Despite low expectations last year, the Raiders were able to snare a top eight spot in 2023 before their season ended in heartbreaking fashion.
Entering 2024, the expectations are even lower now that Jack Wighton has left the club he spent 12 seasons at to link up with the Rabbitohs.
Without Wighton, many are writing the Green Machine off this season.
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According to the TAB, the Raiders are $67 to win the comp and $1.16 to miss the top eight.
But the Raiders have been written off before, especially in recent years.
Yet, despite the lack of love for the Raiders from pundits, experts or fans, Canberra have exceeded expectations to reach the finals in three of the past four seasons.
Fox League’s Cooper Cronk admits the Raiders’ spine has taken a hit with the loss of Wighton, but says “there’s hope” this season, pointing to a talented forward pack and their never say die attitude.
“No Jack Wighton, so Canberra have lost a bit of star power in the halves but then you look at that forward pack, and it’s a legit forward pack,” Cronk told foxsports.com.au.
“It’s tough, uncompromising, doesn’t take a backwards step and something you can play behind.
“They’ll scrap over everything which is a really good quality and mentality to have.
“They didn’t win a game by more than 12 points last season, so they are going to need someone in their team, outside of the forward pack, to really stand up and take control.”
Here foxsports.com.au breaks down all the key factors for the Raiders heading into the 2024 season!
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STRENGTH
Forward pack.
It’s a pretty formidable engine room that the Raiders possess, and on talent, it measures up against the likes of the Panthers, Titans and Broncos packs.
Joseph Tapine has been one of the most consistent performers in the league over the past five-six seasons, and even approaching 30, he’s a damaging ball runner who hits as hard as anyone.
Josh Papali’i may be in the twilight of his career and playing less minutes, but his ability to charge forward and run for big metres hasn’t been lost yet.
With Corey Horsburgh and Hudson Young in the side, three of the five Raiders’ starting forwards played rep footy in 2023, with Papali’i taking himself out of contention for a Maroons jersey last season.
Horsburgh and Young only increase this team’s hard edge, as they are two guys who don’t know how to take a backwards step.
There is plenty of depth as well with the likes of Emre Guler, Trey Mooney and new recruits Morgan Smithies and Zac Hosking all more than capable.
With a bit of uncertainty in the halves and backline, the Raiders forwards will need to be at their damaging and fiery best this season for the team to be a chance.
WHO IS UNDER PRESSURE?
Ricky Stuart.
He’s a favourite son in Canberra, but it’s hard not to think that Stuart is at least somewhat under the pump entering this season.
Since taking over the top job in 2016, Stuart is yet to deliver the nation’s capital a premiership, although went desperately close in 2019.
With that said, and for all his critics, Stuart clearly gets the most out of his playing group and in many of the seasons he’s been at the helm, you can say the Raiders have overachieved.
Cooper Cronk says this season will be one of the “biggest challenges of Stuart’s coaching career”.
“Ricky Stuart is one of the few people who can coach the Canberra Raiders team.
“He’s got green in his blood, he’s a Raider through and through, he connects with the community and the playing group.”
What’s adding to the pressure is that Stuart, at this stage, is under contract for just two more years.
IT’S A BIG YEAR FOR …
Jamal Fogarty.
Fogarty is going to need to play a starring role more often than not for the Raiders to make some noise this season.
His kicking game is top tier, as is his leadership and his ability to lead and direct the team around the park.
However, he’ll need to be more of a threat running the ball and not afraid to make the big, matchbreaking play.
Cronk challenged Fogarty to take the “leap forward” this season, adding he has the perfect mentor in the building.
“In terms of star power throughout their spine, it’s lacking a little bit compared to the premiership contenders, but Ricky Stuart is one of the greatest halfbacks to ever play the game and I feel like Jamal Fogarty needs to go to that next level and improve in some ball playing areas to become one of the standout halfbacks of our competition,” Cronk said.
“It’s going to be a hell of a leap for him (without Wighton) and I hope he’s had the biggest pre-season of his career because if the Raiders are going to play finals and make some noise, you got the forward pack there, but you’ll need one of the spine members to have the best year of their career and I think Jamal’s probably the one who has to take that leap forward.
