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‘Erratic’: Damning stat behind shocking Panthers slide as history shuts door on fifth straight title

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What in the world has happened to the Penrith Panthers?

Winners of the last four premierships, the Panthers are playing an unrecognisable brand of footy amid a dreadful 1-5 start to the season.

No team in the history of the game has overcome such a start to a season and won a comp.

Watch your team in the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership. Stream every round LIVE in 4K, with no ad-breaks during play, on Kayo Sports. New to Kayo? Get your first month for just $1. Limited-time offer.

Champions can never be counted out though, which is why there’s still a feeling that they’ll be able to figure things out and mount another charge at glory.

However, they need to turn around things … and quickly. Ivan Cleary said as much in his post-match press conference on Thursday night.

“We obviously need to turn that around but once we do I feel like we can get going … but tough times at the moment,” the Panthers coach said following the 30-12 loss to the Dolphins.

Penrith have built their dynasty off a tough, restrictive defensive unit which battered the spirits of opponents time and time again.

That reputation though, is in danger of being lost and a damning stat supports this.

Between 2020 and 2024 – the years Penrith made five straight grand finals, winning four – the Panthers conceded 30 points in a game on just six occasions (4.5%).

Through six games in 2025, Penrith have already allowed their opposition to score at least 30 points three times (50%).

On average this season, they’ve conceded 28.3 points per game.

Penrith’s once fearsome defence is no longer feared.

Graph showing points conceded by Panthers in each game since start of 2020. The red indicates each time Penrith conceded at least 30 points. Source: FOX LABSource: FOX SPORTS

Cleary is “concerned” and doesn’t yet have the answers for his side’s defensive slump.

“It’s pretty obvious our defence is not up to standard and that’s having a big effect on the rest of the game,” he said.

“Too many weeks where we just can’t defend our line which just gives the opposition confidence and probably takes ours away a little bit.

“That’s something we’ve historically been so good at so that’s probably a little concerning for all of us so there’s obviously a few questions that haven’t been answered.

“We’ve got to get to work and make sure we improve it because if we don’t the same thing will keep happening. But I’m still confident we can improve we just need to do it at some point.”

Fox League’s Bryan Fletcher believes Penrith are being exposed on the edges, which is leading to errors when they chase the game from behind, which they are not used to.

“The Dolphins were getting to their edges and scoring tries through there, which is unusual for Penrith,” Fletcher said.

“I think the other thing we have seen this year, which we haven’t seen is that they are always chasing points.

“The last month they have been trying to chase points and that’s when they make mistakes and look a bit erratic.”

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It can be easy to forget about the raft of players Penrith lose each season due to salary cap constraints given they’ve been able to overcome it every year.

Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris were the two key losses in free agency this past off-season, with both excellent defensive players for their position.

Could that duo’s departure be the straw that breaks the camel’s back?

One ex-NRL star says that it isn’t an excuse for the depth of Penrith’s stunning recent form reversal.

“This is a team that over the last four seasons also have conceded on average 13 and a half points a game,” Corey Parker said on SEN.

“They are miles off, not just a fraction, absolutely miles off.

“11 players played tonight that played in last year’s grand final, 11.

“That is no excuse, absolutely none at all. So, something has gone amiss.”

While the Panthers are struggling defensively, things aren’t much better with ball in hand.

Penrith have never had to be prolific scorers in years past due to their stellar defence, but with that side of the ball letting them down this season, plenty of points are now required.

Six rounds into the season and the Panthers’ attack has been solid without being great (22ppg) which hasn’t been nearly enough.

The loss of Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris have been felt by the Panthers.Source: Getty Images

Against the Dolphins though, the Nathan Cleary-led Panthers struggled to take advantage of several terrific opportunities.

Despite the lopsided scoreline the Dolphins’ way, Penrith had 50 tackles inside the opposition 20 but yet, could only record 12 points.

That was more than double the Dolphins’ figure of 23 tackles in opposition 20.

NRL great Cooper Cronk couldn’t believe what he was seeing from the Panthers.

“They just look clunky Penrith,” Cronk said in commentary.

“There are multiple times where people are out of position, the ball gets played back inside and they’re running across field with no real forward momentum at all.”

Fox League’s Andrew Voss noted the stark difference in red zone opportunities.

“Look at that stat. Penrith, with Cleary and Edwards on deck, have been tackled in red zone 32 times,” Voss said early in the second half.

“If that was anytime in the last four years, the scoreboard is flipped over to 24-6 in favour of Penrith,” Cronk responded.

“With that much possession in the red zone, Penrith should be scoring more points.”

Any other team in the NRL would be written off in this position, but recent history means the Panthers are given the benefit of the doubt.

They deserve to be, especially with all the star power on their roster, but on current form Penrith won’t go close to the top eight.



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