Every scenario in NFL’s wild race to playoffs… including do-or-die reality for contender

The final week of the NFL regular season is upon us and nine of a possible 14 playoff teams have booked their ticket to the postseason.

There are many scenarios that could unfold as 11 teams fight for the final five spots up for grabs.

Strangely, the Buffalo Bills could either win the AFC East or miss the postseason completely while there are two three-team shootouts for two of the league’s eight division titles.

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Additionally, there are many teams out of the playoff hunt who are already looking towards the 2024 draft and a loss this weekend could see them secure a higher selection in a strong rookie class. In other words, the fans of teams such as Washington, New England and Arizona may be cheering for a loss.

Read on for all the Week 18 playoff and draft implications.

AFC EAST

The Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins will play off for the AFC East title in the final regular season timeslot (12:20pm Monday AEDT). The 11-6 Dolphins are assured of a playoff spot and will end up with one of the three AFC wildcards if they lose to the Bills. Buffalo meanwhile may need to win to make the postseason at all if two results happen earlier in the day. If Pittsburgh defeat an undermanned Baltimore team AND Jacksonville beat Tennessee, then Buffalo will either finish second in the conference and get a road playoff game as the AFC East winner or miss the postseason completely. A truly bizarre set of circumstances. If either Jacksonville or Pittsburgh, than the Bills will know going into the Miami clash whether they are assured a playoff spot or not. On the other end of the spectrum, the New York Jets and New England Patriots will battle for pride. If the Patriots lose, they will be assured of a top three selection in the 2024 draft. The Jets meanwhile are currently 8th in the draft order, and whatever happens, they are looking at a pick between 6th-10th.

AFC NORTH

Could be the only division in the NFL with three teams represented in the postseason. The Baltimore Ravens will likely rest troops against the Pittsburgh Steelers considering they’ve clinched the AFC no.1 seed and a first round bye. If they do, that has implications on teams like the Bills, Texans and Colts, who would love to see the Steelers lose. Pittsburgh will progress with a win plus a Bills loss OR a win plus a Jaguars loss OR a win plus a Texans-Colts tie OR a Jaguars loss plus a Broncos win plus the Texans-Colts ending up in a tie. Cleveland Browns (11-5) take on the Cincinnati Bengals in one of the least important games of the weekend when it comes to final standings as the Browns are locked into the 5th seed. Cincy will likely draft anywhere from 12th to 18th.

AFC SOUTH

A three-way battle will take place in week 18 for the division. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are all 9-7. The Jaguars will be crowned AFC South victors if they handle the Tennessee Titans or with a tie between the Texans-Colts. If the Jaguars lose, the winner of the division will be whoever is successful between the Texans-Colts. Jacksonville will have the benefit of knowing the result before they play, with Houston and Indy to clash on Sunday (AEDT). The Jaguars can still make the playoffs with a loss, but will need the Steelers to lose plus the Broncos to lose plus the Texans-Colts not to end up in a tie.

AFC WEST

The Kansas City Chiefs are in a bit of slump but are lucky they are in a weak division. They’ll end up with the third seed and the only team in the AFC West to make the postseason. The Los Angeles Chargers can finish with a top five pick in the draft with a loss to the Chiefs. The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos face off in the other AFC West match up, with both teams expected to finish the season with a draft pick in the 10-15 range. Both teams, Denver especially, could look to draft their QB of the future in the first round.

OUR PREDICTED AFC STANDINGS/1ST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

1. Baltimore Ravens (AFC North winner)

2. Buffalo Bills (AFC East winner)

3. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West winner)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South winner)

5. Cleveland Browns (wildcard)

6. Miami Dolphins (wildcard)

7. Houston Texans (wildcard)

Baltimore – bye

Houston @ Buffalo

Miami @ Kansas City

Cleveland @ Jacksonville

NFC EAST

The Dallas Cowboys are heavily favoured to topple the Washington Commanders in Week 18, and if they do so, they’ll clinch the NFC East. Even if they don’t, Dallas will win the division with a Philadelphia Eagles loss to the New York Giants. Of course, if Philly win and Dallas lose, the Eagles are NFC East champions for the second year running. The Commanders currently hold the second pick and a loss would confirm that draft position. A Giants loss to the Eagles would mean Big Blue will have a top five pick in 2024.

NFC NORTH

The Detroit Lions are guaranteed their first home playoff game in over 20 years by taking out the NFC North. They play the Minnesota Vikings, who need to win and plenty of help to earn a wildcard. The Vikings will progress with a win plus a Packers loss plus a Buccaneers loss plus a Seahawks loss OR a win plus a Packers loss plus a Seahawks loss plus a Saints loss. The Chicago Bears have been eliminated from the race, but would love to play spoiler and knock old rivals, the Green Bay Packers out of contention. Green Bay controls their own destiny, so would end up with a wildcard by winning, but if they lose, can make it with a Vikings loss plus a Seahawks loss plus a Saints loss OR a Vikings loss, a Seahawks loss plus a Buccaneers loss. The Bears are officially on the clock as they currently have the first overall pick of the draft via the Carolina Panthers, who traded it as part of the deal to land the no. 1 pick in 2023 (Bryce Young). With their own selection, the Bears will be assured of a top ten pick if they lose to the Packers.

NFC SOUTH

Three of the four teams are left in contention for arguably the ‘league’s worst division’. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will like their chances to clinch the division on Monday morning as they face the 2-14 Carolina Panthers. A loss would knock them out of contention but if they tie with the Panthers and a couple of other results go their way, a wildcard is in their future. Remembering though, there have been no tied games at all this season so fans shouldn’t be relying on that. The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will be playing at the same time as the Bucs with the Falcons’ only hope of progressing to the postseason is a win and a Bucs loss. If that occurs, Atlanta are the NFC South champions. They cannot earn a wildcard though, unlike the Saints. If New Orleans wins and Tampa Bay doesn’t, the Saints win the division but if New Orleans and Tampa both win, the Saints can only clinch a wildcard if the Seahawks lose and the Packers lose.

NFC WEST

At least two teams in this division are heading to the postseason – the no. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams, who are guaranteed a wildcard spot. The Seattle Seahawks will need to beat the Arizona Cardinals and hope the Packers lose to the Bears to be a chance of snaring a wildcard. The Cardinals meanwhile are in the running for the second overall pick, but would need to lose and for the Commanders and Patriots to win their respective games in Week 18 for that to happen.

OUR PREDICTED AFC STANDINGS/1ST ROUND PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

1. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West winner)

2. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East winner)

3. Detroit Lions (NFC North winner)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South winner)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (wildcard)

6. LA Rams (wildcard)

7. Seattle Seahawks (wildcard)

San Francisco – bye

Seattle @ Dallas

LA Rams @ Detroit

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay