Finals form guide: Every side rated… who holds key and stars who must lift as top-four shock revealed

Just eight teams remain in the hunt for the premiership.

Nearly all eight approach the finals in peak form, but every side still has a weakness that’s waiting to be exploited.

With help from Champion Data, Foxfooty.com.au examines every 2025 finalist’s biggest strength, weakness and ‘premiership profile’ rating — as well as one player who’s been running hot and another who’s out of form.

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While Adelaide and Geelong unsurprisingly sit first and second respectively for Core Four Profile rating, intriguingly, two finalists’ profiles sit 10th or worse in the competition — and one of the clubs finished in the top four.

ADELAIDE CROWS (1st, 18-5, 139.3%)

Past five games: 5-0 (defeated North Melbourne by 13 points, defeated Collingwood by three points, defeated West Coast by nine points, defeated Hawthorn by 14 points, defeated Port Adelaide by 98 points).

Strength: Defence

Ladder-leading Adelaide finished the home-and-away season a stingy second in the competition for points against, behind only Collingwood, with Josh Worrell and Mark Keane — first and second respectively for intercepts this year — earning rightful All-Australian squad nominations. But while they’re second for preventing scores, the Crows rank first in the AFL for chain-to-score against, first for defending ball movement, and first for pressure rating.

Weakness: Transition

One of the very few weaknesses to pinpoint has been the Crows’ occasional struggles moving the ball coast to coast. For the season, Matthew Nicks’ side sits a lowly 13th for ball movement. Further, Adelaide’s chain-to-score rate sits ninth, suggesting that the method of movement could do with some improvement in September.

Player in hot form: Mark Keane

Keane might have missed the final All-Australian cut after being selected to the squad of 44, but make no mistake, the Irishman has been one of the club’s biggest bright spots in a year where there have been plenty of them. He’s averaged an elite-rated 7.9 intercept possessions per game and is rarely beaten one-on-one. After sitting 133rd in Champion Data’s player ratings across the first 18 rounds, Keane has risen 55 spots to no.78 over the past six rounds.

Player who needs a lift: Daniel Curtin

The Rising Star fancy has had a quiet patch after asserting himself in year two. After a four-week stretch between Rounds 18-21 where he averaged 22.0 disposals per game, Curtin has gone eight, 14 and seven in his past three games going into September. He’s slipped 166 player rating spots in the past six weeks.

Core Four Profile ranking: 1st

— With the footy: 5th

— Without the footy: 1st

— Clearance: 4th

— Post-clearance: 1st

GEELONG (2nd, 17-6, 141.5%)

Past five games: 5-0 (defeated Richmond by 39 points, defeated Sydney by 43 points, defeated Essendon by 44 points, defeated Port Adelaide by 88 points, defeated North Melbourne by 101 points).

Strength: Punishment

There’s a reason the Cats enter their qualifying final in pristine form; their ability to punish the opposition off intercept is second to none. They’re first for intercept-to-score rate, meaning they’re almost unstoppable going the other way once they generate a turnover. And when the likes of Max Holmes and Gryan Miers are the main transition distributors, it’s no surprise. Geelong is also second for clearance-to-score rate, and third for half-back-to-score rate. We know how crucial it is to be able to capitalise from the half-back zone, and the Cats are among the sides that have it figured out, making them one of the scariest propositions this September.

Weakness: Leaky in transition

For all their strengths, the Cats also have a tendency to get opened up when the opposition gains possession at half back, particularly by the best sides. Against top-eight teams, Geelong ranks dead-last (!) for defending opponents’ half-back chains. So, while the Cats are a prolific half-back-to-score side themselves, they have problems defending it against the best teams. It’s absolutely a watch, especially when they concede more than 42 points from the opposition’s defensive half. When they do, they went 2-5 this year, compared to 15-1 when they allowed less than 42 points from that source.

Player in hot form: Shannon Neale

The emerging spearhead is blossoming alongside All-Australian skipper Jeremy Cameron. Neale, who’s averaged 3.5 goals per game in his past four games, has risen 170 spots in player rating over the past six weeks to no.22 overall.

Player who needs a lift: Lawson Humphries

Humphries has seen his form taper off a little bit in year two. He’s managed to eclipse 15 disposals just once in his past six games, going from 114th in player rating to 275th in the past six rounds — a slide of 161 spots.

Core Four Profile ranking: 2nd

— With the footy: 2nd

— Without the footy: 4th

— Clearance: 2nd

— Post-clearance: 4th

BRISBANE LIONS (3rd, 16-6-1, 114.2%)

Past five games: 3-2 (defeated Hawthorn by 10 points, defeated by 57 points, lost to Sydney by two points, defeated Collingwood by 27 points, lost to Gold Coast by 66 points).

Strength: Defence

Crucially, against top-eight teams, the Lions are first for intercept-to-score against, and second for score-per-inside-50 against. It’s no surprise the reigning premiers have notched the most wins — seven — against top-eight opposition this year.

