Danger that could spark final title swing; what next for toxic merry-go-round — F1 State of Play

The final chapters of the 2025 Formula 1 campaign are about to be written, but don’t make the mistake of thinking the last three rounds are about the drivers title only.

You can’t throw 10 teams and 20 drivers into a 24-round campaign and expect nothing to be left on the line at the finish.

The 2025 season set us up with bountiful storylines in March, and so many of them are yet to reach their conclusions.

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The protagonists have just three rounds — a geographically absurd triple-header spanning the US west coast to the Middle East — to settle their differences.

And yes, there’s the drivers championship to fight for too.

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WHO WILL WIN THE DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP?

Well, obviously. It’s the reason we’re all here,

Only three drivers remain in contention for the title. Lando Norris leads Oscar Piastri by 24 points and Max Verstappen by 49 points.

Norris can’t win the championship this weekend, but he can eliminate Verstappen if he outscored the Dutchman by 10 points or more.

Piastri is guaranteed to last until at least the Qatar Grand Prix, though he could be defeated as early as the sprint. You’d have to feel for Norris, at least a little bit, if that were to come to pass — what a flat way to win your maiden championship.

The form guide from here to the finale in Abu Dhabi is mixed, and this weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix will likely be pivotal to the outcome.

This has proved to be one of McLaren’s weakest tracks in the race’s two-year existence. The team should still be vulnerable here even accounting for its big 2025 improvements.

Many expect Verstappen to outscore both McLaren drivers this weekend, though it would take a double McLaren DNF to restore even scant hope to the Dutchman’s championship defence.

But this could be a danger race for either Norris or Piastri, who may be forced into compromising situations from behind the first two rows on the grid. Piastri in particular can’t afford another big swing to Norris, but the Briton could find his comfortable position dented if things weren’t to go his way.

The pressure is going to get only higher from here. It’ll be fascinating to watch.

WHICH TEAMS WILL WIN THE BIG BUCKS?

There’s big money behind the fight for best of the rest — the difference between second and fourth should be worth more than $25 million — and momentum could still count for a lot.

Battle for second

2. Mercedes: 398 points

3. Red Bull Racing: 366 points (-32 points)

4. Ferrari: 362 points (-36 points)

Consider, for example, what it would mean for Mercedes to finish second, where it currently sits after a strong weekend in Brazil.

It would have achieved the runner-up finish with a rookie driver who failed to score in seven of nine rounds in the middle of the season. It would speak to the somewhat understated quality of the car and to the superb season from George Russell but also to Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s strong finish to get the team over the line, proving correct those who gambled on his early promotion was worthwhile.

What about Red Bull Racing? If the 2022–23 constructors championship finished second, it would do so despite being effectively a one-car team. Verstappen has 93 per cent of the team’s points, with Yuki Tsunoda contributing only 25 points of the team’s total of 366.

For Ferrari, though, it should be the bare minimum.

In Charles Lecelrc and Lewis Hamilton it has on paper one of Formula 1’s most potent line-ups. It has historically significant resources and infrastructure. It has history and prestige.

But in Brazil it tumbled from second to fourth and is now 36 points adrift of Mercedes.

Ferrari should have been — expected to be — contending for both championships this year after falling narrowly short of the constructors crown in 2024. That it failed to do so already makes this season a disappointment. If it can’t finish at least second, ahead of two other severely compromised frontrunners, then this year really will be grim.

Battle for sixth

6. Racing Bulls: 82 points

7. Aston Martin: 72 points (-10 points)

8. Haas: 70 points (-12 points)

9. Sauber: 62 points (-20 points)

Racing Bulls proved in Brazil, where it scored a midfield-best 10 points, that having two cars in the mix is likely what will win it sixth place.

With the difference between sixth and ninth estimated to be worth close to $40 million, that’d be a satisfying result given the tumult at Red Bull’s driver program.

Aston Martin will need Lance Stroll to fire up if it’s to steal the place

Haas, though, is the dark horse. It’s been comfortably the best scorer since the sport left Europe, its latest upgrade — coming after most teams had halted updates — working to haul it up the table.

Sauber is now likely out of this fight without another Silverstone-esque big result.

CAN FERRARI GET A WIN — AND CAN HAMILTON GET HIS FIRST FERRARI PODIUM?

On a related note: how bad has Ferrari’s season been?

The team is on track for the 17th winless season in its 76 campaigns.

That’s dire in its own right but even more telling in context.

We’re in a title drought of historic proportions for the Italian team.

This is its 17th season without a constructors title and its 18th year without the drivers championship.

It hadn’t previously gone longer than 15 years without the teams title, though its record dry spell for individual honours was the 20 barren campaigns between Jody Scheckter in 1979 and Michael Schumacher in 2000.

While that record — approaching alarmingly close on the horizon — is a problem for the coming seasons, winning a race before the 2025 campaign is finished looms as an increasingly important objective.

It’s not just that this season has been desperately underwhelming. It’s that pressure is now being applied from above after chairman John Elkann’s stunning intervention last week.

A win would serve as a release valve just as expectations begin to ramp up for 2026.

This objective goes hand in hand with Hamilton’s to-date 21-round run without a podium, the longest stretch without stepping onto the rostrum for a Ferrari debutant.

A sprint win is of only limited salve for such a burn.

Hamilton has got close, having finished fourth four times this year, but time is running out to salvage something from his first “nightmare” first Ferrari season.

