Everything is on the line for the once seemingly invincible Collingwood in Saturday night’s blockbuster top four clash with Adelaide. And it could be a changing of the guard of the AFL’s heavyweights.
Just five weeks ago, these ultra experienced Magpies were two and a half games clear on top of the ladder and remained there as recently as at Round 21. They sat top two for 16 of the 23 rounds — or just under 70 per cent of the season — as hot premiership favourites.
Yet Collingwood has rapidly fallen in a slump, having dropped five of its past six games. Suddenly the third-placed Pies are clinging to a spot in the top four, with only percentage separating them to Fremantle, Brisbane just half a game back and a further three clubs a single game behind.
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This might well be Craig McRae’s biggest test yet.
The unsettled Pies have been hampered by constant personnel changes — partly by their own doing as part of a management plan. Since Round 18, they’ve used 31 players and only 14 have played every game as time is running out for McRae to find his optimal mix with just two games remaining until finals.
And with so much at stake, Collingwood is charged with a daunting trip to Adelaide Oval to face the ladder-leading Crows. It might make or break the Pies’ season and potentially determine their future planning with several veterans out of contract.
For there’s perhaps not been a game with more significance on the swing of a win or a loss.
Win and Collingwood will revive its premiership credentials and be beaming with confidence, while still a chance to make top two. Or the potential to finish third and play an ‘away’ MCG final against Geelong in the first week of the post-season. The form slump could become a distant memory and they’d be all systems go again for September.
But lose and you could almost rule out the Pies from flag contention (as brave as that sounds about a Craig McRae side). Not only would it extend their slump, but they’d be relying on other results and have to beat Melbourne in Round 24 to be a chance for top four. Not to mention the outside chance of missing the top eight altogether, and if nothing else, be limping into finals.
Saturday night might be the perfect challenge in a sense. What better opportunity to turn things around and make a grand statement than against the flag frontrunner in their own house? It’s the most backs to the wall situational imaginable.
And even if the Pies rarely travel, they do have a strong track record on the road including an AFL-best 71 per cent win rate at Adelaide Oval (10-4) in a venue that’s been a happy hunting ground for the black and white.
So which will it be? Too experienced and too good? Or too old and too slow?
It comes against a Crows outfit that’s produced a meteoric rise from outside the top eight into first place of the ladder in 2025.
However Collingwood has been a pesky thorn in Adelaide’s side it hasn’t been able to overcome over the last decade, with 10-straight losses to the Pies in a skid that dates back to 2016.
That includes Adelaide falling bitterly short in the clubs’ last five clashes, with defeats by just 10, four, two, one and five points respectively, so it’s not as though Nicks’ men haven’t played well in those matchups.
You know how keen the Crows would be to conquer those demons and make their own statement against a side they haven’t been able to overcome in front of their home fans as the club continue its charge to its first finals campaign since 2017.
And against one of the best teams in the competition in recent years as the Crows try to certify their status as a bona fide flag contender, if not the favourite.
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Saturday night is a chance for the emerging Crows to take the baton from the veteran Pies as the AFL’s top dog in an intriguing battle between two sides at either end of the spectrum. And who knows? Maybe it won’t be the last time these sides meet this season.
While Collingwood is in a rut and coming off its biggest loss of the season to Hawthorn, Adelaide legend Mark Ricciuto is expecting a response from McRae’s side.
“I would never underestimate Collingwood. They have so many good players and so many experienced players in that side and I’d be shocked if they dished up again what they dished up last week,” Ricciuto told foxfooty.com.au.
“They travel so well. I know they don’t do it often, but when they do it, they do it well. They play well at Adelaide Oval and Adelaide would be expecting them to be at their very best. If they are not, then so be it, but I am expecting Collingwood to bounce back.
“But if they don’t, then they have to be a little bit worried about what is going on. They will have some issues, so there is going to be a lot that comes out of this game.
“It is why everyone is so excited and nervous, because Adelaide are on the up, but they have not beaten Collingwood since 2016, and Collingwood have been up and are now in a bad patch.
