Explained: Every title scenario for thrilling Supercars finale as ‘gloves-off’ Adelaide duel looms

With 11 rounds and 22 races down, the storied streets of Adelaide will decide the 2024 Supercars championship.

Just two contenders remain.

Will Brown stands on the cusp of history. The 26-year-old has been almost flawless in his first campaign for Triple Eight, having never looked back after taking the lead of the championship at the end of the first weekend in Bathurst.

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Teammate Broc Feeney hopes to force Brown to relinquish his points lead for the first time all season.

Feeney is in his third year of main-game competition and is the Triple Eight incumbent. He’s won the most races of any driver this season, but the relentless consistency of his new teammate sees him arrive in Adelaide down on points and very much on the back foot.

Drivers championship

1. Will Brown: 2772 points

2. Broc Feeney: 2592 points (-180 points)

“It’s great to be in the championship lead but also in the hunt going into the last round,” Brown said.

“It’s the same focus each weekend — no mistakes — and we’ll see what happens in Adelaide.

“I’m sure the gloves will come off a little bit in Adelaide and we’ll both try and race as hard as we can. We’ll make sure we don’t run into each other, but it’s exciting versing him for the championship going into the last one.”

THE PERMUTATIONS

There are 300 points still to win this season, and with 150 points available on each day, Feeney will face his first match point on Saturday.

It’s imperative not only that he finish ahead of his teammate but that he outscore him by at least 30 points.

With five wins to Brown’s four, Feeney can stay alive on Saturday and win the title on Sunday if points are tied.

Saturday title permutations

Brown has several paths to the championship on Saturday.

If he finishes on the podium on Saturday, his championship is assured regardless of Feeney’s finishing position.

Brown will also win if he finishes:

– fourth or fifth with Feeney second or lower;

– sixth with Feeney third or lower;

– seventh with Feeney fourth or lower;

– eighth or ninth with Feeney fifth or lower;

– 10th with Feeney sixth or lower;

– 11th or 12th with Feeney seventh or lower;

– 13th or 14th with Feeney eighth or lower;

– 15th or 16th with Feeney ninth or lower;

– 17th or 18th with Feeney 10th or lower;

– 19th or 20th with Feeney 11th or lower;

– 21st with Feeney 12th or lower;

– 22nd with Feeney 13th or lower;

– 23rd with Feeney 14th or lower; or

– 24th and last with Feeney 15th or lower.

Brown will win the title if he finishes the race and Feeney finishes 15th or lower.

Feeney’s mission to keep the championship alive is commensurately narrower. To fight for the championship Sunday he must finish:

– first with Brown fourth or lower;

– second with Brown sixth or lower;

– third with Brown seventh or lower;

– fourth with Brown eighth or lower;

– fifth with Brown 10th or lower;

– sixth with Brown 11th or lower;

– seventh with Brown 13th or lower;

– eighth with Brown 15th or lower;

– ninth with Brown 17th or lower;

– 10th with Brown 19th or lower;

– 11th with Brown 21st or lower;

– 12th with Brown 22nd or lower;

– 13th with Brown 23rd or lower; or

– 14th with Brown 24th and last.

Sunday title permutations

The weekend combination is more complicated to distil into finishing positions, but the maths is simple.

Brown must score at least 121 points across both races to guarantee himself the championship regardless of Feeney’s results.

What that looks like on paper is a pair of 14th-plcae finishes, which would earn him 126 points.

He could also afford to finish 14th and 15th, for 123 points.

Even if Feeney were to collect the full 300 points for a pair of wins, Brown would emerge victorious by a handful of points.

Really Feeney needs Brown to fail to finish one of the weekend’s race, which he’ll then need to win to inflict maximum damage and give himself a realistic chance at the championship.

But the likelihood of that is slim. Both Triple Eight drivers enjoy a perfect finishing record this season so far, with pristine mechanical reliability and few incidents to speak of.

Both drivers are clean in combat, and Brown will know he can clinch the championship without needing to take any risks this weekend, further reducing the chance of a costly error in his teammate’s favour.

But even a big mistake would be fatal for Brown. The points system in Supercars rewards finishing, meaning even 20th-place finish on Saturday would leave Brown defending a comfortable advantage of at least 75 points heading into Sunday.

“It’s Will’s to lose,” Feeney told the Drivers Only podcast. “It’s not really mine to win at the moment.

“I’m a very long shot, but I’m one where it’s not over until it’s over.

“It’s 180 points, it’s [more than] a race.”

FORM IS AGAINST FEENEY

The mountain is steep for Feeney, and putting the gradient into the context of the season makes it look only more acute.

To win the title Feeney must outscore Brown by an average of 90 points per race. Neither he nor Brown has outscored the other by such a margin at any race this season.

But even the considerably more achievable goal of keeping the title fight alive is a long-odds proposition.

Feeney has outscored Brown by 30 points or more only three times all season.

On Sunday in Townsville he recorded his most profitable day of the season relative to his teammate, gaining back 63 points after Brown’s first-lap crash.

On Saturday in Tasmania he finished third while Brown recovered to seventh after having been knocked out of qualifying 15th thanks to an unfortunate red flag, shrinking the margin by 33 points.

It was a similar story on Saturday on the Gold Coast, where Feeney again finished third ahead of Brown in seventh after the title leader suffered a qualifying shocker, reducing the gap by 33 points.

It therefore goes without saying that Feeney has never got close to having outscored his teammate by 180 points over an entire round, the closest being his dominant weekend in Darwin, when he took a total of 33 points out of Brown’s advantage.

The opposite is largely true for Brown, however.

On average he’s outscored Feeney by 7.7 points per race and 15.5 points per round.

He’s enjoyed a handful of highly productive races, including a swing of 42 points on Saturday in Taupō, 33 points on Sunday in Perth and on Saturday in Townsville, 57 points on Sunday in Sydney and, crucially, 78 points on Sunday in Tasmania.

While he’s never got close to beating him by 180 points over one weekend, he has a history of doing significantly greater damage round by round, having three times outscored Feeney by at least 30 points over a full event: in Taupō (54 points), Perth (60 points), Sydney (75 points) and Tasmania (45 points).

It all underlines the massive task Feeney faces this weekend — and the remarkable turnaround it would be if he manages to clinch the championship in Adelaide.