Alex de Minaur is guaranteed a favourable run to the Australian Open quarter-finals, having secured at least a top-eight seed at his home slam.
And his chances of becoming the first Aussie man in the ATP top five since Lleyton Hewitt in 2006 have increased thanks to surprise losses for Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime and the USA’s Taylor Fritz in the United Cup.
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Both men have won just one match in the tournament, with Canada already eliminated, while the USA is into the semi-finals despite Fritz losing two of his three singles matches while battling through “pretty serious tendonitis” in his knee.
De Minaur, who came into the week ranked sixth and is now fifth on the live rankings, has added more points to his tally than either Auger-Aliassime or Fritz thus far by beating a higher-ranked opponent.
Those results combined with world No.8 Ben Shelton being inactive this week means de Minaur is set to rank at worst seventh heading into the Australian Open, though an equal career-high of sixth would be more likely than that.
The ranking will guarantee he cannot face a player seeded higher than him until the quarter-finals, when he would be in line to face a top-four seed – Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Alex Zverev or Novak Djokovic.
De Minaur leads team Australia against Poland in the United Cup quarter-finals this Friday evening, and will face in-form big server Hubert Hurkacz, who has made a stellar return from injury beating world No.3 Alex Zverev and world No.25 Tallon Griekspoor without dropping a set.
Current live ATP rankings and points
5. Alex de Minaur (4080 plus 45 for win vs Jakub Mensik)
6. Lorenzo Musetti (3990 plus 50 for Hong Kong QF)
7. Felix Auger-Aliassime (3990 plus 25 for win vs Zhang Zhizhen)
8. Ben Shelton (3960 and inactive this week)
9. Taylor Fritz (3840 plus 35 for win vs Jaume Munar)
Hurkacz’s low ranking means de Minaur can only add another 35 points by beating him in the quarter-finals.
Ironically, the biggest risk for de Minaur would be facing Fritz in the semi-finals and losing to him, as each man could gain 130 points for victory in that match-up.
That would enable Fritz to pass him for fifth, if Fritz also then faces and beats Czechia’s Jakub Mensik in the tournament final. Otherwise Fritz does not appear to have enough ranking points up for grabs to pass de Minaur.
De Minaur’s biggest threat is otherwise Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti, who can add 250 points to his tally for winning the Hong Kong Open.
If de Minaur doesn’t win another match this week, Musetti would pass him by making the final in Hong Kong.
If de Minaur beats Hurkacz but then loses to Fritz, Musetti would pass him by winning the final.
The 32 seeds for the Australian Open will be confirmed after the weekly ATP and WTA rankings updates next Monday.
On the women’s side, Aussie Maya Joint is currently No.31 on the live rankings and will be seeded unless Sorana Cirstea upsets world No.1 Aryna Sabalenka at the Brisbane International and then goes deep into the tournament.
AUSSIE WOMEN FALL SHORT IN BRISBANE UPSET BIDS
Marco Monteverde, Newswire
Australian qualifier Olivia Gadecki’s brief hopes of a Brisbane International upset win over world No.9 Mirra Andreeva were dashed at the Queensland Tennis Centre on Wednesday night.
Gold Coast product Gadecki defied her own world ranking of 209 to win the first set of the second-round encounter, before Russian star Andreeva stormed home to win 4-6 6-1 6-2 in one hour and 53 minutes.
“Olivia is a very tough opponent to play my first match against,” said Andreeva, who had a first-round bye.
“I knew that this match would not be easy, and she played well. Especially in the first set, it felt like she was very aggressive and she was pushing me to the limit.
“I also felt I needed a bit more time to get into the rhythm of the match. I’m just happy for the win.
“There are a lot of things I could say that I could have done better but overall it’s good to start the year with a win.”
Signs were positive early for 23-year-old qualifier Gadecki against the tournament’s sixth seed, who reached the semi-finals at last year’s tournament.
With scores locked at 4-4 in the first set, Gadecki broke Andreeva’s serve and then kept her composure to hold her own serve and win the set 6-4 in 43 minutes.
However, any hopes of a boilover were quickly put to bed by Andreeva, who conceded only three games over the final two sets to set up a round-of-16 battle with ninth seed Linda Noskova.
The Czech Republic’s Noskova also needed three sets to win her second-round encounter, beating Poland’s Magdalena Frech 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-4 in a tense affair that lasted for two and a half hours.
It will be the third time that Andreeva and Noskova have met at the Brisbane International, with the ledger at one win apiece.
“I feel like Brisbane is not Brisbane if I don’t play against Linda,” Andreeva said.
“She’s a great player, she plays very aggressive, she goes for her shots, so as all of our matches from before have been, it’s going to be a battle and it’s going to be a very entertaining match.”
Australia’s Kimberly Birrell also tasted defeat on Wednesday night, losing her second-round encounter to world No.3 Amanda Anisimova 6-1 6-3 in 64 minutes on Pat Rafter Arena.
American Anisimova, the tournament’s second seed, will meet Marta Kostyuk in the round-of-16.
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