Clint Gutherson is proving an outstanding buy for the Dragons and a costly loss for the Eels. Ditto Terrell May, for Wests Tigers and the Roosters respectively.
That’s according to Fox Sports Lab’s rankings of players by position through five rounds of this NRL season, with key stats backing up what fans have witnessed thus far from veteran custodian Gutherson and powerhouse prop May.
Gutherson tops the fullback rankings, while May leads the middle forwards.
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Before we run through the positions and the current pecking order, here is how the rankings were reached.
Fox Sports Lab selected five of the most relevant stats per position; in some cases, two lesser but still-relevant stats were combined.
Players were given a percentile ranking based on performances so far this season; 100 is the maximum score, so across five stats, a player’s total score is therefore out of a possible 500.
Some notes.
While the stats selected are the most relevant, they don’t capture the full picture of a player’s performance; if different stats were included, the outcome would be different. Arguments could also be had about the weighting of certain stats, in terms of relative importance.
Stats aren’t infallible and produce different results to the ‘eye test’; busy players always fare better in statistical analysis, as opposed to lower-volume players who may otherwise be clearly superior footballers.
These points are best remembered when you reach the halves and hooker rankings — where there are some glaring inclusions, and omissions.
We have kept the rankings to the top 10, with notable ins and outs addressed.
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FULLBACKS
Stats used: Try involvements, run metres, tackles busts + offloads, errors per 100 possessions, attacking kick defusal percentage
1. Clint Gutherson (Dragons) — percentile ranking total 352
2. Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — total 273
3. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — total 270
4. Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — total 261
5. Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — total 236
6. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — total 233
7. James Tedesco (Roosters) — total 227
8. Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — total 214
9. Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — total 200
10. Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — total 190
— Gutherson has been the gold standard for try involvements (11) and a great addition to the Dragons, while Jye Gray has been a brilliant success story in Latrell Mitchell’s usual spot for South Sydney and currently leads the Dally M Medal count. Reece Walsh is a notable omission, largely due to making an error on nearly 10 per cent of his possessions, while Gutherson’s replacement at Parramatta — Isaiah Iongi — is still finding his feet.
WINGERS
Stats used: Try involvements, line break involvements, run metres, effective tackle percentage, errors per 100 possessions
1. Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — percentile ranking total 415
2. Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — total 394
3. Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — total 382
4. Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — total 344
5. Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — total 338
6. Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — total 326
7. Phillip Sami (Titans) — total 324
8. Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — total 321
=9. Zac Lomax (Eels) — total 309
=9. Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — total 309
— Tuipulotu has scored five tries from as many games and is belting out 163.5 metres per game in an exciting start for the Dragons. Hopoate has done a fine job while biding his time for a crack at fullback, running 205 metres per game. While a number of rep wingers feature here, notable omissions include Xavier Coates, Brian To’o, Selwyn Cobbo and Murray Taulagi.
CENTRES
Stats used: Try involvements, runs/line engagement, tackle busts + offloads, effective tackle percentage, errors per 100 possessions
1. Kayal Iro (Sharks) — percentile ranking total 430
2. Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — total 423
3. Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — total 352
4. Deine Mariner (Broncos) — total 317
5. Starford To’a (Wests Tigers) — total 305
6. Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — total 300
7. Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — total 297
8. Bradman Best (Knights) — total 292
9. Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — total 285
10. Matt Timoko (Raiders) — total 283
— Iro has scored five tries in an eye-catching start for the Sharks, while busting more than five tackles per game. Mariner is a notable inclusion, having initially been denied a spot in the Broncos side by fairytale veteran and fellow top-10er Shibasaki. The absence of Bulldogs champion Stephen Crichton shows pure stats aren’t everything; ditto former Dally M Medallist Jack Wighton’s presence at the foot of the list, though it does highlight his relatively modest start.