“They are probably, in the back of their minds, really questioning whether they can bounce back. We will find out, probably pretty early in the contest, as to whether they are a chance to do it.
“Neither of these sides are going to give up and get blown off the park, but you are going to see lots of sparks in the first 10 to 15 minutes of the first quarter.”
In order to win, the Pies will need to improve in multiple areas and sharpen up at either end of the ground.
PIES WOES AT EITHER END OF GROUND
Defence was once the hallmark of Collingwood’s game.
Yet it’s dropped away in recent weeks, with dual premiership Kangaroo David King declaring he’d “never seen them so lost behind the ball” as in last week’s loss to the Hawks.
Having no Jeremy Howe in recent weeks hasn’t helped, while Billy Frampton only just returned from a stint on the sidelines. But their defensive woes seemingly run deeper than just personnel and extend to further up the ground and a lack of communication. Again, things that have usually been such a staple.
The Pies have actually improved from inside 50s against, sitting No. 6 in the first 18 rounds and No. 2 since. But they’ve dropped off a cliff in opposition goals per forward entries from No. 2 to No. 16 over the same period.
So Collingwood is conceding less inside 50s, yet bleeding more heavily as this once impenetrable backline suddenly looks exposed.
The equation is simple for King. If they can’t turn around their defensive issues, they can’t compete in September.
“If you can’t defend, you can’t win it. It’s as simple as that,” King said on Fox Footy’s The First Crack.
“I’ve never seen them as poor with the fundamentals and as poor with the leadership behind the ball.
“The bottom line is, their profile right now is that of an also ran. Craig McRae was angry in the post-match (after the Hawthorn loss) because he knows it and he can see it. All this work that’s gone in to get them two and a half games clear on top and were only conceding 68 points on average – the best in the competition – and now the last five weeks they’re 10th.
“We talk about defence so often, because if you cannot thwart and stop the best opposition you’re coming up against in finals, you’re just going to defend all day and bleed all day.
“If this is them, then they are gone. Because they’ll get picked apart by the better teams … I’ve never seen them so lost behind the ball.”
King thinks it’s “too flippant” to say Howe “fixes” their defensive woes, putting it on their other senior players like recruits Harry Perryman and Dan Houston, who’s been woefully out of form, to step up.
“Perryman was brought to this club to actually stand up and be an organiser. Houston is a senior player, play like a senior player. The numbers are alarming; I don’t know where he’s at,” the Roos great added.
“He’s just chipping the ball or going for kicks he really hasn’t done over the last few years, I never saw him do that at Port Adelaide. It’d be a dart, a 20m spike and get there in a hurry.
“He looks heavy, he looks slow, he looks like he’s lost his athleticism in an incredibly short space of time.
“I’m at a loss as to where they’re at. Is it a motivational issue? Does it mean enough to them right now? You can go wherever you want. But the bottom line is, they are leaking so easily to the point where they cannot compete with the good teams. And if can’t defend, you can’t win.”
Though Adelaide has multiple weapons in attack, Izak Rankine poses a significant matchup problem for the Pies, according to King.
Isaac Quaynor is the obvious choice to draw the Rankine assignment, while Brayden Maynard could be another option. But King had fears that Rankine could cause headaches in the Pies coaches box.
“Who are they going to put on Izak Rankine?,” King posed.
“I can’t wait to watch which magnet goes to Izak Rankine. Is this the problem they’ve got? They should have three options, but I don’t reckon they have.
“I’d love to see Isaac Quaynor put his hand up and say: ‘I’ll do the job for you’. Because he’s not an interceptor or score involvement player. Well what are you?”
While there’s clear problems with the Pies’ defence, there’s also concerns with their forward connection and chemistry up forward.
Even if it wasn’t as much of a strength earlier this season, Collingwood was ranked No. 5 in points for from Rounds 0-17, and crucially, No. 2 in scores per inside 50 in a showing of efficiency. But they’ve dropped to No. 13 and No. 15 respectively since in both areas in “alarming numbers,” as put by dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna.
It included the Pies only losing the inside 50 count to Hawthorn by six, yet getting belted by 64 points loss in a testament to to how much Collingwood lacked connection going into attack.
