Glenn Maxwell’s historic 201* to stun Afghanistan didn’t just send Australia into the World Cup semi-finals, but might’ve decided who’ll join them there.
With Tuesday night’s victory the Aussies are locked into the playoff stage, and will face South Africa at Kolkata’s Eden Gardens from 7:30pm AEDT on Thursday November 16.
It’s the venue where the South Africans were rolled for 83 against India, while Australia has not played there at this World Cup.
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India will host the fourth-placed side a day earlier at Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium but, with six matches left in the group stage (as of Wednesday evening), there are still three potential opponents for the hosts.
Afghanistan desperately needed to hold onto the victory against the Aussies, as it would’ve propelled them into outright fourth with a game to play, but instead they remain locked in an unfavourable three-way tie with New Zealand and Pakistan.
The Kiwis hold the advantage in net run rate, at +0.398 compared to Pakistan’s +0.036 and Afghanistan’s -0.338, a lead which is likely (but not certain) to hold heading into their clash with Sri Lanka on Thursday.
Pakistan has the advantage of playing their final game, against minnows England, last (on Saturday) – meaning they’ll know exactly what they need to win by.
As it stands, Pakistan needs to beat England by 130 runs or chase the total within 29 overs, plus whatever New Zealand beats Sri Lanka by.
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Afghanistan needs to win by at least 268 runs to catch the Kiwis meaning they are only realistically going to qualify for the semi-finals if they beat South Africa on Friday, and the other two nations lose.
Alternatively if only the Kiwis lose (or if their match is rained out), Afghanistan would need to beat South Africa by at least 133 runs, or win within 29 overs, to catch Pakistan.
The other race to watch in the final week of the group stage is who’ll finish in the top eight and qualify for the Champions Trophy.
England (1-6) and the Netherlands (2-5) are the bottom two sides heading into their clash on Wednesday, with the loser almost certain to miss qualification.
Bangladesh (vs Australia) and Sri Lanka (vs New Zealand) sit 7th and 8th, each with 2-6 records and ahead of both the English (vs Pakistan) and Dutch (vs India) on net run rate.
WORLD CUP STANDINGS (As of Wednesday November 8)
1. India – 8-0, +2.456 net run rate
2. South Africa – 6-2, +1.376
3. Australia – 6-2, +0.861
4. New Zealand – 4-4, +0.398
5. Pakistan – 4-4, +0.036
6. Afghanistan – 4-4, -0.338
7. Bangladesh – 2-6, -1.142
8. Sri Lanka – 2-6, -1.160
9. Netherlands – 2-5, -1.398
10. England – 1-6, -1.504
WORLD CUP FIXTURES REMAINING
November 8: England vs Netherlands @ MCA International Stadium
November 9: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
November 10: South Africa vs Afghanistan @ Narendra Modi Stadium
November 11: Australia vs Bangladesh @ MCA International Stadium
November 11: England vs Pakistan @ Eden Gardens
November 12: India vs Netherlands @ M. Chinnaswamy Stadium
Semi-Finals
November 15: 1st place (India) vs 4th place (New Zealand, Pakistan or Afghanistan) @ Wankhede Stadium
November 16: 2nd place (South Africa or Australia) vs 3rd place (South Africa or Australia) @ Eden Gardens
Final
November 19: Winner of semi-final 1 vs winner of semi-final 2 @ Narendra Modi Stadium
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