Dons disaster sparks wild nine-team race for finals; $1m game looms large: AFLW Run Home

AFLW LADDER (After Round 8)

1. Melbourne (7-1, 266%) – To play: vs Fremantle (13th), at Brisbane (4th)

2. Adelaide Crows (7-1, 210.8%) – To play: vs North (3rd), at West Coast (16th)

3. North Melbourne (6-2, 236.2%) – To play: at Adelaide (2nd), vs Western Bulldogs (18th)

4. Brisbane Lions (6-2, 163.3%) – To play: at St Kilda (12th), vs Melbourne (1st)

5. Essendon (5-3, 102.4%) – To play: vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Collingwood (5-3, 101.1%) – To play: at Sydney (10th), vs Richmond (11th)

7. Gold Coast Suns (4-3-1, 106.5%) – To play: vs GWS (15th), vs Essendon (5th)

8. Geelong (4-4, 118.5%) – To play: at Richmond (11th), vs Hawthorn (14th)

9. Carlton (4-4, 97.8%) – To play: at Essendon (5th), vs St Kilda (12th)

10. Sydney Swans (4-4, 97.1%) – To play: vs Collingwood (6th), at Fremantle (13th)

11. Richmond (4-4, 96.4%) – To play: vs Geelong (8th), at Collingwood (6th)

12. St Kilda (4-4, 90.6%) – To play: vs Brisbane (4th), at Carlton (9th)

13. Fremantle (4-4, 80.7%) – To play: at Melbourne (1st), vs Sydney (10th)

14. Hawthorn (2-6, 67.9%) – To play: vs Port Adelaide (17th), at Geelong (8th)

15. GWS Giants (2-6, 58.5%) – To play: at Gold Coast (7th), at Port Adelaide (17th)

16. West Coast Eagles (2-6, 45.3%) – To play: vs Western Bulldogs (18th), vs Adelaide (2nd)

17. Port Adelaide (1-6-1, 60.7%) – To play: at Hawthorn (14th), vs GWS (15th)

18. Western Bulldogs (0-8, 53%) – To play: at West Coast (16th), vs North (3rd)

TOP FOUR RACE

1. Melbourne (7-1, 266%) – To play: vs Fremantle (13th), at Brisbane (4th)

2. Adelaide Crows (7-1, 210.8%) – To play: vs North (3rd), at West Coast (16th)

3. North Melbourne (6-2, 236.2%) – To play: at Adelaide (2nd), vs Western Bulldogs (18th)

4. Brisbane Lions (6-2, 163.3%) – To play: at St Kilda (12th), vs Melbourne (1st)

5. Essendon (5-3, 102.4%) – To play: vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Collingwood (5-3, 101.1%) – To play: at Sydney (10th), vs Richmond (11th)

Well, this isn’t actually a race any more.

We went into Round 8 with a potential intruder cracking the pack of genuine flag contenders – two surprising results (one moreso than the other) ensured the top four is effectively locked.

First Brisbane handed Adelaide its first loss of the season, also keeping alive the Lions’ chances of winning the McClelland Trophy (as we’ll discuss in a moment), and then came the real shocker as Essendon lost to lowly West Coast at home.

In the process, the Bombers threw away their slim hopes of the double chance – and let’s be clear, it’s impressive they’re fifth in just their second season, but losing to this West Coast team (who just spent a week dealing with the fallout from their coach complaining a game was too hard) just isn’t good enough.

With a win and a huge chunk of percentage between the fourth-placed Lions and the two 5-3 sides, the perennial contenders would need to lose to an up-and-down St Kilda (which would be a big surprise) plus Melbourne, while either Essendon or Collingwood goes 2-0, to see a top four shake-up.

The latter is possible, particularly for the Magpies who should beat both the Swans and Tigers, but the Lions really shouldn’t lose to the Saints. (North Melbourne could theoretically be caught too, but would need to lose to the winless Bulldogs, which… no.)

So if the Lions win, the top four is locked – and suddenly their final round clash with Melbourne would be for $1 million.

That’s because the McClelland Trophy is now awarded to the team with the best combined performance across the men’s and women’s competitions, with four points for AFL wins and eight points for AFLW wins.

