoughts,” he said.
“There’s a very real possibility it goes the other way and they’re thinking: ‘Just get us to the finish line’. They might be exhausted and might’ve given everything they’ve got.
“I don’t really see it like that classical send-off match. The fact it’s been a slow burn, it potentially takes away some of the that emotional response. Because the response has already taken place for six months.
“If there was something to give, they would’ve given it at different times for Ken. This is very different circumstances, I don’t think this happens that often.”
BRISBANE LIONS v HAWTHORN
Sunday August 24, 7.20pm at the Gabba
How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Matt Hill, Mark Howard, Jonathan Brown, Nathan Buckley, Alastair Lynch & David Zita.
Not many people are talking about it. But Hawthorn is still a chance to make top four.
The Hawks have looked like a different team over the last fortnight in big wins over Melbourne (36 points) and Collingwood (64 points). Heck, even the week before that, Sam Mitchell’s side gave the Crows everything they had at Adelaide Oval.
Hawthorn has won four of its last five games to enter September as one of the form teams of the competition, despite the absences of Will Day and Josh Weddle.
But they meet reigning premier Brisbane, who’s coming off a dominant 57-point win over Fremantle last week and a 27-point victory over Collingwood a fortnight ago.
The Lions, however, are losing gun players at the wrong time of the year, with Lachie Neale, Eric Hipwood and Jarrod Berry getting struck down in recent weeks.
And Brisbane bizarrely has a better record on the road in 2025 (9-1-2) than at the Gabba (6-4) as it prepares to welcome a side chock-full of confidence.
“When Hawthorn is at their best, they look the most confident team with ball in hand and tackle and pressure really well. They look like they did at the end of last year,” Buckley said.
“The difference isn’t so much their offence or defence, it’s basically what happens in and around the contest and how confident they are with ball in hand.
“Jai Newcombe knows he can get out of any situation at any time. Not unlike a Dane Swan, he has 100 ways to get out of a situation or scenario and his teammates know that. And their runners take the game on and run and carry and not be concerned by pressure that may or may not come.
“Playing against a team with that sort of confidence in the ball carrier is bloody hard to beat. They’re imperious and so confident with what they’re doing.
“The irony is when Brisbane has been at their best, their pressure has been really good. And when they’ve been beaten, they haven’t been able to put that heat on the opposition.
“And more often than not, when they’ve brought the heat it’s been away from home. Last time they were at the Gabba, they allowed Sydney to run through them.
“Brisbane would be aware of that and very clear about their pressure on Hawthorn — both inside and that first wave outside with run and carry — that’s going to decide the game.”
Buckley said Hawthorn “legitimately has a top four chance” and “will be chasing it”.
“I’d give the Hawks a really good chance, but they are playing a side whose best is as good as any in the comp. That makes it pretty fascinating.
“‘Jordy’ (Jordan Lewis) was talking on On the Couch about that last 90 seconds against Melbourne. The three goals Melbourne kicked cost Hawthorn 1.5 per cent. They’ll be kicking themselves if that’s the difference!”
WESTERN BULLDOGS v FREMANTLE
Sunday August 24, 3.15pm at Marvel Stadium
How to watch on Fox Footy: From 3pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Anthony Hudson, Gerard Whateley, Garry Lyon, Jordan Lewis, Sarah Jones & David Zita.
The stage is set for a blockbuster do-or-die, mini elimination final between the Dogs and Dockers. Who needs a wildcard round after all?
If Fremantle loses, the club would be historically unlucky. For no team has ever missed the finals with 15 wins.
But spare a thought for the Dogs too given they have the third-best percentage (140.3) in the league behind only (Adelaide 141) and Geelong (140.7).
The Dockers, who are set to regain Hayden Young, bottled a chance to lock in their September spot in a poor showing at home against Brisbane last week in something of a “qualifying final,” according to Buckley.
It could be a case of history repeating itself for the wrong reasons after Freo dropped its last four games last year to tumble out of the top eight.
But Justin Longmuir’s side’s form still stacks up against anyone, with eight wins from 10 games since its mid-season bye, despite going into this game under more pressure from the footy world.
Meanwhile the Dogs have won four in a row including big victories over West Coast (94 points), GWS (88 points) and Essendon (93 points) — all at Marvel Stadium — where Luke Beveridge’s side is 10-2 this season.
“When you go into an elimination final, you’re not thinking about worst-case scenario. Fremantle will just be thinking about playing four quarters of footy against a good opponent,” Buckley said.
“Having said that, they probably said that last week and came out with a yelp. Last week was a qualifying final and they did not fire a shot, they did not give themselves a chance. You’ve got to give Brisbane some credit with that.
“What does a beaten qualifying finalist look like when they go into a semi-final? Quite often we say the team that wins the elimination finals are favourites going into a semi-final. And the team that loses a qualifying final looks a bit vulnerable.
“That’s Fremantle this week. Now they’re coming up against a team that’s been playing elimination finals for the last five weeks.
“I still favour the Dogs, but Fremantle has got a game that can worry the Dogs. Fremantle just has to get back to work. Whatever’s happened throughout the season and last year, none of it’s relevant.
“In the end, if Freo misses it’ll be because they haven’t taken their chances.”
Buckley said “ninth wasn’t going to happen by accident” and was always going to come down to “the team that didn’t take its chances.”
In fact, it might well be the best ninth-placed side ever.
“The parameters have been really well set. You know you needed to have an outlier season to get in the top eight. Fifteen wins has you sitting seventh at the moment,” Buckley added.
“But this game is all comparative. You can only beat the opposition you meet on that weekend, sometimes they’ll be in good form and sometimes they’ll be in bad form. That all comes out in the wash.
“Ultimately the ladder is a snapshot of the entirety of the season and all these little moments you either stepped up or stepped down.
“Both of these teams could play four quarters of good footy but be beaten on the day. That’s what happens at the pointy end.”
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