Weakness: Efficiency

Brisbane was an offensive juggernaut after the bye last year, but it’s been a concerningly dissimilar story in 2025. In 2024, Brisbane was first in the AFL post-bye for score-per-inside-50 rate as it stormed to a premiership triumph. But this year post-bye, the Lions have sat just 12th in the same metric, suggesting they haven’t been able to find the same connection piece going forward, with Joe Daniher no longer in the mix. In a shock, despite finishing third, the Lions’ Core Four Profile rates a staggering 12th in the competition.

Player in hot form: Josh Dunkley

He doesn’t always get the plaudits he deserves, but Dunkley is one of the hardest-working stoppage players in the competition, and his reputation for quelling opposition stars speaks for itself. In the past six weeks, he’s risen 110 spots in player rating to no.35 overall after sitting 145th over the first 18 rounds of the season.

Player who needs a lift: Will Ashcroft

He’s not the name that most would’ve expected to see here, but Ashcroft’s performance has plummeted in recent weeks, according to Champion Data’s metrics. He’s dipped 185 player rating spots to no.249 overall in the past six-week span. Lachie Neale might be on the cusp of a return, but the Lions also need their Norm Smith medallist to again have an impactful September.

Core Four Profile ranking: 12th

— With the footy: 9th

— Without the footy: 7th

— Clearance: 10th

— Post-clearance: 12th

COLLINGWOOD (4th, 16-7, 122.4%)

Past five games: 2-3 (defeated Melbourne by six points, lost to Adelaide by three points, lost to Hawthorn by 64 points, lost to Brisbane by 27 points, defeated Richmond by 36 points).

Strength: Defence

Defending their goals has been the Magpies’ strength all season long, and it’s remained a strong suit even throughout their poor patch of overall form to close the regular season. Collingwood finished first in the competition for points against, second for score-per-inside-50 against, and first for defending turnover — all crucial metrics in terms of winning the premiership. There’s been no better side without the footy this year than Craig McRae’s side. The Pies are also first for preventing opposition shots on goal and second for limiting opposition chain-to-score.

Weakness: Punishment

This has been Collingwood’s particularly sore point throughout a stretch that saw it lose three consecutive games going into Round 24. Over the past six rounds, the Pies have ranked 13th for intercept-to-score rate, 15th for clearance-to-score rate, and 13th for half-back-to-score rate. The final connection piece has lacked in recent times, and you’d have to think a large part of it goes back to personnel absences, with forward-half sparkplugs Bobby Hill and Beau McCreery each missing time.

Player in hot form: Isaac Quaynor

Despite receiving some criticism during Collingwood’s poor patch of recent form, Quaynor has risen 160 spots in player rating to no.72 over the past six weeks. The 25-year-old remains one of the most reliable mid-sized one-on-one defenders, and his teammates trust him with the ball in hand.

Player who needs a lift: Jamie Elliott

Elliott was overlooked for his maiden All-Australian selection, and he’s been limited in the past six weeks amid Collingwood’s middling form. Elliott has fallen 298 player rating spots over the past six weeks, having not managed to kick more than two goals in a game at any point in that time.

Core Four Profile ranking: 7th

— With the footy: 6th

— Without the footy: 3rd

— Clearance: 10th

— Post-clearance: 13th

GWS GIANTS (5th, 16-7, 115.3%)

Past five games: 4-1 (defeated St Kilda by 11 points, defeated Gold Coast by 35 points, defeated North Melbourne by 54 points, lost to Western Bulldogs by 88 points, defeated Sydney by 44 points).

Strength: Form vs. top sides

Something about playing the cream of the crop brings out the best in these Giants. They’re a league-best 6-3 this year against top-eight teams, so it’s a good thing they’ll be playing the best in September. Against top-eight opposition, the Giants have this year ranked first in the competition for intercept-to-score rate and for half-back-to-score rate, and have ranked second for score-per-inside-50 rate.

Weakness: Defending turnover

Because of the surge-forward style of game the Giants play, they have a tendency to leave themselves exposed when the opposition generates a turnover and rebounds. GWS ranks last among finalists and 10th in the competition for defending intercepts.

Player in hot form: Toby Greene

We saw his heroics late in the Giants’ Round 24 win over St Kilda, and he’d been in very good nick in the lead-up to that match. Greene, in the past six weeks, has risen 133 player ratings spots to a prestigious no.10 overall.

Player who needs a lift: Lachie Ash

Ash missed out on All-Australian selection after making the squad, and his omission might have been due to his quiet finish to the home-and-away campaign. Over the first 18 rounds of the season, Ash was, according to Champion Data’s ratings system, the no.7 player in the competition. But over the past six-week period to close the regular season, he’s dipped 79 spots to no.86.

Core Four Profile ranking: 6th

— With the footy: 3rd

— Without the footy: 11th

— Clearance: 6th

— Post-clearance: 8th

FREMANTLE (6th, 16-7, 109.0%)

Past five games: 4-1 (defeated Western Bulldogs by 15 points, lost to Brisbane by 57 points, defeated Port Adelaide by six points, defeated Carlton by 27 points, defeated West Coast by 49 points).