There are three contenders left with Melbourne (120 points, 141.2%) leading Brisbane (116 points, 128.2%) and Collingwood (112 points, 123.5%).

The Magpies would effectively be eliminated with one more Melbourne win, and if the Demons and Lions both win in Round 9 as expected, the winner of their Round 10 clash will claim the trophy – and the $1 million in prize money to be shared amongst the club and its players.

(Yes, just like the XFL, the AFL now has a Million Dollar Game. Finally, we’re copying American sport in the right way!)

In terms of the actual top-four order, this week’s Crows-Kangaroos and next week’s Lions-Demons games will have a massive impact on who hosts the qualifying finals – though Melbourne is favoured to stay ahead of Brisbane, and indeed in the top two, even with a Round 10 loss because of its excellent percentage.

TOP EIGHT RACE

5. Essendon (5-3, 102.4%) – To play: vs Carlton (9th), at Gold Coast (7th)

6. Collingwood (5-3, 101.1%) – To play: at Sydney (10th), vs Richmond (11th)

7. Gold Coast Suns (4-3-1, 106.5%) – To play: vs GWS (15th), vs Essendon (5th)

8. Geelong (4-4, 118.5%) – To play: at Richmond (11th), vs Hawthorn (14th)

9. Carlton (4-4, 97.8%) – To play: at Essendon (5th), vs St Kilda (12th)

10. Sydney Swans (4-4, 97.1%) – To play: vs Collingwood (6th), at Fremantle (13th)

11. Richmond (4-4, 96.4%) – To play: vs Geelong (8th), at Collingwood (6th)

12. St Kilda (4-4, 90.6%) – To play: vs Brisbane (4th), at Carlton (9th)

13. Fremantle (4-4, 80.7%) – To play: at Melbourne (1st), vs Sydney (10th)

This is actually ridiculous.

With two weeks left, just a win and 21.7% separates fifth from 13th, with any of these nine teams having a genuine chance to play finals.

Of course, those teams don’t all have an equal chance – Fremantle basically has to upset Melbourne on the road, and after losing to the Dockers this past weekend, St Kilda almost certainly has to upset Brisbane – but a chance nonetheless.

In particular, it’s worth looking at Essendon, Collingwood, Carlton, Sydney and Richmond, at least two of whom should play finals and are super close to one another…

– On percentage, the best (Essendon) and worst (Richmond) teams are split by just three goals (!!!), so their margins over the next two weeks really, really matter;

– There are three games left involving the quintet, including two this week with Bombers vs Blues and the Chloe Molloy Cup of Magpies vs Swans. Throw in Magpies vs Tigers in the final round, and these games will have an enormous impact on who plays finals.

Carlton could have been in a strong position but copped an upset loss to GWS, while Essendon’s awful defeat against West Coast has thrown them back into the pack. From here, six wins will get you into the post-season.

That means the Bombers and Magpies just need one more victory – yet that isn’t assured. As mentioned earlier, the Pies will be favoured in their last two games but not by a lot; and the Bombers can hardly be trusted, having beaten just one top-10 team all year (Geelong).

Gold Coast’s draw against Port Adelaide was less than ideal, but at least it means they don’t have to worry about their percentage, and beating the Giants this Friday night could end up being enough for a finals berth if everything goes their way.

If anyone is going to sneak in with just five wins, it’d probably be Geelong, thanks to a handy edge on percentage which they’re very unlikely to give up. This week’s clash with Richmond is close to a toss-up, with the Tigers weighed down by some close losses and having a win over Brisbane on their record, but win that and they’re in a great spot with a dangerous but still building Hawthorn side to come in Round 10.

Collingwood should play finals from here, and Geelong is still in a strong position. The Essendon-Gold Coast winner in Round 10 should make it too.

The last spot would then come down to Carlton, the Bombers-Suns loser and either Sydney or Richmond if they pull an upset or two. Percentage would almost certainly come into play.

Conveniently, Bombers-Suns kicks off Round 10, while the Blues, Swans and Tigers all play on the final Sunday of the season.

It should be quite the finish.