Friedrich Merz looks set to become the next German chancellor after leading the CDU/CSU to victory in Germany’s federal election. Florian Stoeckel writes that given the pace of international events, having new leadership in place quickly would be advantageous for both Europe and Germany.
Germany’s election results are in, and as anticipated, the conservative CDU/CSU has emerged as the strongest party. What was uncertain before the election was whether the CDU/CSU could form a government with just one coalition partner or would require two. The CDU/CSU can secure a majority of seats with the Social Democrats (SPD). This outcome simplifies coalition-building compared to a potential three-party alliance – recently proven unstable – but it does not guarantee smooth sailing for either party.
Grand coalition dynamics
The CDU/CSU will try to form a grand coalition with the SPD, a combination that has historically provided stable governance in Germany. However, grand coalitions are not necessarily popular among voters and could strain both parties. For the SPD, the situation is particularly challenging. The party just experienced a record-low result. A CDU/CSU-led government will inevitably steer the country to the right.
While coalition partners are expected to compromise on some of their goals, the SPD faces a difficult dilemma: aligning with a very conservative CDU/CSU agenda could further alienate its voter base and accelerate its decline. However, holding firm positions or failing to reach a compromise with the CDU/CSU would delay the formation of a new government – something that might be politically risky for the SPD, as it could be blamed for political gridlock.
The CDU/CSU will be almost twice as large as the Social Democrats in terms of parliamentary seats, making it unlikely for them to offer substantial concessions. Both the CDU/CSU and SPD are aligned in supporting Ukraine. However, disagreements are likely to occur over how future support should be funded, especially as the United States signals a potential decrease in its financial backing. The SPD sees some borrowing as the only way to avoid painful spending cuts that would hurt its voters while continuing to support Ukraine. The CDU/CSU is inclined towards fiscal restraint rather than maintaining or expanding public spending.
Immigration was a central campaign issue, and the CDU/CSU is likely to pursue measures to reduce immigration that will be difficult for the SPD to accept. The SPD will be under pressure to balance its more inclusive stance with the CDU/CSU’s restrictive approach, particularly given the rise of the AfD and its anti-immigrant rhetoric. There are also substantial divides on other key issues, such as climate change policies, gender equality and support for diversity.
The rise of the AfD
The AfD secured an unprecedented number of seats, winning around one-fifth of the parliamentary vote and building on its already strong presence in parliament. This is noteworthy due to the party’s strong and open use of anti-immigrant rhetoric, which challenged norms that have previously limited such discourse in Germany, given the country’s history. The AfD continued to gain a particularly large share of the vote in eastern regions of Germany, where, in some cases, it received the largest number of votes with just below 40 percent, outpacing both the Social Democrats and the CDU/CSU.
The AfD’s surge reflects a trend seen in other European countries. This election also saw unprecedented international involvement. For instance, Elon Musk live-streamed an interview with AfD lead candidate Alice Weidel on his platform X, and US Vice President J.D. Vance publicly voiced support for the party – an extent of foreign influence previously unheard of in German politics. Despite the AfD’s gains, CDU lead candidate for chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with the far-right party, making this an unlikely scenario.
Shifts on the political left and the collapse of the FDP
The Left Party (Die Linke) saw a last-minute surge in support and managed to re-enter parliament with a strong result. This is particularly surprising because the party broke apart just some time ago, and the offshoot “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW), founded by ex-members of the Left Party, was quite successful in recent regional elections.
The Left Party was polling below the 5% threshold in 2024, which raised doubts about its very survival in parliament. However, a new leadership took over and ran a campaign that was particularly successful among younger voters. The BSW, on the other hand, just barely missed the 5% threshold.
Consequently, the opposition will include a very strong far-right as well as a robust far-left party, along with the Green Party. The Green Party is the one party from the previous three-party coalition that lost comparably little support. The result is nevertheless a disappointment for the Greens because their lead candidate had high approval ratings and they are in all likelihood not needed for government formation.
Meanwhile, the liberal FDP, which was also one of the three parties in the previous government, dramatically lost support. It dropped out of parliament altogether because its share was under the 5% threshold. This marks a significant shift in the political landscape, as the FDP has traditionally been a coalition partner for the CDU/CSU.
Coalition formation and political stability
Friedrich Merz aims to have a coalition agreement in place by Easter. Given the pace of international events and discussions about a new European security architecture, having new leadership in place sooner rather than later would be advantageous for Europe and for Germany.
However, this would require all parties to make significant compromises quickly – a prospect that seems unlikely given their policy differences, regardless of international pressures. The SPD has already announced that it will put the coalition agreement to a vote among its members. While this strategy gives the party leverage in negotiations, it also adds another layer of complexity to an already challenging process.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Juergen Nowak / Shutterstock.com
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