‘Future is his’: Ricciardo history that spells trouble at McLaren as Piastri call starts ticking timebomb

The stakes have crept up quietly on Lando Norris.

He was in his fourth season of Formula 1 when Oscar Piastri was announced as his teammate for 2023. Piastri was billed as a generational talent after his stunning run through the junior championships, and McLaren had secured him in a coup, blindsiding Alpine to give the Aussie his debut in 2023.

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The prospect of the young gun in the neighbouring garage wouldn’t have troubled the Briton. He was coming fresh off two seasons dominating Daniel Ricciardo, and he’d be the unquestioned team leader in his fifth Formula 1 campaign alongside a rookie.

And anyway, he too had been billed as a future great of the sport, and with McLaren’s faith in him unshakeable, he was perfectly positioned to mould the team in his own image, setting himself up for a long and lucrative partnership with the historic marque.

But at some point in the last 18 months someone hit fast forward.

McLaren suddenly became a frontrunner and then suddenly became a championship contender.

Red Bull Racing suddenly became vulnerable and Norris was suddenly thrust into a drivers title fight.

Piastri suddenly got good — really good.

Those stakes, having crept almost imperceptibly upwards for months, were suddenly sky high.

And everything Norris thought he had — McLaren in his pocket, his future secured — was suddenly at risk.

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NORRIS RISKS BECOMING YESTERDAY’S MAN

Ironically the debate about whether, when and how McLaren should prioritise Norris’s championship campaign at Piastri’s expense has put the Briton’s future under an intense spotlight.

Norris is the only driver with a realistic shot at the drivers championship, being the last of those still in mathematical contention to be able to overhaul Verstappen without needing to hope for other results to go his way.

Of course some help from Piastri wouldn’t go astray to help maximise his chances.

It’s something McLaren has been grappling with for weeks. In Monza it had been expected to pull the trigger, but instead it only emphasised to its drivers that they were free to race so long as they did so without taking risks.

Some have criticised the team’s reluctance to put all its eggs in the Norris basket as folly, risking missing this rare opportunity to claim the title double.

But really it just demonstrates that Norris is no longer the compelling number one he’s been over the last three years. Piastri has dislodged him from that place.

While Norris has been the marginally better performer overall this season, especially in qualifying, the pendulum is clearly swinging towards Piastri.

The Australian has been the stronger McLaren driver in three of the last four races, and he’s the highest scoring driver on the grid dating back to the Monaco Grand Prix.

While the points favour Norris in the championship battle, form doesn’t, with Piastri ensuring McLaren will have to think long and hard before deciding to sacrifice his season at Norris’s altar.

The result of that deep thinking is telling.

“If we win both titles, it is a massive boost,” McLaren principal Andrea Stella said, per the BBC. “And [Piastri] benefits from a big boost to the team, even if he is the other driver, because we have to not forget Oscar is in the middle of his second season of F1.

“The future is Oscar’s.

“He needs to make sure when it is the time to support, the support he gives to the team and Lando, for him is an investment.”

It was a remarkably clear judgement from the team boss.

Piastri is McLaren’s man for tomorrow. Norris, in his prime and after years of hard graft at the back of the grid, is at risk of becoming old news.

RICCIARDO WAS NORRIS BEFORE NORRIS WAS

Daniel Ricciardo knows what Norris is going through. He already lived through it almost a decade ago.

Like Norris, the stakes crept up on him quietly.

He had just started his fifth full-time season in Formula 1 when Max Verstappen was announced as his teammate part of the way through the 2016 season. Verstappen was billed as a generational talent after his stunning rise to F1 after a single season of car racing, and Red Bull Racing had secured him in a coup, blindsiding Mercedes to give the Dutchman an immediate debut in 2015.

But the prospect of the teenager in the neighbouring garage wouldn’t have troubled Ricciardo. The Australian’s reputation was still glowing fresh from having dominated then reigning champion Sebastian Vettel in 2014. He’d be the unquestioned team leader in his fifth Formula 1 campaign alongside a driver with just 23 starts under his belt.

And anyway, he too had been billed as a future great of the sport, and with Red Bull Racing’s faith in him seemingly unshakeable, he was perfectly positioned to mould the team in his own image, setting himself up for a long and lucrative partnership with F1’s new grandee.

But then someone hit fast forward.

Verstappen suddenly won his first grand prix with the team in Spain, and everything Ricciardo thought he had — Red Bull Racing in his pocket, his future secured — was suddenly at risk.

“I saw the potential in Max the very first session we were teammates in Barcelona in 2016,” he told the Red Bull website. “He jumped in the Red Bull car for the first time for practice and was on it straight away.

“I saw more than just speed … it was that he was so unfazed, he didn’t care.

“With so many sports, so many athletes, that’s the bigger thing — who can do it once the eyes are on them, when the pressure is on and the lights are bright.

“His very first time where all eyes were on him, he just didn’t seem bothered by any of it. Two days later, he won the race. There was that ‘it’ factor that was very evident straight away.”

It took time for the rapid but raw Verstappen to establish himself, but by 2017 Ricciardo’s power over the team was beginning to wane as the teenage Dutchman made his mark.

