There are two rounds left in the NRL regular season but already, seven teams have booked their finals tickets and are locked into the top seven spots.
Where it gets interesting is the race for the eighth, with five teams battling for that final spot. The Dragons’ loss to the Sharks would have been well received by Broncos, Dolphins, Knights and Raiders, who are all just one win behind the Red V.
And now a stunning collapse against the Eels has set up a five-way scramble for the final spot in the finals.
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Here, foxsports.com.au dissects the all-important race for the last finals spot as well as what can happen between positions one and seven, as teams try and jostle for a second chance or a home final.
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RACE FOR EIGHTH SPOT
8th — Dragons (28 points, -120)
Remaining games – Eels (a), Raiders (h)
They would have pencilled in the last spot in the eight with a win over Cronulla, but they couldn’t get the job done. The Red V took on a desperate Eels outfit on Saturday and have fallen behind quickly. They now face Canberra in the final round and their for/against is much worse than the Broncos and Dolphins.
9th — Broncos (26 points, +2)
Remaining games – Dolphins (a), Storm (h)
They looked dead and buried a fortnight ago, but thanks to two straight wins (Cowboys and Eels) and some other results going their way, the Broncos are a live hope of progressing. They’ll need to win their final two games against the Dolphins and what is likely to be a understrength Storm outfit. Because of their superior for/against, if that happens and if the Dragons lose at least one more game, Brisbane will finish eighth.
10th — Dolphins (26 points, -27)
Remaining games – Broncos (h), Knights (a)
Six weeks ago, they would have been short odds on to make the finals, but after losing five of their last six, the Dolphins are on the outside looking in. They take on the Broncos in a Queensland Derby next weekend, which will essentially be an elimination final, with the loser knocked out of the finals race. If they win that, beat the Knights the following week and the Dragons lose two, the Dolphins will play finals footy in just their second year in the comp.
11th —Knights (26 points, -70)
Remaining games – Titans (h), Dolphins (h)
Took care of business and thrashed the Rabbitohs in Round 25. They now have two winnable games at home against the out of form Titans and Dolphins. To progress to the finals, Newcastle have to win both and hope for the Broncos, Dragons and Raiders to all lose at least one game. One of those teams is sure to lose at least once as the Dragons-Raiders meet in the final round.
12th — Raiders (26 points, -131)
Remaining games – Roosters (a), Dragons (a)
Kept their slim finals hopes alive with a stunning upset win over Penrith. The Roosters are next on the agenda, which is another tough assignment, but one thing you can’t do is rule Ricky’s Raiders out of any game. If they beat the Roosters/Dragons, and the Dolphins, Broncos and Knights don’t win both of their final two games, Canberra will secure eighth spot.
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1ST TO 7TH
1st — Storm (42 points, +205)
Remaining games – Broncos (a)
The Storm locked up the minor premiership with a win over the Dolphins after the Raiders upset the Panthers in Canberra earlier in the day. It’s the sixth minor premiership for Craig Bellamy’s men in 14 years.
2nd — Panthers (36 points, +180)
Remaining games – Rabbitohs (h), Titans (h)
Coach Ivan Cleary admitted after the loss to Canberra that Penrith aren’t playing good footy at the moment. The Panthers got back on track with a win over the Rabbitohs and are still in the frame for a home qualifying final. They need to hope the Roosters and Sharks have at least one hiccup over the next two weeks and must then beat the Titans next week.
3rd — Roosters (36 points, +269)
Remaining games – Raiders (h), Rabbitohs (a)
They’re humming at the moment, putting 48 points on the Titans in a dominant win. In fact, they’re averaging 40 points a game over their past four outings. It’s simple for the Roosters – defeat Canberra and Souths, they’ll finish second and set up a home qualifying final against either the Sharks, Panthers or Bulldogs. They are pretty much locked into a top four spot given their differential is 135 points better than the Bulldogs.
4th — Sharks (36 points, +204)
Remaining games – Warriors (h), Sea Eagles (a)
Improved to third with the win over the Dragons on Sunday. Importantly, the second half blitz means their for/against has improved to an impressive +204, which should be enough of a margin to hold the tie-breaker over the Panthers. The Sharks have had quite the season despite a few key injuries, but can they do it in the finals? It’s been the big question mark looming over them since Craig Fitzgibbon was hired, with the Sharks going 0-3 in finals games during that span. A winnable game against the Warriors awaits next week before a final round blockbuster with the Sea Eagles in Round 27. They can finish as high as second with two wins, at least one Roosters loss and at least one Panthers loss.
5th — Bulldogs (34 points, +134)
Remaining games – Cowboys (h)
A loss to the Sea Eagles has dashed the Dogs’ chances of finishing inside the top four and now they control their own destiny, with fifth spot locked in if they win next week against the sixth-placed Cowboys. A loss, however, could see them drop as low as seventh should Manly defeat the Sharks. Given the Bulldogs’ home record (10-1), that would be a big blow for their finals hopes.
6th — Cowboys (32 points, +51)
Remaining games – Bulldogs (a)
They have a final round showdown with the Dogs which will likely decide who finishes fifth. A draw could open the door for Manly to jump both teams. North Queensland cab finish as high as fifth or as low as seventh. A Cowboys loss and Sea Eagles loss would still see Todd Payten’s men finish sixth with a home final.
7th — Sea Eagles (31 points, +133)
Remaining games – Sharks (h)
Can finish as high as fifth, but for that to happen, they need a draw between the Bulldogs and Cowboys. At this stage, a home final and sixth-place finish is the likely best scenario and would require Manly to beat the Sharks.
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