A month into the 2025 season and the majority of teams in the competition are still proving hard to figure out.
While the Eels being parked on the bottom of the table may not be all too surprising, it’s hard to imagine many had the Bulldogs sitting first after four rounds.
The Storm looked to be the premiership favourites before a shock loss to the Dragons last weekend while the four-peat Panthers have lost three straight and languish in the unfamiliar position of 13th.
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With four rounds in the books, we’ve provided a very early verdict on each team — spelling out why they may be the real deal and a premiership threat, and why they aren’t.
Read on for ‘Real Deal or Not’ below! (Order is in ladder position as of the start of Round 5)
1. Bulldogs
Why they’re the real deal: The only undefeated team after four rounds of the competition. Even without Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau, they still enjoyed wins over the Eels and Sharks in their last two games.
Why they’re not: In 2024, Canterbury went on a five-game winning streak between rounds 21 and 25, and it seemed they were on track for a run deep into the finals. But the Bulldogs then lost three games in a row, including their week one elimination final against Manly, to crash out of the competition. While it already seems like the Dogs will be thereabouts at season’s end, will they get the late-season jitters again?
2. Sea Eagles
Why they’re the real deal: After four rounds of the season, Manly boast the best attack in the competition, scoring 124 points in their first four games. In Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, Manly have two of the best players in the competition up their sleeve.
Why they’re not: While Cherry-Evans has confirmed he won’t be at Manly next season, the ongoing speculation around his future threatens to derail their season. Trbojevic is due to return from a knee injury in round nine, but with their superstar fullback already sidelined in 2025, who knows how much of the season he will play.
3. Broncos
Why they’re the real deal: With the arrival of Ben Hunt, the Broncos look a lot sharper in attack. Brisbane are the second best attacking team in 2025, with 118 points from the first four rounds. The Broncos have improved under new coach Michael Maguire after finishing 12th last season.
Why they’re not: While the Broncos have won three of their first four games, the form of fullback Reece Walsh will be a real concern for Brisbane. Walsh has made 11 handling errors in the first four games, which is the most in the competition. If the Broncos are to challenge for the title, Walsh will need to find his best form.
4. Storm
Why they’re the real deal: They’re hot favourites to win the premiership with bookmakers, despite their upset loss to the Dragons. The Panthers’ poor start to the season may be an early indicator that the mountain men won’t be getting in their way again this season, after the Storm lost to them in the 2024 grand final.
Why they’re not: While it was only one game, the loss to the Dragons at Jubilee Stadium on
Saturday was unexpected, and alarming. The Dragons hadn’t won a game this season until they came up trumps against a lacklustre Storm outfit.
5. Titans
Why they’re the real deal: After conceding 40 points in the searing heat against the Bulldogs at Belmore back in round two, the Titans have tightened up their defence in a huge way, conceding just 18 points across their next two games against the Knights and the Roosters, games they both won. They’re also on the money in attack. With 80 points from their first three games, the Titans are averaging 26.6 points a game.
Why they’re not: The Titans have only played in one finals game since 2017, and are strangers to September. They’ll need to have a lot more success over a sustained period to be considered the real deal.
6. Warriors
Why they’re the real deal: They’ve won three on the trot, and have well and truly put their Vegas hiccup against the Raiders in round one behind them. Trailed 24-18 late against the Wests Tigers, but still snatched a 26-24 victory. They’ll be pleased with the form of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (92 runs, most in the NRL) and Wayde Egan (32 dummy half runs, most in the NRL). With four premierships to his name, the addition of James Fisher-Harris will help them in the bigger games later in the season.
Why they’re not: The Warriors have only featured in one finals series since 2019, and have now gone 30 years without winning a premiership. They have a long way to go to prove themselves as a big-game club.
7. Rabbitohs
Why they’re the real deal: With three wins from their first four games, including one over premiers the Panthers, the Rabbitohs have improved significantly under the guidance of Wayne Bennett this season, after finishing second last in 2024. With seven premierships to his name, Bennett will be a handy man to have at the helm when the whips are cracking later in the season. The form of fullback Jye Gray has been a real positive. Gray sits on top of the Dally M leaderboard with 14 votes.
Why they’re not: While the Rabbitohs’ win over the Panthers was impressive, Bennett will be worried that his team switched off in the second half. The Rabbitohs led 28-0 at halftime, but let in 18 unanswered points in the second half, winning 28-18. Their fortunes will hinge on the form of Latrell Mitchell, who has been named to play his first game of the season against the Roosters on Friday night. Mitchell has been inconsistent in the last couple of seasons. He needs to be playing his best football for the Rabbitohs to be considered as any sort of threat.
