‘Going to be telling’: Massive litmus test looms for ‘all or nothing’ Hawks ahead of tough month

We’re about to find out whether the Hawks are the real deal in 2025.

Hawthorn has started the season in fine form, sitting third on the AFL ladder with a win-loss record of 7-2, their best start to a season since their golden premiership era.

It’s a stark contrast to how their 2024 campaign began, where they dropped their first five games.

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But they’re about to face a huge litmus test, that will tell us exactly how far they can go this season.

Across the next five matches, Hawthorn takes on the Gold Coast Suns, Brisbane, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide. That’s all of the other top six sides in the competition as it stands. Put simply, the Hawks will either sink or swim.

“This is now the time where we find out just how good the Hawks are in season 2025 because the next five weeks are going to be telling,” St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna began on Fox Footy’s First Crack Preview.

“When you take a look at what they’ve done so far, they haven’t done much wrong, they’re sitting 7-2, a lot of their game is in really good shape, but they’ve beaten who they’ve beaten,” he said.

Hawthorn has played just two top eight sides so far this season – a strong win over the Giants in Tasmania and a narrow loss to Geelong at the MCG on Easter Monday.

Their only other loss was a disappointing defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide, where they were blown off the park in the first half before staging a valiant fightback late in the game.

There’s a bit of a class gap emerging between the top and bottom sides at the moment. Granted, anyone can beat anyone on any given day, but the current top eight have a 33-7 record against the rest of the competition so far this year.

“They’ve had a relatively easy draw, now we’re going to find out more about them,” Montagna continued.

So, are the Hawks actually any good?

“There are some chinks in their game at the moment… the big one is they turn the ball over more than any other team in the competition in their back half, which can leave them vulnerable,” Montagna said.

Since round two, Hawthorn ranks 18th in the competition for turnovers in the defensive half, 13th in the compeititon for turnover scores against from the defensive half and 15th for clearance differential. They’re 12th for time in forward half, too.

“But the way the Hawks play, they’re all or nothing. If they get out of the defensive 50 and they get some bounce and they can switch and go, they are dynamite, they’re hard to stop. But if teams can clamp them and lock it in the forward half, force them down the line, take away that run and bounce…,” Montagna continued.

Last week, Melbourne challenged them, especially through the second term. The Dees dominated time in forward half during that period, but ultimately couldn’t get the reward on the scoreboard.

The Dees had 26 forward half turnovers for a 3.6 return, while the week before, the Eagles score five goals from 35. And this is where the challenge is going to come for the Hawks.

While the ladder position tells one story, the underlying stats back it up. Hawthorn’s next five matches are as tough as they come.

CLEARANCE DIFFERENTIAL

Gold Coast: 4th in competition

Brisbane: 1st

Collingwood: 5th

Western Bulldogs: 2nd

Adelaide: 9th

TIME IN FORWARD HALF

Gold Coast: 1st

Brisbane: 5th

Collingwood: 3rd

Western Bulldogs: 2nd

Adelaide: 6th

FORWARD HALF INTERCEPTS

Gold Coast: 1st

Brisbane: 13th

Collingwood: 3rd

Western Bulldogs: 7th

Adelaide: 2nd

“They are coming up against five of the better defensive teams or particularly the forward half teams in the competition. Can the Hawks get their way through and bounce and pop and go against the best teams and maybe they’ll put the competition on notice and say, ‘yep, we are the real deal’, or will they find it a challenge?” Montagna posed.

It’s clear that the Hawks have to take care of the ball exiting their defensive half.

“The Hawks are going to have to take care of the ball in their back 50 because these sides can punish,” Montagna said.

“I’d just take a bit more care, you don’t need to be reckless out of your back half. Some of those Hollywood kicks we’ve seen… when it works it’s brilliant, but maybe at the right time just be a little bit more careful.”

Captain James Sicily is one of the biggest culprits when it comes to turnovers in the defensive half, ranked 1st in the competition with 32. Having said that, Sicily is often the player who takes on the riskier kicks and sets up plenty of Hawthorn’s offensive ball movement.

“He’s turning the ball over more than anyone, but he’s also the player that can break the game open with his kicking. He’s part of the problem, he’s hit and miss… but I’d leave him,” Montagna said when asked whether Hawthorn should consider shifting Sicily into attack more permanently.

So, yes, the Hawks have their flaws, but every team does.

“When they get it wrong the Hawks, they’re paying a big price, but this is their game, this is who they are and what they do really well,” North Melbourne champion David King told Fox Footy’s First Crack Preview.

When they transition the ball from defensive to offense, the Hawks work the angles. In fact, they’re the best team in the competition for scoring from angled kicks.

Melbourne did a great job of stunting Hawthorn’s ball movement across three quarters last weekend before the Hawks eventually prevailed and got the game on their terms late.

“He wants angles, particularly long angles out of the backline,” King continued.

“So, at three quarter time when (Mitchell) says ‘excite me, you’re boring me’, they’re not even set up for down the line. They’re going to go laterally, diagonal, they’re going to go backwards if they have to. If it needs a handball or two, so be it, but they want the long, searching switch that’s exactly what’s putting teams to the sword.”

It’s a clear element of Mitchell’s game plan, but they’ve also been kind of pushed in that direction given the unavailability of their two key forwards in Mitchell Lewis and Calsher Dear in the early parts of the season.

Mabior Chol has found some form in recent weeks and looks hungry, while veteran Jack Gunston will be managed this week, but has booted 23 goals in seven games to wind back the clock.

Ruck Lloyd Meek will also sit the Suns game out due to load management, with Ned Reeves set to assume his role in the side against a two-pronged Suns attack of Jarrod Witts and Ned Moyle.

Tom Barrass, Cam Mackenie and Jack Scrimshaw all return in a huge boost for Mitchell’s side, but Jarman Impey and Luke Breust are out.

Without Dear and Lewis, Hawthorn’s small-ball forward line has thrived with the exciting ball movement.

Nick Watson has booted 14 majors and continues to improve, while Dylan Moore and Jack Ginnivan are also integral parts to their front half setup.

Swingman Black Hardwick has been used down there at stages as well, as has Sicily and young gun Josh Weddle.

Breust and Connor Macdonald are also key figures inside 50, while Finn Maginnes and Jai Newcombe have spent time forward to add different options. It’s a dynamic forward line and at times unpredictable.

“If they go lateral or backwards, they’re next to score 61 per cent of the time, which is the second best in the competition. If they go down the line, they’re below AFL average,” King added.

“This is who they are – you’ve got to be ready to defeat this… if you don’t, you bleed. If you do, you get them, it’s as simple as that.

“When you’re asking what sort of coach ‘Mitch’ is, this is it. I’ want to see you express yourself, I want to see you get out on your bike and run, make the ground big, entertain, make them chase us. Whether you get the ball or not, doesn’t matter. You’ve got to create voids of space for your teammates’.

“They’re all simple plans, but they’ve got to be done brilliantly. When it works it looks terrific and the challenge is to not have the skill errors for one and you’ve got to have the options, everyone’s a runner at the Hawks.”

And now a gigantic test awaits. Will the Hawks step up to the challenge and assert themselves as genuine premiership contenders? Only time will tell, but all eyes will be on the brown and gold over the next five weeks.