How most shocking trade in NBA history blew up worse than imagined… so what’s next?

“Time will tell if I’m right.”

Dallas general manager Nico Harrison said after trading Luka Doncic to the LA Lakers 284 days ago.

284 days later Harrison’s time expired in a concession from the Mavericks they made a monumental mistake.

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Imagine if you went in a time machine nine months into the future after the Doncic trade.

Doncic has led the LA Lakers to an 8-3 record and top four seed in the West, despite the absence of LeBron James, in an MVP caliber season.

Injury has forced Anthony Davis on the sidelines again and Dallas is 3-8.

Harrison has been fired after being drowned in ‘Fire Nico’ chants at Dallas games in a revolt from irate fans.

Lakers counterpart Rob Pelinka is smirking to himself somewhere. He occasionally has to pinch himself and think: ‘Wait, how did I pull this off again?’

Yep, all that happened …

Could it possibly be playing out any worse for the Mavericks? And conversely, any better for the Lakers? Yet at the same time, could it have been any more predictable?

The most unthinkable, shocking and inconceivable trade in NBA history didn’t make sense at the time. And it will never, ever make sense.

It’s still impossible to get your head around.

It was, and remains, the most stupefying and mind boggling gamble imaginable from Dallas. And the biggest fall-in-your-lap jackpot for LA and free ticket to life after LeBron James.

It’s hard to articulate just how catastrophic it’s been for the Mavericks.

Luka Doncic was a generational superstar still entering his prime, already a five-time All-NBA First Team representative and five-time All-Star.

He took the Mavericks to the NBA Finals some seven months before the trade. Seven months! The NBA Finals!

And already reached cult hero/legend status for the franchise before turning 26 and set to be its greatest ever player.

They struck gold in drafting this guy who wanted to play his entire career at Dallas.

He was adored by fans like a member of their family. You sense there’s a few pets named Luka throughout Texas.

And yet …

The Slovenian superstar was moved in the middle of the night, without even being shopped around, after private trade discussions with just one team.

Had Doncic been put on the market, it would’ve yielded some sort of all-time haul.

Imagine selling top five real estate in the world privately for way unders …

Consider that the likes of Desmond Bane, Mikal Bridges and Rudy Gobert commanded mega hauls of multiple first-round picks in trades in recent years.

The return for Doncic? Davis, Max Christie and a first-round pick …

Clearly, Davis alone was worth a few first-round picks. But to make an injury-prone 30-year old the centrepiece of the package was foolish in its own right. And Davis’ value is only going in the wrong direction.

The aftermath of the trade has been a dark cloud hanging over Dallas ever since.

“Fire Nico! Fire Nico! Fire Nico!,” — the all-too-painfully-familiar chants drowning out America Airlines Center along with similarly derogatory signs.
The dismal of the man responsible for the deal will help clear that dark cloud, to an extent, but it’ll continue to haunt the team for some time.

At least, so long as Doncic is wearing the purple and gold … and whatever he achieves there.

But does it even matter at this point whether Doncic and the Lakers win a title? Given the collateral damage and way it’s completely and utterly alienated the Mavs fan base.

And that’s just the optics and emotion of it all. From a sheer basketball perspective, it looks to have set Dallas a ways back.

Granted, the Mavericks have been hit by injuries to their best two players, with Davis currently sidelined with a calf issue and Kyrie Irving brutally struck down with an ACL injury.

But they knew what they were getting themselves into when they banked on two injury prone players in their 30s.

And sure, you can blame injuries for anything. But some point history is what history is.

Thus, there were basically two big problems with the Doncic trade, beyond shipping him out in the first place.

One, they didn’t get enough back in the deal for one of the most valuable assets in NBA history.

It had to include an assortment of draft picks in addition to a star level player the Mavs could hang their hat on for the next few years.

And Austin Reaves simply had to be part of the deal.

Even if you added Reaves to the package they got, it would’ve been unders. And that’s with the star Lakers guard elevating his game to become a genuine top-line star. He’s averaged 30.3 points, five rebounds, nine assists, 2.9 threes and 1.5 steals per game so far in a career-best season.

The other hitch is that Dallas banked on the health of Davis, one of the most injury prone players in the NBA.

There’s absolutely no denying the 10-time All-Star and Lakers championship big’s abilities. He’s just not on the court enough.

In fact, the 32-year old has played in just 16 of a possible 43 games for the Mavericks — or 37 per cent. And he’s played over 60 games just once in the last seven seasons, plus big men’s bodies don’t typically age well in the NBA.

Again, basketball aside, Harrison and the Mavericks ultimately underestimated the level of rage and disharmony of fans that sending out a franchise cornerstone would create.

Sport is more about winning titles. It’s about fanfare and general love and passion.

Players like Doncic come around once in a blue moon, and many fans would’ve attended or watched games for the Slovenian superstar alone.

Take that away and you break the hearts of people and trigger a wave of devastation, disharmony and vitriol.

Not to mention the way it’s clearly lit a fire under a motivated and trimmed-down Doncic, who’s at the absolute peak of his powers and paying as well as anyone in the league.

He’s averaged 37.1 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game. Case in point.

And this all comes with the backdrop of the Mavericks hitting the jackpot and landing No. 1 daft pick Cooper Flagg with 1.8 per cent lottery odds.

Which, basically gave Harrison an out. A team that went all-in on win-now mode and a defence heavy line-up also had a future cornerstone.

They had their cake and ate it too. Even if having two timelines is hard to manoeuvre and nail.

But not even Flagg, yet to hit his straps in an uncustomary point guard role, could salvage the wreckage that is the aftermath of the Doncic trade that backfired spectacularly. At least, not yet.

Or help mend a fractured fan base and team at large.

The fact the Flagg couldn’t dilute some of the negativity and lift the vibes speaks volumes.

Granted, he’s only 18 years old, so the on-court stuff is a big ask right now, as talented as he is.

Imagine if they didn’t get Flag, as was a 98.2 per cent chance …

So what’s next for Dallas and whoever takes over as its new general manager?

Davis’ future has to come into the spotlight and the possibility of exploring his trade market. That wouldn’t have been the case with Harrison running the show.

But already a big man-heavy roster is imbalanced, hence Flagg sliding down to the one with Irving sidelined.

So unless this team can drastically turn things around and become the contender Harrison envisioned, building around Flagg should be the priority.

Trading Davis — owed $175 million (AUD $268 million) over the next three seasons — while he has value, even if it’s diminished, makes some sense. But don’t expect to attach a pick and a role player and get a Doncic-esque level of player in return.

Irving and others could also be on the trade block.

Dallas owns its 2025 first-round draft pick but loses control over all its other first rounders for the rest of the decade.

Those picks were all moved to build a contender around Doncic …

It makes a traditional rebuild harder to justify, unless they can get some of their picks back. But building around Flagg doesn’t necessarily need to mean completely bottoming out, for they’ve already got their long-term superstar.

Hard to identify an alternative plan. Particularly if when — or if — they get healthy and remain a rung or two below the real contenders in the West.

One thing’s clear. Whatever the plan was under Harrison has been scrunched up and thrown out.

There was something poetic about Doncic pouring in 38 points and continuing LA’s strong start to the season on the same day the Davis-less Mavs’ slump rolled on. Despite Flagg’s career-best performance.

It felt like the breaking point for a franchise and final nail in the coffin for Harrison after a tumultuous nine months.

He preached that “defence wins championships” after acquiring Davis, who was supposed to encapsulate that new identity.

But it’s blown up in their face. And now an 18-year old stands as the key figure to pick up the pieces.