Four-horse Brownlow race broken down — and who wins as every three-vote game predicted

The 2024 Brownlow Medal looks set to be a four-horse race, barring a miraculous surge from an outsider.

One contender is chasing a record-equalling third Chas Brownlow award (and also defending last year’s title), another hunting his second in three years – while two superstars are searching for a maiden medal after their sensational seasons.

We take a look at the four favourites for this year’s title – including games expected to poll, the mystery games and what it all means for the final result. (All odds via Pointsbet.)

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For each player, we have categorised the relevant games for them into two categories – bank the three, and games that could go either way.

For a game to fit under the banner of ‘bank the three’, the player has performed significantly better than any other that game. It’s not an easy criteria to meet, but in the case they do, we’ll be very surprised if they don’t poll maximum votes for the match in question.

As for any clash that falls under the ‘games that could go either way’ umbrella, it’s self-explanatory – it could go either way. In some cases, a player will poll a deserved three votes for these matches. In other instances however, they may not poll at all – perhaps due to their team losing, or the umpires taking a liking for other teammates who played just as well – if not better.

*Betting odds correct as of 4pm Thursday, September 19 2024

PATRICK CRIPPS

Odds:$2.40

Bank the three

Round 6 W v GWS (39 disposals – 24 contested, 13 clearances, 11 score involvements)

Round 16 W v Richmond (40 disposals, 14 clearances, nine inside 50s, three goal assists, one goal)

Games that could go either way

Round 1 W v Richmond (31 disposals – 21 contested – seven intercepts, seven tackles)

Round 7 L v Geelong (29 disposals, eight clearances, eight inside 50s, two goals)

Round 9 W v Melbourne (35 disposals, seven clearances, one goal)

Round 11 W v Gold Coast (31 disposals, 13 clearances, one goal)

Round 12 W v Port Adelaide (22 disposals, 11 score involvements, two goals)

Round 15 W v Geelong (41 disposals, 14 clearances)

Round 17 L v GWS (33 disposals, 11 clearances, two goals)

Round 18 L v Western Bulldogs (28 disposals, 11 clearances, eight tackles, two goals)

Round 19 W v North Melbourne (29 disposals – 14 contested, nine clearances)

Round 21 L v Collingwood (30 disposals, nine inside 50s, 556m gained, one goal)

Round 23 W v West Coast (35 disposals, 12 score involvements, 10 clearances, eight inside 50s)

Round 24 L v St Kilda (30 disposals – 18 contested, nine tackles, eight clearances)

Verdict

The range on Brownlow night for Cripps is probably much larger than the other favourites – and it makes for a harder reading as to how he may poll on the night of nights. The Carlton captain was an honourable performer in losses, but the result may prevent him from polling maximum votes due to his side’s result. Additionally, teammates Sam Walsh and Tom De Koning may steal votes off him at crucial times throughout the count. He did however rack up 30 or more disposals 10 times throughout the home-and-away season; as well as double-digit clearances games seven times – meaning either way we’ll hear his name called plenty of times come Monday night. Historically – and rightly – a high poller on Brownlow night, Cripps will be right in the mix, right until the end in Round 24, where he could poll anywhere from zero to three votes.

NICK DAICOS

Odds: $2.60

Bank the three

Round 8 W v Carlton (32 disposals, seven clearances, 626m gained, two goals)

Round 9 W v West Coast (36 disposals, seven clearances, six inside 50s, one goal)

Round 10 W v Adelaide (41 disposals, 14 clearances, 543m gained)

Round 20 W v Richmond (42 disposals, 12 score involvements, 11 clearances, 613m gained)

Round 24 W v Melbourne (40 disposals, 11 marks, 10 inside 50s, 675m gained, two goals)

Games that could go either way

Opening Round L v GWS (34 disposals, 10 clearances, 663m gained, eight inside 50s, one goal)

Round 1 L v Sydney (37 disposals – 15 contested, seven clearances, one goal)

Round 3 W v Brisbane (30 disposals, 650m gained)

Round 6 W v Port Adelaide (30 disposals, eight clearances, eight inside 50s)

Round 11 D v Fremantle (35 disposals – 19 contested, 10 clearances, nine inside 50s)

Round 12 L v Western Bulldogs (32 disposals – 27 contested, 16 clearances, two goals)

Round 14 W v North Melbourne (29 disposals, three goal assists, two goals)

Round 16 L v Gold Coast (32 disposals, 691m gained, two goal assists, two goals)

Round 21 W v Carlton (28 disposals, eight inside 50s, seven clearances, one goal)

Round 23 W v Brisbane (25 disposals, two goals)

