President Joe Biden is the heavy favorite to win tonight’s Democratic primary in Michigan. But that hasn’t stopped those who believe he should be pushing harder for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas from organizing a vote for “uncommitted.”
That is, a vote in the primary for “uncommitted” is a protest vote against Biden’s handling of the conflict in Gaza. It’s not clear how well this effort will do, but a high percentage of support could suggest general election trouble for Biden in the Wolverine State.
Take a look at the 2020 Republican presidential primaries: President Donald Trump romped to wins everywhere with 94% of the vote nationally, but his weakest region (or census subdivision) by far was New England. He was under 90% of the primary vote in all those states and even came in with less than 80% in Connecticut. In the general election, all the New England states swung against Trump by about 2 to 4 times as much as the swing against him nationally compared with 2016.
In the 2012 Democratic presidential primaries, we saw a somewhat similar phenomenon. President Barack Obama won about 90% of the vote nationally. He got below 60% of the primary vote in a line of states from Oklahoma to Arkansas to Kentucky to West Virginia.
All four were among the six states that swung the most toward the Republican candidate on the presidential level from 2004 to 2012.
It’s not exactly clear what a low level of support tonight for Biden would be. Still, he got over 95% of the vote in South Carolina and nearly 90% in Nevada. If he falls significantly short of those levels, it could be ominous.
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