What happens in Tuesday’s special election in New York will be felt across the political spectrum. A win by Republican Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip would be a huge jolt for the GOP and would give it a playbook to replicate — railing on immigration and Biden — in swing districts and states across the country.
Yet a victory of by former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi would mark a major step for Democrats in their quest to retake the majority — where a handful of seats occupied by New York freshmen Republicans will be central in the fall fight for control of a chamber where the GOP holds the slimmest of majorities.
But even though President Biden won New York’s 3rd Congressional District by 8 points, turnout is expected to be considerably lower in a special election, meaning it’s unclear which party will be favored.
Moreover, the Nassau County Republican Party is widely considered a well-organized political machine and could give Pilip a key boost. And the diverse district has a strong contingent of independent voters and working-class Democrats, a mix of voters who have made the GOP successful in local races for years.
Moreover, Pilip — a 44-year-old Ethiopian-born Israeli immigrant who served in the Israel Defense Forces — has presented a unique challenge for Democrats. As a county legislator since 2021, Pilip is little-known district-wide. And despite being the choice of local party leaders to be the GOP candidate in the special election, Pilip is a registered Democrat.
Yet in its first ad attacking Pilip, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee labeled her as “hand-picked by MAGA” — an ad that frustrated Suozzi and his allies, according to multiple sources. The reason: Democratic critics were worried about giving her credence with the GOP base and energizing Trump supporters in a low-turnout election.
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