HALVES
Stats used: Try involvements, kick metres + forced dropouts, runs/line engagement, effective tackle percentage, errors per 100 possessions
1. Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — percentile ranking total 400
2. Daly Cherry-Evans (Sea Eagles) — total 394
3. Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) — total 376
4. Dylan Brown (Eels) — total 358
5. Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — total 321
6. Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — total 316
7. Lachlan Galvin (Wests Tigers) — total 305
=8. Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — total 303
=8. Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — total 303
10. Jamal Fogarty (Raiders) — total 300
— The eye test tells you that plenty of these guys belong here on form, and a few absolutely don’t. Hynes (9) and Brown (8) have had more try involvements than you might imagine and also get a bump by rating highly for their sturdy defence; headline-making veterans Cherry-Evans and Reynolds have meanwhile been in fine form with 16 and 12 try involvements respectively. Take your pick for superstars whose numbers don’t quite stack up yet in these stat categories after a handful of early-season games.
HOOKERS
Stats used: Try involvements, runs/line engagement, tackles, effective tackle percentage, errors per 100 possessions
1. Wayde Egan (Warriors) — percentile ranking total 453
2. Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — total 333
3. Tom Starling (Raiders) — total 327
=4. Blayke Brailey (Sharks) — total 300
=4. Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) — total 300
6. Connor Watson (Roosters) — total 287
7. Cory Paix (Broncos) — total 260
=8. Damien Cook (Dragons) — total 233
=8. Sam Verrills (Titans) — total 233
=10. Reed Mahoney (Bulldogs) — total 227
=10. Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — total 227
— Egan has made literally no errors, while pouring in 43.75 tackles per game alongside five try involvements for the season. The Warriors No.9 boasts the highest ranking total across the NRL thus far. Starling and Mamouzelos are notable early success stories, amid speculation over their ongoing job security, while Origin hookers Reece Robson and Harry Grant are just outside the top 10; again, stats only get you so far.
EDGE BACKROWERS
Stats used: Line break involvements, tackle busts + offloads, effective tackle percentage, errors per 100 possessions, efforts (runs + line engagements + supports + decoys)
1. Haumole Olakau’atu (Sea Eagles) — percentile ranking total 449
2. Angus Crichton (Roosters) — total 421
3. Eliesa Katoa (Storm) — total 402
4. Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — total 384
5. Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — total 376
6. Siua Wong (Roosters) — total 371
7. Max Plath (Dolphins) — total 369
8. Hudson Young (Raiders) — total 353
9. Beau Fermor (Titans) — total 351
10. Jordan Riki (Broncos) — total 347
— Manly powerhouse Olakau’atu heads a hot field here, with nine line break involvements so far this season alongside about six tackle busts per game. Nearly every eligible player here will be a decent chance of gaining Origin selection, with Preston (NSW) and Plath (QLD) among those in the running for debuts. Marata Niukore is one big name whose numbers are unbecoming, with just 11.25 efforts per game for the Warriors ranking him last overall in that stat category.
MIDDLE FORWARDS
Stats used: Tackle busts + offloads, tackles, effective tackle percentage, errors per 100 possessions, efforts (runs + line engagements + supports + decoys)
1. Terrell May (Wests Tigers) — percentile ranking total 433
2. Isaah Yeo (Panthers) — total 420
3. Adam Elliott (Knights) — total 406
4. James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — total 390
5. Payne Haas (Broncos) — total 382
6. Max King (Bulldogs) — total 376
7. Pat Carrigan (Broncos) — total 375
8. Jack de Belin (Dragons) — total 351
9. Addin Fonua-Blake (Sharks) — total 350
10. Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — total 349
— May is belting out 143.2 run metres per game for the Tigers, rubbing salt in the wound of the Roosters after his bizarre release by the club. He is rated a huge chance of a NSW Origin debut and rates behind only Penrith legend Isaah Yeo for effort plays per game (26.2 to 27.6 respectively). Fisher-Harris, Haas, Carrigan and Blake are marquee forwards among the top 10, while Horsburgh’s presence is a nod to his remarkable resurgence for Canberra, and King’s spot kudos for his work at the unbeaten Bulldogs.
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