Verdict

Unlike his greatest competitor for the Brownlow this year, Daicos on face value has a few more games where he should have the three votes locked in. His ultra-high numbers game-by-game for the third year straight could set him up for his maiden Brownlow, and it’s hard to make a case to say he won’t win it. As previously mentioned, Cripps’ range is much larger than Nick’s, so with the Collingwood superstar – we (think we) know what we’re going to get come Monday night. If he can snag a few votes in honourable losses at the start of the season (namely Opening Round and Round 1), it might just be his night. And if the views of coaches are anything to go by, Daicos should also go well – having taken out the Coaches Award earlier this season over Cripps by four votes. Beyond the dead heat in betting markets, gut feel says Daicos is the favourite over Cripps – mostly based off foxfooty.com.au’s prediction that the Magpie could poll in a couple more games than the Blues skipper. And ironically, the Round 21 clash between the two heavyweights may just decide the eventual winner, with Cripps a strong shot at three votes despite losing, while Daicos’ 28 touches and a goal may see him earn one or two votes of his own.

LACHIE NEALE

Odds: $9

Bank the three

Round 17 W v Adelaide (36 disposals – 18 contested, 10 clearances, three goals)

Round 18 W v West Coast (34 disposals – 19 contested, 13 clearances, two goals)

Round 24 W v Essendon (40 disposals – 19 contested, 11 score involvements, one goal)

Games that could go either way

Round 3 L v Collingwood (35 disposals – 20 contested, 10 clearances, one goal)

Round 8 W v Gold Coast (34 disposals, nine marks, eight inside 50s, two goal assists)

Round 10 W v Richmond (36 disposals, 11 marks, nine inside 50s, six goal assists)

Round 13 W v Western Bulldogs (38 disposals, 10 clearances, two goals)

Round 15 W v Port Adelaide (37 disposals – 18 contested, 10 clearances, two goal assists)

Round 20 W v Gold Coast (35 disposals, 10 clearances, one goal)

Round 21 W v St Kilda (33 disposals, 13 clearances)

Verdict

The two-time Brownlow Medallist is scarily in the running to win a third this season – a feat that would leave him the first player to win three of the award since Ian Stewart in 1971. The 31-year-old got off to a slow start this season, but it was the second half of his year that really took off. His run home will come hard, and a Round 13 clash against the Western Bulldogs could set up his night. Neale had 38 disposals and two goals, but teammate Eric Hipwood kicked six of his own from 20 touches – which could prove tough to top in the eyes of some. Two three-vote games ‘locked’ in Round 17 and 18 will give him comfort, and Neale is also a red-hot shot at getting three more in Round 20 against the Suns – but genuinely anyone could poll at a maximum that game. Only last year did the four-time All-Australian poll better than everyone expected to take home his second medal – and history certainly suggests he catches the attention of umpires around the ball. Foxfooty.com.au doesn’t see him polling in as many games as the likes of Daicos and Cripps, but he’s a two-time winner for a reason!

MARCUS BONTEMPELLI

Odds: $13

Bank the three

Round 12 W v Collingwood (38 disposals, 10 clearances, nine tackles, two goals)

Round 14 W v Fremantle (30 disposals, 15 score involvements, 682m gained, three goals, three goal assists)

Round 16 W v North Melbourne (35 disposals – 20 contested, 11 clearances, 647m gained)

Round 21 W v Melbourne (33 disposals, 16 score involvements, nine inside 50s, two goals)

Games that could go either way

Round 2 W v Gold Coast (32 disposals – 19 contested, 11 clearances, two goals)

Round 4 L v Geelong (35 disposals, 10 tackles, 638m gained, one goal)

Round 6 W v St Kilda (24 disposals – seven intercepts, six tackles, three goals)

Round 8 L v Hawthorn (26 disposals, seven inside 50s, four goal assists, two goals)

Round 9 W v Richmond (32 disposals, 14 score involvements, 10 clearances, two goals)

Verdict

Another year, and another exceptional season of football has been played by Marcus Bontempelli. But will it give him his maiden Brownlow that he so greatly deserves? In short, he looks up against it. The 28-year-old was this year joined by Adam Treloar in the All-Australian team; a testament as to how well they played in 2024. But in turn, it could cost Bontempelli crucial votes, at crucial times. A perfect example is his side’s Round 9 match against Richmond; where as many as six players could register maximum votes. He could snag votes in Round 11, 23 and 24 for strong performances, but unfortunately the amount of uncertainty points towards another year where he narrowly misses out on the award. Either way, Bontempelli will poll well – but he would need a lot to go his way.