WHO WILL RED BULL FIELD NEXT SEASON?

The Red Bull program controls all three of the remaining seats on the 2026 grid, and it’s not in a rush to confirm who will occupy which ones.

Despite having said that a decision would be made around the time of last month’s Mexico City Grand Prix, the brand has since said that it will take its time, acknowledging that it holds all the cards.

What the team does with Yuki Tsunoda at Red Bull Racing is the biggest and most important question.

On paper it’s a plum drive, but in reality it’s poison. No driver since Daniel Ricciardo in 2018 has truly excelled alongside Verstappen, and more recently the seat has threatened to kill careers.

But even with the mitigating circumstances of Tsunoda being only the latest driver to struggle badly in the seat, it’s a hard sell to a frontrunner like Red Bull Racing to keep a driver who’s scored only 25 points for the team.

Isack Hadjar is heavily tipped to replace him after a standout rookie season in which he’s been on average the eighth-best qualifier in only the sixth-best car.

But Tsunoda could still save his career if he can do enough to argue that he should be retained at Racing Bulls, where both seats are in dispute.

The team seems increasingly likely to promote Red Bull junior Arvid Lindblad despite the Briton’s middling Formula 2 campaign. That leaves just one seat for either Tsunoda or Liam Lawson.

Lawson is tipped to keep it given he’s newer to the sport and therefore in theory has more to gain. Tsunoda is a known quantity who some in the business will view as spent after a bruising year as Verstappen’s teammate.

His ties to Honda, which will switch from the Red Bull teams to Aston Martin next year, also potentially hurt him.

Tsunoda’s speed and consistency in the Racing Bulls car last year shouldn’t be so easily forgotten, but it’ll be up to him to make that point on track in the final three rounds.

WHO’LL WIN THE HEAD TO HEADS — AND CAN THESE TWO DRIVERS STAVE OFF OBLITERATION?

The first person every driver wants to beat is their teammate. Even if it will really count for little once drivers fly home from Abu Dhabi in December, never underestimate the ego involved in these battles.

Qualifying might be the purest form of this intrateam battle, and there are still three driver pairings for which the head-to-head count could go either way.

Qualifying head-to-heads still live

McLaren: Lando Norris leads Oscar Piastri 11-10

Williams: Carlos Sainz leads Alex Albon 11-10

Sauber: Gabriel Bortoleto leads Nico Hülkenberg 11-9

The weight of the outcome of the McLaren battle is clear, but consider the two midfield scraps.

While Sainz has been much less consistent in race trim, it’s clear his single-lap speed has been undented by his move down the grid. This battle could be influential if Williams makes its hoped-for move up the grid next year.

Meanwhile, rookie Bortoleto is just one qualifying victory away from putting away his far more experienced teammate Sauber teammate — and let’s not forget Hülkenberg’s strong reputation for one-lap speed. This too has implications as Sauber rebrands to the Audi works team next season.

While these battles are close, let’s look at the opposite end of the spectrum

Qualifying whitewashes

Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso leads Lance Stroll 20-0

Red Bull Racing: Max Verstappen leads Yuki Tsunoda 18-0

Despite Alonso leading Stroll by just eight points in the standings, the 44-year-old’s one-lap pace has comfortably accounted for his 27-year-old teammate in qualifying.

Completing this whitewash would be sobering for any driver who wasn’t the son of the team owner.

It’s entirely unsurprising, meanwhile, to see Verstappen obliterate Tsunoda at the team built around him. It would be a shock if the run were broken before the end of the year.

There’s only one head-to-head count still live for race finishes — a stat that includes only those grands prix in which both teammates are classified.

Race head-to-heads still live

Sauber: Gabriel Bortoleto and Nico Hülkenberg tied 7-7

This is another statement statistic from rookie Bortoleto, who could find himself leading the Audi factory team by the end of next season.

The one race whitewash still live is entirely unsurprising.

Race whitewash

Red Bull Racing: Verstappen leads Tsunoda 16-0

It’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Tsunoda overturns this count.

Finally, let’s look at the drivers close on the title table.

Close scores

McLaren: Lando Norris (1st) leads Oscar Piastri (2nd) by 24 points

Racing Bulls: Isack Hadjar (10th) leads Liam Lawson (14th) by 7 points

Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso (11th) leads Lance Stroll (15th) by 8 points

Haas: Oliver Bearman (12th) leads Esteban Ocon (16th) by 10 points

The importance of the McLaren battle is obvious, but there are three other pairings who remain closely matched on the table.

Could Hadjar prevailing over Lawson — or not — be important to his presumed promotion to Red Bull Racing next season? Even if that were already all but a done deal, the Kiwi beating the Frenchman would presumably do wonders for Lawson keeping that seat next year given the low base from which he started when returning to the team. It’s the sort of recovery and mental toughness Red Bull loves to see.

Alonso took the points lead from Stroll only in Singapore but has gradually stretched it open. While his earlier bad luck appears to have equalised, one big swing against him could see him finish behind a teammate in the points after a full season for only the third time in his career.

At Haas, Bearman appears to have captured the ascendancy in the second half of the year, rocketing past Ocon on all key metrics. The more experienced Frenchman would have expected to finish ahead, but if he were to pinch back the place, it would likely be only a short-term satisfaction in the face of what seems to be a strengthening tide against him.