“If I was Jamal Fogarty, I’d be living in Ricky Stuart’s pocket. I’d be absorbing information; I’d be asking 1000 questions. You can see there are areas in Jamal’s game that are solid but there are other areas in his game that need to improve.
“He needs to be the guy that can break open the line, he needs to be the guy create for someone else to do something, he needs to be the guy who recognises when the likes of Tapine, Horsburgh and Papali’i bend that line that it’s go time for the halfback of the Raiders to take control.
“They need to dominate those teams they need to and when an opportunity comes up against one of the good sides, Jamal Fogarty is going to have to take advantage of it.”
RISING STAR
Chevy Stewart.
Many were tipping the teen sensation to start at fullback for the Raiders in Round 1, but after an underwhelming performance against Parramatta in a trial game, Canberra thought best to show some patience with a player who looks a future superstar.
Instead they will reportedly name Jordan Rapana at fullback for the opening round.
That decision doesn’t discredit Stewart or the extremely high opinion the Raiders have of him.
Stewart starred for the Raiders’ NSW Cup team as a 17 and 18-year-old last season, helping the Green Machine earn a finals spot in reserve grade.
UNLUCKY ONE
(Potentially) James Schiller.
There’s every chance the 22-year-old will play considerable football for the Raiders this season, like he deserves too. And there’s a good chance Schiller is named in the backline for Canberra’s Round 1 clash against the Newcastle Knights with Seb Kris suspended.
However, in Round 2, there’s a chance he will have to make way.
Placed behind the star centre duo of Kris and Matt Timoko, Schiller may have to either bide his time or hope to be selected on the wing.
Schiller, the nephew of Raiders legend Brett Mullins, has played 10 games for the Green Machine since debuting in the opening round of the 2022 season.
He’s shown he is more than good enough to be playing first grade consistently. A highlight was his two-try performance on the wing against the Knights’ in last season’s finals loss to the Knights while Kris suspended.
With Jordan Rapana reportedly set to start the season as Canberra’s fullback, Schiller will be fighting with Albert Hopoate, Xavier Savage and Nick Cotric for the team’s two wing spots.
For what it’s worth, Schiller was one of Canberra’s best in the trial win over Parramatta.
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PREDICTION:
BEST 17:
1. Xavier Savage
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Seb Kris
4. Matt Timoko
5. James Schiller
6. Kaeo Weekes
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papali’i
9. Zac Woolford
10. Corey Horsburgh
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
14. Tom Starling
15. Morgan Smithies
16. Emre Guler
17. Trey Mooney
2024 squad: Albert Hopoate (2025), Ata Mariota (2026), Chevy Stewart (2026, MO 2027), Corey Horsburgh (2027), Corey Harawira-Naera (2025, PO 2026), Danny Levi (2025), Elliott Whitehead (2024), Emre Guler (2025), Ethan Strange (2025), Hohepa Puru (2024, MO 2025), Hudson Young (2027), Jamal Fogarty (2025, CO 2026), James Schiller (2024), Jordan Rapana (2024), Joseph Tapine (2027, PO 2028), Josh Papali’i (2024, MO 2025), Kaeo Weekes (2025), Matthew Timoko (2025), Morgan Smithies (2026), Nick Cotric (2024), Pasami Saulo (2024), Peter Hola (2024), Sebastian Kris (2027), Simi Sasagi (2025), Tom Starling (2025), Trey Mooney (2024), Xavier Savage (2025), Zac Hosking (2026), Zac Woolford (2024)
Development players: Adrian Trevilyan (2025), Noah Martin (2026), Utuloa Asomua (2026), Vena Patuki-Case (2025)
2024 gains: Zac Hosking (Panthers), Simi Sasagi (Knights), Kaeo Weekes (Sea Eagles), Morgan Smithies (Wigan)
2024 losses: Jack Wighton (Rabbitohs), Matt Frawley (Leeds Rhinos), Jarrod Croker (retired), Clay Webb (unsigned), Harley Smith-Shields (Titans)
Coach: Ricky Stuart (2025)
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