Explained: Why Eagles are holding firm on Pick 1… and what it might take to persuade them

The AFL trade period might’ve finished just over one week ago, but the biggest and most intriguing deal of the year could still be yet to come.

And if a blockbuster trade involving Pick 1 – and, subsequently, first rights to powerful 185cm Bendigo Pioneers prospect Harley Reid – does eventuate, West Coast will almost certainly keep the footy world waiting until November 20 to strike the deal.

The Eagles still hold Pick 1, despite receiving several offers from rival clubs during the recent 10-day window. Those trade requests came from North Melbourne and Hawthorn, while Melbourne had also been linked to a play for the prized selection.

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Draft selections can still be swapped over the next month. A window to trade picks officially opened on Monday and will close on Friday November 10, while clubs can also trade picks live on draft night.

As reported by AFL Media on Wednesday, the Eagles have rejected the latest two offers for their first selection, which came from North Melbourne and Melbourne respectively.

The Kangaroos offered West Coast their Pick 2, as well as two of their later first-round picks — they hold Picks 15, 17 and 18 — in exchange for Picks 1 and 23 from the Eagles. That deal was denied by West Coast.

The Demons, who traded up in the order during this month’s AFL exchange period, also offered the Eagles their two first-round selections (Picks 6 and 11), as well as Pick 42 and their future first-rounder in exchange for Pick 1. That deal was denied too.

But the sense among draft sources spoken to by foxfooty.com.au on Thursday is that the Kangaroos and Demons’ offers are getting closer to the mark – and more reflective of what a possible deal could look like.

The reality is for the Eagles – who’ve always been open to both keeping and dealing Pick 1 – there’s nothing to gain by trading their top selection now, even if they like the proposed deal and believe it’s fair. Ultimately, why lodge the paperwork now when you can wait until draft night and potentially get a better offer from a rival club prepared to give more than what they would in late October?

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The Eagles will reportedly not entertain a deal with North Melbourne unless it involves Picks 2 and 3. As pointed out by the Herald Sun’s Jay Clark on Wednesday night, it’s rare for clubs to hold so many picks in the teens come draft night. Only once in the past 10 years has a taken at least three players with picks between 11 and 20 — and that was in 2020 when the Giants selected Tanner Bruhn (Pick 12), Conor Stone (Pick 15) and Ryan Angwin (Pick 18).

But from a Kangaroos perspective, giving up those two selections for Pick 1 would be a significant gamble, for this year’s top six open draft players – Reid, Colby McKercher, Zane Duursma, Daniel Curtin, Nick Watson and Ryley Sanders – are considered a class above the rest. Plus moving from Picks 2 and 3 to Picks 1 and 15 – the latter would likely be closer to Pick 20 after academy and father-son bids – would be bold, even though Reid is widely rated as this year’s top prospect.

But the fact North Melbourne this week was prepared to up its initial offer to West Coast – which was, before the Zac Fisher, Dylan Stephens and Suns selection swap trades, Picks 15, 18, 21 and a future end-of-first-round selection for Pick 1 – suggests the Kangaroos remain keen.

And it’s highly unlikely it’ll be the Roos’ final offer.

The Roos are keen on using Picks 15, 17 and 18 to get higher up the order. So one option for them could be to package up some of those late first-rounders and make a play for Geelong’s Pick 8, which is on the table for the right price – although sources believe it’s a high price. Would Picks 3, 8 and a future first for Picks 1 and 23 back from West Coast be overs from a Roos perspective? Probably.

That deal, of course, would hinge on the Cats being willing to part with Pick 8 – and whether they’d be prepared to move from Pick 8 to two late first-rounders in this year’s draft remains doubtful. Adelaide, which holds Picks 10, 14 and 20 and might only use two selections in this year’s draft, would probably be more appealing to deal with.

There’s a sense among rival teams the Demons – unless they get mightily creative – might’ve played their best trade hand already.

The Dees were prepared to offer West Coast their two early first-round picks in this year’s draft, as well as their future first – and they still got rejected.

And if you’re West Coast, you’re clearly taking the Kangaroos’ future first over Melbourne’s – for that could give the Eagles two top-10 picks in next year’s draft should both they and the Roos finish in the bottom-half of the ladder next season.

The other trump card the Eagles have is Pick 23 – the selection North Melbourne tried to secure as part of its recent Pick 1 offer, but one West Coast will place a high value on.

That pick is the opening selection of this year’s second round, which is the first pick of the second night of the draft. It means the club holding that pick will, over a 24-hour period, receive ample juicy offers, for rivals will be keen to get ahead in the draft so they can have first rights to a draft prospect they’re keen on.

As it stands, clubs at the top of the order are preparing for two scenarios in late November: One where the Eagles have Pick 1 and one where the Kangaroos hold Pick 1. In both cases, Reid is taken at Pick 1, for West Coast will back in its system and development to retain the Tongala star.

Duursma would then likely head to North with one of those two top-three picks – if he doesn’t, he won’t get past Hawthorn – with the Roos to take either McKercher or Curtin with the other selection.

If Curtin isn’t taken by the Roos, clubs can envisage a scenario where he slides several few spots, considering the Hawks, Bulldogs, Demons and Giants are all unlikely to target a key defender with their first picks. Small forward Watson has been linked to the Hawks and Bulldogs, while the Dogs and Dees have shown ample interest in Sanders. And if Sanders isn’t available for the Demons, they’re more likely to look at explosive forward Nate Caddy, or even top-10 bolters Caleb Windsor and James Leake — or trade their pick with West Coast for the latter’s future first, allowing the Eagles to select local WA product Curtin after all.

For now, West Coast holds Pick 1 – aka “the golden ticket”, as Demons list boss Tim Lamb dubbed it last week. The hunt for that golden ticket, too, will only intensify over the next month.

And if Saints great Leigh Montagna was part of the Eagles’ recruiting team, he’d be parting with the pick 1.

“I think West Coast need a glut of early picks – and you’ve got to get them in a two or three-year window,” Montana told Fox Footy last week. “We’ve seen premiership teams build that six, seven, eight or nine guys of your core together. I think they have to get more draft picks in this draft rather than going to Pick 23 after taking the first pick.

“I think that’s why North Melbourne is in the box seat. If I’m North Melbourne, I’m OK holding onto Picks 2 and 3, I’m not going to give them both up. I’d put it in West Coast’s hands and say: ‘If you want more picks, you take 3 and 15 and 17, otherwise we’ll just go in with Pick 2 and 3’. Ball is in West Coast’s court.”