(Far Left) Mikey Madison as Ani in ‘Anora’. Photo: Courtesy of NEON. (Left Center) Adrien Brody in ‘The Brutalist’. Photo: A24. (Center Right) Ralph Fiennes stars as Cardinal Lawrence in director Edward Berger’s ‘Conclave’, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2024 All Rights Reserved. (Far Right) Zoe Saldaña in ‘Emilia Pérez’. Photo: Netflix.
The 97th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 2nd and with it will come the end of the 2025 award season.
Conan O’Brien is set to host for the first time, with scheduled presenters including last year’s winners Cillian Murphy, Emma Stone, Robert Downey Jr. and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, as well as former Oscar winners Halle Berry, Whoopi Goldberg, and Goldie Hawn.
Nominated films include two of the biggest blockbusters of last year, ‘Wicked’ and ‘Dune: Part Two,’ as well as critically acclaimed movies like ‘The Brutalist,’ ‘Anora,’ ‘Emilia Perez,’ and ‘A Complete Unknown.’
With early frontrunners for Best Picture like ‘The Brutalist’ and ‘Emilia Perez’ suffering major controversies, the award is now completely up for grabs with recent BAFTA and SAG winner ‘Conclave’ and PGA winner ‘Anora’ taking the lead.
And while Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin seem like locks for their respective supporting categories, Demi Moore still has some competition from BAFTA winner Mikey Madison and Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres in the Best Actress race, and Adrien Brody will have to fend off SAG Award winner Timothée Chalamet, if he wants to take home is second Best Actor Oscar.
Below are our predictions for who will win Oscars on Sunday at the 97th Academy Awards. We are only breaking down our predictions for the six major categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.
Let’s Begin!
BEST PICTURE
(L to R) Mikey Madison as Ani and Mark Eydelshteyn as Ivan in ‘Anora’. Photo: Courtesy of NEON.
Without a doubt, this has been one of the strangest award seasons of all time.
‘Wicked’ began the season as a possible frontrunner, but after losing the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy to ‘Emilia Perez’, quickly saw its chances fade away. ‘Perez’ and ‘The Brutalist’, after its Golden Globe win for Best Morion Picture – Drama, seemed to be the two films that would battle it out for Oscar gold, but both movies have since suffered controversies that have affected their campaigns.
‘The Brutalist’ was revealed to have used AI to adjust some of the audio performances of the cast, while ‘Emilia Perez’ has suffered from recently discovered problematic social media posts from star Karla Sofía Gascón, which has basically ended her Oscar campaign. While both films will likely still take home some Oscars, Best Picture now seems a long shot for both.
At this point, ‘Conclave’ and ‘Anora’ seem to now be the frontrunners for Best Picture. ‘Conclave’ won the BAFTA for Best Picture, as well as the Outstanding Performance by a Cast from the SAG Awards. But ‘Anora’ has won the all important Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures award from the Producers Guild, putting both films in a race for the Oscars.
But it is worth mentioning that the Academy uses a preferential ballot for Best Picture, meaning that it is not the film with the most #1 votes that wins, but instead the movie with the most #1 and #2 votes combined. So the question really isn’t who people will vote for in the top spot, but more, who will get the most #2’s, # 3’s and #4’s. With the PGA win, and Sean Baker likely taking Best Director (more on that below), I’m putting my money on ‘Anora’ to win the gold when its all said and done.
Nominees:
Who Will Win: ‘Anora’
Who Could Win: ‘Conclave’
Who Should Win: ‘Anora’
BEST DIRECTOR
(L to R) Sean Baker and DP Drew Daniels on the set of ‘Anora’. Photo: Courtesy of NEON.
Early in the season it looked like Brady Corbet for ‘The Brutalist’ or Jacques Audiard for ‘Emilia Pérez’ would be the frontrunners, that quickly changed after their films’ respective controversies.
‘Wicked’s Jon M. Chu won Best Director at the Critics Choice Awards, but unfortunately, he was not nominated in this category.
But after winning both Best Director at the Independent Spirit Awards and the all important Outstanding Directing – Feature Film from the Directors Guild, it now looks like Sean Baker is the frontrunner for Best Director.
Nominees:
Who Will Win: Sean Baker
Who Could Win: Brady Corbet
Who Should Win: Sean Baker
BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody in ‘The Brutalist’. Photo: A24.
Winning almost every major award this season, Adrien Brody is still the frontrunner to take home his second Oscar for ‘The Brutalist’.
However, while the AI controversy hasn’t completely destroyed his chances of winning, it has definitely hurt his otherwise perfect run, having recently lost Best Actor at the SAG Awards to Timothée Chalamet for ‘A Complete Unknown’. Also, keep in mind that the Oscars will be the first awards this season where the final votes will be tallied after ‘The Brutalist’s controversy took place.
Chalamet gave my favorite performance last year, and while I really hope he wins, I think Brody will still pull it out. Chalamet has only won SAG, and with Brody’s Golden Globe, BAFTA and Critics Choice wins, he’s definitely still the one to beat.
Nominees:
Who Will Win: Adrien Brody
Who Could Win: Timothée Chalamet
Who Should Win:Timothée Chalamet
BEST ACTRESS
Demi Moore in ‘The Substance’. Photo: Mubi.
Demi Moore has won every important award this season including Best Actress form the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG, which firmly puts her in the frontrunner position.
However, Mikey Madison has won Best Actress from BAFTA and the Independent Spirit Awards, so she is hot on Moore’s heals.
But its also important to note that the Oscar ceremony will be the first time all season that ‘I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres will be competing in the same category has Moore and Madison, and Torres did win Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes.
However, much like Karla Sofía Gascón, Torres has also had her fair share of controversy from questionable actions in her past, that could affect her chances of winning.
That said, I still think nostalgia for Moore’s overall career will give her the win on Sunday.
Nominees:
Who Will Win: Demi Moore
Who Could Win: Mikey Madison
Who Should Win: Mikey Madison
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
(L to R) Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg in ‘A Real Pain’. Photo Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures, © 2024 Searchlight Pictures All Rights Reserved.
This is the easiest category to predict. Kieran Culkin has dominated this category all season winning every Best Supporting Actor award along his way including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG, so I see no reason that his winning streak won’t continue all the way to the Oscar stage,
Nominees:
Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Who Could Win: Kieran Culkin
Who Should Win: Edward Norton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldaña as Emilia Pérez in ‘Emilia Pérez’. Photo: Netflix.
In another locked category, the ‘Emilia Pérez’ controversies do not seem to be affecting Zoe Saldaña’s chances of winning Best Supporting Actress. Saldaña has won every major award including Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG, and I think sh’e most likely to win again on Oscar night.
However, if ‘Conclave’ goes big and wins best picture, don’t count out a nostalgia win for veteran actress Isabella Rossellini … and we know the Oscars love to surprise us.
Nominees:
Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Who Could Win: Isabella Rossellini
Who Should Win: Ariana Grande
Don’t forget to watch the 97th Academy Award ceremony Sunday, March 2nd on ABC.
Conan O’Brien to host the 97th Academy Awards on ABC and Hulu March 2nd. Credit/Provider: ©A.M.P.A.S. Copyright: ©A.M.P.A.S.
Discussion about this post