For the third time in four years, the reigning premier has missed the top eight the following year.
A reigning premier hasn’t won a final the following year since Richmond in 2020.
Teams are suffering from premiership hangovers more than ever.
Watch every game until the 2024 AFL Grand Final LIVE with no ad-breaks during play on Kayo. New to Kayo? Start your free trial today >
But why is that?
“Do we let them off too easily, or is this an indication of how much of an investment you have to make in a premiership year?” Melbourne champion Garry Lyon began on Fox Footy’s On the Couch.
“You can’t win back-to-back because you invest so much to go so deep. Things change as a result of you winning the premiership,” Lyon said.
“Players who are on the edge and were doing extras because they wanted to get there have got a bit down.
“This didn’t happen in the previous 20 years. I think it happened twice in the previous 20 years; this is three in the last four.”
In 2021, Richmond finished 12th, as did Geelong in 2023. Melbourne were bundled out in straight sets in 2022.
This year’s reigning premiers, Collingwood, need a mathematical miracle to feature in September this year.
You can forgive Richmond in 2021, given they’d won three flags in four years, but when you look at the past three reigning premiers, it starts to raise questions.
Houston, Ash head to AFL Tribunal | 01:59
“There’s so much of an investment in winning their premiership that it changes the whole dynamic here for you, in terms of how deep you go, the amount of rest, what that means psychologically, it’s a damn hard thing to do,” Lyon said.
“There’s no doubt the psychological components are big ones, especially for senior players. Are they really dog hungry to get to the top of the mountain again?” Brisbane Lions champion Jonathan Brown replied.
“We’ve seen some inconsistencies with senior players at Collingwood, especially earlier in the season.
“If you have one particular area of your ground affected by injury, which Collingwood had this year with their forward line, last year was Geelong in the midfield and defence at the start of the year, that’s a real problem.
“It just shows how even the competition is.”
Collingwood defender Nathan Murphy was prematurely retired due to concussion, star midfielder Tom Mitchell has struggled to stay fit this season and Jamie Elliott has managed only 14 games this campaign due to a vascular issue.
‘One of the worst you’ll see!’ | 04:50
Brody Mihocek has also missed time through injury, as has Dan McStay, Beau McReery, Jeremy Howe, Scott Pendlebury and Jordan De Goey.
Put simply, Craig McRae’s side has had a rotten run of luck on the injury front.
Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley said Collingwood’s inability to win those close games which they became so good at last year had also played a part in their demise during 2024.
“The competition is really even, the margins between success, we’ve seen how crucial momentum is. Collingwood haven’t been able to turn their competitive matches into those one-kick wins this year, where they relied on that so heavily the previous two seasons,” he said.
Discussion about this post