China and the EU have both sought to take a leading role in efforts to fight climate change. Unai Gómez-Hernández asks whether they might now engage in closer climate cooperation as a result of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Back in 2017, the United Nations General Assembly included for the first time the phrase “community of shared future for mankind” in one of its resolutions. This diplomatic move represented the crystallisation of former general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Hu Jintao’s idea about the centrality of Beijing in international affairs.
It also represented the success of Xi Jinping’s government abroad in the promotion of a more “responsible” image for China. This role as the “responsible player” in global affairs had already been echoed by Xi some months before at the annual Davos Summit. Against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s first US presidency, the Chinese President adopted the “responsible country” role by arguing the world should “adhere to multilateralism”.
Eight years later, the world is once again facing up to the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s leadership. And once again, China is happy to play the role of the responsible player in global affairs. Of particular interest will be whether China chooses to step into the vacuum left by Trump when it comes to tackling climate change – and whether China might find an ally in these efforts in the shape of the EU.
Green shoots for EU-China relations?
In the same Davos speech in 2017, Xi praised the Paris Agreement on climate change and emphasised the “responsibility” countries had to “assume for future generations”. With this said, more recent developments, such as China’s opposition to financing a global fund for responding to loss and damage from climate change and the country’s carbon footprint linked to the use of coal, call into question whether China is willing to sacrifice economic prosperity for the sake of this responsibility.
The EU has also sought to be an international leader in fighting climate change with the creation of the European Green Deal and other policies such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Taken at face value, this might suggest the EU and China might be able to find common ground on the climate. Yet, until now, the EU and China have been on opposite sides of systemic competition between the liberal West and the rest of the world.
Chinese ambitions
Official communications from the Chinese government suggest the country is ready to lead on climate change. In 2024, during the so-called “Two Sessions” plenary – the most important political gathering of the year – Beijing indicated it would continue the “energy revolution and actively and prudently work toward peaking carbon dioxide emissions and achieving carbon neutrality”. Here, the key words are “prudently” and “peaking”. The former underlines the priority the economy takes when considering battling climate change.
This year’s Two Sessions plenary relegated climate change to a secondary role, indicating that if cutting emissions harms the Chinese economy, the government would favour growth over the planet. Indeed, Beijing has set a later date to achieve net zero (2060) than other world powers such as the US or the EU, which have both aimed for 2050.
These differences are apparent when it comes to global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2023, China ranked as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with 30.1% of total global emissions. The US was a distant second with 11.25% of emissions, while the EU was in fourth position with 6.08%.
China’s role in UN climate change conferences has at times come into conflict with the EU’s approach. The loss and damage fund was a clear example, with China and the EU taking opposing positions on the issue. Yet climate change remains an area where there is more room for cooperation. Last year’s EU-China High Level Environment and Climate Dialogue offers a clear example of how the two sides can work together.
Trade friction
One of the biggest sticking points in China-EU cooperation on climate change is the role of trade. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been a particular source of friction, given its integration of economics into climate policies.
The rationale behind this regulation is to impose duties on products that have a significant carbon footprint and are being imported into the EU. The plan is to use what has been called “market power Europe” to force other countries to adopt the EU’s regulation.
However, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been received negatively by many countries who export their products to the EU, including China. It is regarded by these countries as a protectionist measure, even if it could potentially promote more effective environmental policy for industrial production.
Despite this, there is some evidence that China is adjusting to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, notably by announcing plans for “no coal-involved steel production” in early 2024. Whether this is a trend or a temporary move remains to be seen. What is clear is that fighting policy initiatives that bring states closer to climate goals is a difficult sell to countries China would like to tempt from the western sphere of influence. The contradictions in China’s climate policies might therefore create opportunities for the EU in its engagement with countries in the Global South.
The Trump effect
Until now, the EU has not been a key foreign policy priority for China. Yet Trump’s presidency is changing the rules of the game. Both China and the EU have been threatened with US tariffs. As China and the EU’s relationships with the US sour, China-EU relations are likely to sweeten.
It is difficult to envisage a future in which China can simultaneously cope with a combative US, oppose the EU’s attempts to set norms and still lead on climate change. Indeed, if President Xi believes that China has an important role to play in a “community of shared future for mankind”, he will have to take European climate norms seriously and adapt.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
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