“I knew that was going to come in time for him, and I could see it develop over those three years,” he said. “He was just as fast, if not getting faster, but the mistakes were becoming less, and his engineering … he was more in tune with the car and his feedback to the team.

“He was becoming more complete. I could see this kid was a little bit different, a bit special, and becoming more well-rounded.”

Red Bull Racing could see it too, offering the Dutchman a lucrative new deal in 2017.

“As we now look to the long term with Max, he is in the best place in the sport to build a team around him to deliver our shared ambition,” team principal Christian Horner said at the time.

It raised eyebrows for what appeared to be a clear statement that newcomer Verstappen, not established Ricciardo, would be the driver around which Red Bull Racing would build its new era.

It’s a remarkable parallel to Stella’s declaration that Piastri is McLaren’s future.

Ricciardo, in his prime, was at risk of becoming old news.

What happened next would shape the rest of his career — just as what happens next will define Norris’s.

THE BAKU BUST-UP

Azerbaijan is the scene of one of Ricciardo’s greatest Formula 1 performances. It’s also the scene of one of his most bitter memories.

The Australian arrived in Baku as the reigning winner, having won the race from 17th the previous year, but Red Bull Racing wouldn’t be a in a position to mount the top stop again in 2018. Instead the team found itself managing a skirmish between its drivers.

Ricciardo battled his way past Verstappen before their first pit stops, only for the Dutchman to emerge ahead again with what turned out to be a favourable strategy.

He was attempting to find his way back past into turn 1 when Verstappen jinked into his path under brakes, causing both to crash out of the race.

It was clear to most objective observers that the Dutchman had been at fault, moving under braking having long been a controversial part of his racing repertoire.

But Horner forced Ricciardo to front up to the factory and apologise for the collision along with Verstappen.

It never sat right with the Australian, who cited the saga as a contributing factor in his decision to quit the team later that year to join Renault in 2019.

It’s not that Red Bull Racing was openly prioritising Verstappen. Ricciardo, after all, was the product of far more investment from the Red Bull driver program than Verstappen had been.

Instead it was a subtle emotional preference for the other guy, as Mark Webber once described his experience partnered with Sebastian Vettel.

It was ultimately something Ricciardo decided he couldn’t abide. He could see that Verstappen was getting stronger. At best the Dutchman would end up an even match for the Australian. At worst he’d overpower him.

“I’ve got no problems saying he could go down maybe as the greatest of all time,” Ricciardo said. “There’s no ego in the way of that for me, it’s just a respect for what he’s done and what he’s doing.”

Whatever the case, Ricciardo knew the odds of beating Verstappen in a team increasingly built around his teammate were low and getting lower.

So he changed the course of his career, quitting Red Bull Racing at the end of the season.

THE FUTURE IS OSCAR’S

There’s no sign of a similar emotional preference for Piastri at McLaren, which has played with an assiduously straight bat throughout the year, but the same outcome is inevitable.

Two alpha drivers can’t coexist in a championship-winning team.

The parallels are already clear.

Norris is the established McLaren product alongside the externally hired Piastri.

Norris has years more seat time under his belt to Piastri’s relative inexperience.

Norris is expected to perform, whereas Piastri performs beyond expectations.

“In 2014 I had the youth like the 2016 version of Max where you just jump in the car, you’re in a top team, and you’re running on instinct, excitement, a bit of ‘f**k it, let’s see what happens’,” Ricciardo said. “That’s very powerful.

“The 2016 version of me — and this is probably the 2018 version of Max — you’re still young and hungry enough to not care so much, but then you have those extra couple of years of experience, and technically you’re more in tune with the car, the team and the decisions they’re making.

“On the days where you can’t just rely on pure talent, you have a little bit more support behind that. The 2016 season was when I felt that, and that’s what I feel Max was starting to come into by 2018.”

Barely 18 months into his career and Piastri is already a comfortable match for Norris, and whereas the Briton’s learning curve is already plateauing, the Australian’s is still steep.

We never got the chance to see where Verstappen and Ricciardo’s curves intersected, but we’re beginning to get hints at what it will look like for their modern McLaren counterparts.

Piastri’s gutsy first-lap pass at the Italian Grand Prix was the sort of move that makes a statement.

As he swept around his teammate’s right-hand side the Melburnian told the team — and the public — that he would be no number two driver.

And the robust, authoritative move damaged Norris’s prestige, not least because it was the seventh time in a row he’d failed to keep the race lead on the first lap after having started from pole.

Norris is an extremely talented driver likely capable of winning world titles. He deserves the chance to lead a team to the F1 promised land.

But can that team be McLaren if Piastri is in the other car?

Norris might win the title this year with Piastri’s help. He might find a new level of performance from it as a result.

But the growing assumption in the paddock is that Piastri has the higher ceiling. Sooner or later he’ll likely move past Norris and make McLaren his own team.

At that point Norris will be forced to make a choice: slog it out with the odds increasingly stacked against him or consider finding another place to make his mark.

Ricciardo’s crash in Azerbaijan in 2018 began the process of crystallising in his mind that there was no room for his career to continue growing at Red Bull Racing. He couldn’t exist in a world built for Verstappen.

Norris is in the early stages of having that same reality forced upon him by Piastri.

He may not know it yet, but he need only ask old teammate Ricciardo for the signs.