Strength: Defence

Fremantle has been a stout unit all year long, but it’s dazzled particularly since Round 10. From that point in the season onwards, the Dockers have ranked fifth for points against, fifth for score-per-inside-50 against, fifth for chain-to-score against, and second for defending ball movement. The unit’s performance has played a prominent role in forging a 5-3 record against top-eight teams — good for third-best in the AFL this year.

Weakness: Punishment

Much is talked about Fremantle’s stagnant ball movement at certain points — its defensive-50-to-inside-50 rate sits second-worst among finalists — but it’s also their punishment that’s a question mark going into September. Since Round 10, the Dockers have sat just 10th for intercept-to-score rate and clearance-to-score rate, indicating middling turnover-punishment and stoppage profiles.

Player in hot form: Patrick Voss

Ace, wildcard, X-factor. Whatever you want to call it, this man could well be it for Justin Longmuir’s side this September. Throughout the first 18 rounds of the season, Voss was ranked a lowly 291st in player rating, but such has been his match impact over the past six weeks, he’s risen a whopping 249 spots to no.42 overall heading into the finals.

Player who needs a lift: Shai Bolton

Bolton was revered as a recruit earlier in the season, and for good reason, as he sat 81st overall for player rating over the first 18 rounds. However, across the past six weeks, he’s plummeted 189 spots to no.270 overall. He’s kicked just five combined goals in that period of time.

Core Four Profile ranking: 10th

— With the footy: 7th

— Without the footy: 6th

— Clearance: 8th

— Post-clearance: 14th

GOLD COAST SUNS (7th, 15-8, 124.9%)

Past five games: 3-2 (defeated Essendon by 95 points, lost to Port Adelaide by four points, lost to GWS by 35 points, defeated Carlton by 19 points, defeated Richmond by 84 points).

Strength: Stoppage

With All-Australians Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell on the front line, it’s no surprise the Suns are one of the best sides at stoppage. It’s their one-wood. Gold Coast finished the regular season sitting third for points-from-clearance differential, fourth for contested possession differential, and second for basic clearance differential. When things get dicey in September, this is the part of the game that coach Damien Hardwick will look to lean on.

Weakness: Punishment vs. the best

While the Suns have shown their turnover-scoring capability — sitting seventh for points from turnover and third for time spent in their forward half — they’ve struggled to do it against the top sides. Against this year’s finalists, Gold Coast is 17th for intercept-to-score rate, 13th for half-back-to-score rate, and 15th for score-per-inside-50 rate.

Player in hot form: Ben King

The spearhead booted 62 goals to finish second in the Coleman Medal race, earning selection to the All-Australian squad of 44. Over the past six weeks, he’s risen 135 player ratings spots to no.21 overall, and he’ll be leant on heavily for scoring power by these Suns in September.

Player who needs a lift: Ben Long

There were some eyebrows raised when the ex-Saint was selected to the All-Australian squad, and the past six weeks haven’t been his best patch in what’s been a stellar year. He’s gone -174 in player rating over the past six-week span.

Core Four Profile ranking: 5th

— With the footy: 4th

— Without the footy: 7th

— Clearance: 3rd

— Post-clearance: 10th

HAWTHORN (8th, 15-8, 120.9%)

Past five games: 3-2 (lost to Brisbane by 10 points, defeated Melbourne by 36 points, defeated Collingwood by 64 points, lost to Adelaide by 14 points, defeated Carlton by 24 points).

Strength: Defence

The back half has been a strong suit for the Hawks all season long, highlighted by off-season recruit Josh Battle’s All-Australian nod this week. Alongside fellow 2024 addition Tom Barrass, the brown and gold have been supreme stoppers, ranking fifth for intercept-to-score against, third for clearance-to-score against, and fifth for score-per-inside-50 against.

Weakness: Punishment

But like a few of this year’s finalists, fine-tuning their turnover profile will go a long way to these Hawks making a premiership push. This year, Sam Mitchell’s side has ranked just 12th for intercept-to-score and 11th for half-back-to-score. It’s an area these Hawks will need to improve in, particularly as they sit ninth this year for their 3-7 record against top-eight teams.

Player in hot form: Massimo D’Ambrosio

The smooth-moving, precise-kicker has risen 111 player ratings spots over the past six weeks, going from 186th to 75th in that time.

Player who needs a lift: Jai Newcombe

Another player who most wouldn’t have expected to see here, but Newcombe has fallen 138 in player ratings spots over the past six weeks. He eclipsed 25 possessions just once in that time span, having been a target for opposition teams. That attention won’t go away in September, so the Hawks will be hoping he can adapt and continue to be the stoppage power he’s become.

Core Four Profile ranking: 4th

— With the footy: 10th

— Without the footy: 2nd

— Clearance: 5th

— Post-clearance: 3rd