“This is what held them in good stead, their ability to score and how efficient they were going inside 50. Watching the (Hawks) game I’m thinking: ‘What’s happened? Why are they on a different page?’ This is a team that have played a lot of footy together and a lot of understanding of what they are trying to do,” Montagna said on The First Crack.
“What was interesting was when you looked at the way they structured up in front of the ball, they played six forwards, but were all on top of each other all night.
“I’m not sure what’s happened. But they’ve lost connection and chemistry and it looks like their confidence is really struggling – both behind the ball and in front of the ball.
“I just don’t know if they have enough time to get it back.”
King posed whether they should explore moving Nick Daicos to half back for an injection of “energy, speed and quality” and to “give them a different type of forward entry.”
To which Montagna responded: “That’s the big talking point, where can you maximise Nick Daicos? I showed a few weeks ago he was starting to play more half back, and that looked good. He’s gone back to the middle though.
“Can Jordan De Goey go back to the midfield? I don’t like the mix of Ned Long, Tom Mitchell, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom – that’s not going to work in the finals, the four of them playing in the same midfield.
“They’ve got to change up the (midfield) mix.”
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Collingwood’s floundering, Howe-less defence will be seriously tested by the Crows’ potent forward line, with Montagna saying the Pies will need to bring their “absolute elite pressure game to give themselves a chance.”
In particular against Adelaide’s triple-headed monster, Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker, which has terrorised opposition this season.
Much like the Crows as a whole, Thilthorpe has taken his game to new heights in 2025 to become one of the most dominant power forwards in the competition.
Thilthorpe sits sixth in the AFL in goals (career-best 51) and ranked No. 4 in the league in Champion Data’s 100X Ratings System, which is a comparison of all players regardless of position.
The 23-year old is the No. 3 rated key forward since Round 17, with King saying “we’re about to see a man destroy a finals series”.
“I’ve never seen a guy more cherry ripe to go crazy than Riley Thilthorpe. He’s already the most influential tall in the game,” the North Melbourne champion said on First Crack: Preview.
“I think there will be a period over the next couple of years where we say this guy is the best player in the competition. I know everyone is talking about Sam Darcy, I just think this guys is going to be super healthy, strong and capable most weeks. Once it hits those mitts, it’s over.”
And is Matthew Nicks maximising his asset?
King believes Thilthorpe should be used in the ruck more often in a potential point of difference in September, with the numbers showing how effective he’s been in the role.
When Thilthorpe has been deployed in the ruck, Adelaide is +38 points per 100 minutes, compared to +18 points per 100 minutes when he’s forward.
Thilthorpe, who’s the No. 4 rated key ruck since Round 17, has exploited opposition ruckman for speed up forward in a move King thinks Adelaide should utilise more.
“I think this is underrated. It’s not how many taps and possessions you have, it’s influence on game. I think he’s underutilised as a ruckman. I think they’ve catered for him to be more of a forward than a ruck, but he gets great matchups as a ruck,” King said.
“He’s a gut runner and great runner. When he plays ruck, it’s almost like what we talk about with Shai Bolton and Kozzy Pickett and these guys, he can charge forward.
“I think this is underutilised from the coaching box. The minutes he’s playing as a ruckman is about 20 per game, I think they should look at 40 to 50. Prioritise this guy in this role. It won’t affect Reilly O’Brien’s game.
“We’re talking about the pointy end now against the best teams. If there’s one way you can create an advantage, there’s not one ruckman in the competition who can play fullback. As often as he can take them deep forward, it’s a big win for the Adelaide Crows.
“This is a hidden gem I think Matty Nicks needs to unearth as early as this week … the numbers tell you they’re tall enough without him forward. They’re one team that can cope with this guy playing more ruck minutes. Prioritise this piece and try capitalise.”
Montagna added: “I like the tactical element to it, you ruck then sprint forward. Make the opposition ruckman make a decision. Are you going to go with Thilthorpe, or do you want to roll the dice?
“We’ve seen Tim English do it a bit more and work as a weapon.”
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