Drawing on new research, Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte, Alberto López Ortega and Michael Hunklinger find that a clear majority of people in Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and the United States believe that Muslims pose a threat to LGBTQ+ rights.
In recent years, political narratives in western countries have increasingly portrayed Muslim communities as a threat to liberal values, such as gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights. These rhetorical strategies, often penned “homonationalism” and “femonationalism”, are instances of instrumental liberalism where illiberal actors use liberal issues as a tool to justify anti-immigrant sentiment and Islamophobic stereotypes.
But how widespread are these views among everyday citizens? In a new study, we provide a unique insight into whether these stereotypes are truly held by the public, examining responses from four western countries: Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and the United States.
How to measure (hidden) stereotypical prejudices
Uncovering and measuring prejudicial bias and discriminatory behaviour is notoriously hard. Traditional surveys often struggle to capture people’s genuine beliefs on sensitive issues due to preference falsification. Simply put, many respondents often mask their true views and beliefs, giving answers in surveys that are more likely to align with social expectations of others rather than expressing their genuine opinions.
To overcome these issues, we used an experimental design called a “list experiment” (sometimes called “item-count technique”). The advantage of the list experiment approach is simple – it allows participants to indirectly express and report preferences or beliefs that might be considered socially undesirable.
Here’s how it works. Participants are divided into two groups (A or B) and given lists of statements, each containing a mix of neutral and sensitive items. One group receives a list with an extra item. Participants are asked to indicate how many items they agree with but not which specific items. This design helps reveal the prevalence of the sensitive belief without requiring anyone to admit to it directly.
In our case, we presented respondents with a double-list and randomised if treatment (exposure to the sensitive item) was presented in List 1 or List 2. When considering each list, we asked respondents to report how many of the groups named in each list they considered to be threatening to LGBTQ+ individuals and experimentally randomised the presence of Muslims – the sensitive item of interest – in each of the lists.
What we found
Across all four countries surveyed, a majority of respondents expressed agreement with the stereotypical view that Muslims are a threat to LGBTQ+ individuals. As shown in Figure 1, the prevalence of this stereotypical view is comfortably above the 50% of citizens in all countries.
In Germany and the Netherlands, where far-right groups have a longer history of leveraging homonationalist rhetoric, approximately two-thirds of participants endorsed this view, indicating that these countries might have a particularly receptive environment for anti-Muslim messaging under the banner of protecting LGBTQ+ rights. While the proportions reported in the US and the UK are smaller, they nonetheless remain majority positions.
Figure 1: Overall prevalence among respondents
Note: For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper in the British Journal of Political Science (available open access).
In addition to considering how widespread these stereotypes were among voters in general, we also looked at whether certain groups within society, such as LGBTQ+ individuals themselves or people with left-leaning political beliefs, were more or less likely to hold these stereotypes of Muslims.
One might assume that right-wing voters or those with more hostile views towards immigration might be particularly prone to this stereotypical thinking. Interestingly, however, we found no significant difference between LGBTQ+ and non-LGBTQ+ individuals. Both groups were just as likely to hold these views, which may suggest that far-right narratives framing Muslims as a threat to LGBTQ+ rights resonate broadly, even among those who might otherwise be expected to hold more inclusive views.
Figure 2: Prevalence among respondents based on their left (0) – right (10) position
Note: For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper in the British Journal of Political Science (available open access).
Additionally, the stereotype was present across the political spectrum, not only among the usual suspects (right-wing voters and those with anti-immigration preferences) but also among those who identify with more liberal or left-leaning ideologies (Figure 2). The quasi-ubiquitous nature of the “Muslims-as-illiberal-bogeyman” stereotype has transcended traditional political divides, making it a pervasive underlying belief in many parts of society.
Why it matters
The widespread endorsement of this stereotype has several concerning implications. For one, it signals a barrier to social inclusion for Muslims in western countries, where they are often already marginalised. If large segments of the western population view Muslims as inherently hostile to LGBTQ+ rights (an increasingly nationalised indicator of liberal norms), this is likely to fuel further prejudice and discrimination against these communities, hindering efforts to build inclusive societies.
Moreover, the breadth of this stereotype presents a potential strategic electoral advantage for far-right political parties that often rely on Muslims-as-threatening tropes to rally supporters to their nativist cause. By aligning their messaging with the defence of liberal values, like women’s rights and LGBTQ+ equality, these groups can appeal to a broader base, including individuals who might typically endorse liberal preferences and reject anti-immigrant policies simultaneously. This approach has the potential to create unexpected political alliances, with individuals and groups who might otherwise oppose each other coming together over shared stereotypes of Muslims-as-threat.
Our results serve as a stark reminder of how powerful – and damaging – stereotypes can be. While western democracies often pride themselves on being inclusive, the reality is that prejudices can linger below the surface, affecting how entire groups are perceived. As citizens, we should be cautious of narratives that seek to demonise out-groups by playing on stereotypes, even those that claim to defend liberal values.
For more information, see the authors’ accompanying paper in the British Journal of Political Science (available open access).
Note: This article gives the views of the authors, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Ben Gingell / Shutterstock.com
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