8. Knights
Why they’re the real deal: While the Knights have had a bye, they’ve conceded the least points of any team so far this season, which is a huge tick for their defence. With Kalyn Ponga in their side, the Knights have to be taken seriously. Ponga guided the Knights to a 10-game winning streak in 2023, which took them all the way to week two of the finals that year. If he catches fire again, look out.
Why they’re not: Aside from Ponga of course, the Knights are lacking star power in their spine. While the Knights’ defence is the best in the NRL at the moment, their attack is the worst, scoring the least points of any side this season, with just 42. It should be pointed out again though that they have had a bye and have played one less game than a lot of teams.
9. Wests Tigers
Why they’re the real deal: They have a gun spine, with Jahream Bula, Lachlan Galvin, along with multiple premiership winners Jarome Luai and Api Koroisau. With two wins from their first four games, and their losses both coming by just two points, the Tigers have improved noticeably from last season.
Why they’re not: While they have improved significantly, the reality is the Tigers have won three straight wooden spoons and are in the process of a rebuild and not realistically in premiership contention.
10. Sharks
Why they’re the real deal: The Sharks have reached the finals in the last three seasons, including two top four finishes. That’s an impressive run of consistency. With usual heavyweights the Panthers and the Roosters seemingly on the slide, has the door opened for a side like the Sharks to take advantage of that in 2025?
Why they’re not: The form of halfback Nicho Hynes is a real concern for the Sharks, with Andrew Johns admitting he “has no idea” how Hynes can get back to his best form. Few would give the Sharks any chance of winning the title if Hynes can’t recapture his best form.
11. Dragons
Why they’re the real deal: Their upset win over the Storm in round four shows they’re capable of knocking genuine title contenders over.
Why they’re not: There are still question marks over their halves, Kyle Flanagan and Lachlan Ilias. They were unable to close out the game against the Rabbitohs, despite having a 24-12 lead in the second half. Even coach Shane Flanagan couldn’t contain his disappointment with Ilias in the post-game press conference.
12. Raiders
Why they’re the real deal: Their win over the highly-fancied Broncos in round two shows they’re capable of toppling the better teams when they’re at their best.
Why they’re not: Have lost their last two games in a row in a concerning slip in form. The 40-12 loss against Manly was embarrassing, especially given the Sea Eagles were without Tom Trbojevic. The Cowboys had lost their first three games of the season before they beat the Raiders. That doesn’t say a lot for the Raiders’ title chances.
13. Panthers
Why they’re the real deal: They’ve won the last four premierships in a row. Even though they have struggled in 2025, it’s early days and it’d be foolish to write them off.
Why they’re not: They’ve lost three games in a row for the first time since 2019, and are languishing in 13th spot on the ladder. It’s their worst start to a season since 2016. While Nathan Cleary (concussion) returns for the clash against the Cowboys, winger Brian To’o (hamstring) is likely to miss the next month, and the fitness of fullback Dylan Edwards (groin) is still under a cloud, given he wasn’t named to take on North Queensland. Is this the year where injuries, and their many high-profile departures, finally catch up with them?
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14. Cowboys
Why they’re the real deal: It’s 10 years since their only premiership win, when Johnathan Thurston kicked a golden point field goal to deliver his team victory in one of the greatest grand finals in recent memory. Perhaps the 2025 team can draw inspiration from those who held the trophy aloft a decade ago.
Why they’re not: The Cowboys have struggled defensively this season, conceding 124 points in just four games. Only the Roosters (126) and the Eels (130) have conceded more points so far this season.
15. Roosters
Why they’re the real deal: Their upset win over the Panthers in round two showed they can beat any team on their day. Halfback Sam Walker has entered the final period of his ACL rehabilitation and the Roosters will be a different team when he’s back on the field.
Why they’re not: They’ve lost over 1200 games of first grade experience this season, with the departures of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Luke Keary, Joey Manu, Joseph Sua’ali’I, Terrell May, Michael Jennings and Sitili Tupouniua. The loss of that experience is showing, with only one win from their first four games. While their win over the Panthers was impressive, they’ve only had a total of two wins against the Panthers or Storm since 2020, raising serious questions over their premiership credentials.
16. Dolphins
Why they’re the real deal: Jeremy Marshall-King is a tackling machine, and leads the competition with 192 tackles so far this season.
Why they’re not: They’re winless from four games this season and are not really showing any signs that they would be able to challenge the better teams.
17. Eels
Why they’re the real deal: Star halfback Mitchell Moses is due to return from injury in round nine. That provides the only real cause for optimism for the Eels.
Why they’re not: They’ve lost all four games and are on the bottom of the ladder. They’ve conceded 130 points in those four games which is more than any other team so far this season.
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